Affirmed

Three Kentucky Derby (G1) starters return to action in Saturday’s $100,000
Affirmed H. (G3), and the 1 1/16-mile distance will be much more to the liking of
CAUSE TO BELIEVE (Maria’s Mon) than the longer routes of his last two starts.
We’ll give him top billing in this very competitive event.

Despite being bred to run much farther, Cause to Believe showed a preference
for sprints last year, compiling a 6-4-2-0 mark, and opened 2006 with a solid
second behind Too Much Bling (Rubiano) in the six-furlong San Miguel S. Jerry
Hollendorfer then pointed the gray colt to a pair of 1 1/16-mile stakes, and
Cause to Believe responded with a pair of solid wins in the El Camino Real Derby
(G3) and California Derby. He regressed when stretching out to nine furlongs in
the Illinois Derby (G2), finishing a disappointing third behind runner-up Mister
Triester (Old Trieste), and then lacked a rally in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby
(G1) after getting a fast pace set-up that should have at least enabled him to
finish in the top 12. He didn’t want to run that far, and Hollendorfer resisted
the temptation to send him to the Belmont S. (G1) even though Cause to Believe
was training great. That decision could reap immediate dividends on Saturday.
Cause to Believe has proved that he can win off a fast or moderate pace, and the
confirmed closer can rate within a few lengths of slow fractions and still
deliver his best run. He owns a field-best 102 BRIS Speed rating and will offer
better value than his main rivals. We like his chances.

POINT DETERMINED (Point Given) wasn’t able to run his best race on Kentucky
Derby Day, but he’s had time to regroup under the direction of Bob Baffert and
has drilled several impressive workouts recently. Runner-up in both the Santa
Anita Derby (G1) and San Felipe S. (G2), the bay colt will be stalking the pace
under new jockey Victor Espinoza and has proven that he can finish, registering Late
Pace numbers of 113 and 100 for those aforementioned second-place finishes.
Point Determined looks very live.

ARSON SQUAD (Brahms) stretches out in distance off a third in the Lazaro
Barrera Memorial S. (G2), his first attempt in a graded stakes, and is eligible
to improve significantly off that effort. Trained by Bruce Headley, the dark bay
gelding broke his maiden impressively three starts back and posted a sharp 1
3/4-length decision in the San Pedro S. next out. We’ve seen plenty of lightly
raced California-based three-year-olds improve by leaps and bounds at this point
of the year (Tiznow and Surf Cat [Sir Cat] immediately come to mind), and Arson
Squad appears to own plenty of talent as well as respectable Speed ratings. He’s
an intriguing upset proposition.

A. P. WARRIOR (A.P. Indy) gets a jockey switch to David Flores and looms as a
wire-to-wire threat. The dark bay colt did break his maiden over the track
first-time out last July, but he disappointed with a fourth in the Hollywood
Futurity (G1) and has run his best races at Santa Anita. We wouldn’t be
surprised to see A. P. Warrior turn things around, but we’ll try to beat him.

RECORD (Devil His Due) rallied gamely to win the Derby Trial S. last out but
remains winless in two previous starts around two turns. The dark bay colt has
never earned a triple-digit Speed rating and faces a stiff class check here, but
the Baffert-trained colt owns room for improvement and could surprise us with a
strong showing. SHOOTER’S TOUCH (Touch Gold) looks a bit overmatched in this
spot.