Northern Dancer BC

Saturday’s Northern Dancer Breeders’ Cup S. (G3) on the “Stephen Foster Super
Saturday” card at Churchill Downs features a good group of three-year-olds. Four
of the seven horses in the 1 1/16-mile main track event are trained by either Steve Asmussen or Todd Pletcher, and we’re going to tab the Asmussen-trained PRIVATE
VOW (Broken Vow) for all the money.

Private Vow defeated the Pletcher-trained HIGH COTTON (Dixie Union) by 2 1/4
lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) over this track last
fall. He began this season with a dull seventh-place effort in the Rebel S. (G3),
but then rebounded with a nice third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G2)
before encountering a world of traffic and running 15th in the Kentucky Derby
(G1). The dark bay has excellent tactical speed and is well drawn on the rail
for a ground-saving trip around the first turn. Private Vow is arguably the
class of the race and should return to his winning ways in this spot.

CIRCLE THE WORLD (Fusaichi Pegasus), an undefeated colt trained by Pletcher,
could complete the exacta. The bay, out of 1999 Spinaway S. (G1) heroine Circle
of Life (Belong to Me), broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park,
running seven furlongs in 1:22 3/5, good for a BRIS Speed rating of 96. In his
first start against winners, he stalked the early running from the outside, then
edged away in the lane, winning a 7 1/2- furlong allowance by open lengths on
this track last out. Circle the World faces a class question, but is nicely
drawn on the outside for a look-see trip under Rafael Bejarano.

The other Asmussen trainee, ADMIRAL’S ARCH (High Yield), is a solid late
runner. The dark bay closed determinedly to win the Northern Spur Breeders’ Cup
S. at Oaklawn Park, then was too close to the early pace before running third in
the Lone Star Derby (G3) last out. Admiral’s Arch appears to be improving and is
a seasoned two-turn closer. He could light the board at square odds.

SAYHELLOTOLARRY (Victory Gallop), a back-to-back winner going 1 1/16 miles at
Oaklawn Park earlier this year, is our longshot special. In his most recent
outing, the bay finished eighth in the Arkansas Derby after breaking from
post 13. He projects an inside stalking trip here, and could add value to the
exotics at 20-1 on the morning line. In addition, Calvin Borel, who is having a
good meet, rides.

High Cotton was an impressive, front-running winner of the 1 1/16-mile Sir
Barton S. at Pimlico in his last start, but has yet to put together two
consecutive victories. He has the look of a need-to-lead type and is winless in
two starts over this track. High Cotton could be an underlay at 5-2 on the
morning line. SIMON PURE (Silver Deputy), who is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, gets
a key rider change to Julien Leparoux. The speedy dark bay finished a good
fourth in the Arkansas Derby, but then was defeated by CIELO GOLD (Conquistador
Cielo) in his last start. He is hard to gauge. Cielo Gold closed from far back
to defeat Simon Pure at odds of 21-1 in his latest. He faces serious class
questions here.