HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 25, 2006
by Dick Powell
One down and one to go. As if there was any doubt that LAVA MAN (Slew City
Slew) was already the champion older male of 2006, he went and clinched it with
a dominating win in the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar last Sunday and
completed a sweep of the three Southern California 10-furlong marquee races
for older horses on the dirt.
Now, the only question left to be answered is has he clinched Horse of the
Year honors? I know it’s only August, but he was that good.
Breaking from post 2 with Corey Nakatani aboard under the weight-for-age
conditions going 1 1/4 miles, Lava Man looked a bit rank in the run down the
homestretch the first time as he cocked his head to the outside. Like many
California riders in two-turn races, Nakatani was not going to go to the rail
until he was ready to and he kept him a few paths off the inside while Victor
Espinoza applied early pressure with Preachinatthebar (Silver Charm). They
covered the first quarter in :23.28 and then quickened some on the clubhouse turn
with a :23.51 second quarter.
Espinoza was not going to let Nakatani rest on Lava Man and kept up the
pressure down the backstretch. Alex Solis, not wanting to get caught behind the
top two on Magnum (Arg) (El Compinche), made an early move down the backstretch when
Jon Court loomed to his outside aboard Super Frolic (Pine Bluff).
Going into the far turn, we had four horses battling up front with Lava Man
on the rail, Preachinatthebar to his outside, Magnum between horses three wide
and Super Frolic four wide. The pace, over a track that was not playing
especially fast, was still good and as soon as you might say to yourself
“anyone’s race,” Nakatani chirped to Lava Man at the three-eighths pole and the race
was over.
In the blink of an eye, Lava Man separated himself from the trio chasing him
and opened up a commanding lead before they hit the top of the stretch. The only
danger would be from off the pace, and Garrett Gomez had Good Reward (Storm Cat)
in a drive that never threatened but would be good enough to get second behind
Lava Man. Super Frolic was a wide-trip third. Lava Man’s final time of 2:01.62
earned only a BRIS Speed rating of 104, but you had to watch it to really
appreciate his effort.
Lava Man has now won the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic, the
Santa Anita H. (G1), the Khaled S. for California-breds on the turf, the Charles Whittingham
Memorial H. (G1) on the turf, the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) and
the Pacific Classic (G1). With four Grade 1 stakes races at a mile and a quarter, three on dirt and one on turf,
his season is threatening Spectacular Bid (1980) and Cigar (1995) as the best campaign for
an older horse in a long time.
He has run 1 1/8 miles on the turf in 1:44 1/5 and 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in
2:00 2/5 while toting highweight. Claimed for $50,000 by Doug O’Neill as a
three-year-old,
Lava Man has now earned $3,504,706. With his ability to run on turf or dirt, he
gives O’Neill many choices in how to bring him up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic
(G1) at Churchill on the first Saturday in November.
And, therein lies the rub. Lava Man’s best races have come in Southern
California and he is a question mark in taking his game on the road. All things
being equal, his accomplishments this year should have already clinched Horse of
the Year honors. Unless BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) can win the Travers S. (G1)
this Saturday and then impressively beat older horses, including Lava Man, at
the Breeders’ Cup, the trophy is Lava Man’s to lose. Being a gelding, he should
be around for a while.
Earlier on the Del Mar card on Sunday, SIREN LURE (Joyeux Danseur) rallied
from dead last to win the Pat O’Brien Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2 1/4
lengths and fortified his position as the best sprinter on the West Coast.
I love to use pedigrees in my handicapping and it’s not always to my
advantage. I tend to fall in love with well-bred horses that are full of
potential and often times am beat by horses that are in good form no matter who
their mommy and daddy are.
Liking PINE ISLAND (Arch) to win the Alabama S. (G1) last Saturday didn’t
take much research on my BRIS American Produce Records CD-ROM. Off a second in
the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) in July and making only her fifth career
start, the Shug McGaughey-trained filly looked like she would have this group at
her mercy.
The public agreed and made her the 11-10 favorite against eight rivals. The
only doubt about her winning was when Teammate (A.P. Indy) turned for home with
a clear lead and at 15-1 it briefly looked like Hall of Fame trainer Allen
Jerkens was pulling off another big Saratoga upset, but Pine Island was coming
fast and won by 1 1/4 lengths. She covered the 10 furlongs in 2:02.87 and
earned a hefty BRIS Speed rating of 107.
Sired by Arch (Kris S.), who had a big weekend as his ARRAVALE (Arch) won
the Del Mar Oaks (G1), Pine Island is out of Matlacha Pass (Seeking the Gold),
who only won twice in a brief career for the Phipps Stable but is a full sister
to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Pleasant Home (Seeking the Gold) and
multiple Grade 2 winner Country Hideaway (Seeking the Gold).
Matlacha Pass’ dam was the unraced Our Country Place (Pleasant Colony). And
here is where the story gets real interesting. Our Country Place was a daughter
of Maplejinsky (Nijinsky II), who won the Alabama in 1988. Maplejinsky’s first
foal was the great Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom), who among her nine Grade 1 stakes
wins was the Triple Tiara for three-year-old fillies.
Maplejinsky’s dam was Gold Beauty (Mr. Prospector), who won the Test S. (G2) at Saratoga in 1982 and then later that year beat males in the Fall Highweight
H. (G2).
Besides having a female family that has an Alabama winner that produced an
Alabama winner with her first foal to race, the question that surfaces when
examining Pine Island’s pedigree is how did the Phipps acquire it.
In 1993, Our Country Place was consigned to the Keeneland July Yearling Sale
by Howard and Susan Kaskel’s Sugar Maple Farm, who owned and raced Maplejinsky.
Sky Beauty, her half-sister, had already won the Triple Tiara in
New York and with a deep female family that had an Alabama winner as her first
dam and a Test winner as her second dam, the Pleasant Colony filly
figured to bring big bucks as a broodmare prospect alone.
Just prior to the sale, Our Country Place failed one of the pre-sale
examinations and was scratched. Seth Hancock privately purchased her on behalf
of the Phipps Stable and they had another well-bred filly added to their ranks.
Our Country Place was a big, gangly filly that never filled into her frame. I once asked NYRA TV personality Jan Rushton, who used to gallop
horses for Shug McGaughey, how she was doing. After an incredulous look and
wanting to know how I knew about her, Jan said that she was going to be rested
and brought back at Gulfstream the next year at three. Our Country Place never
did race, but the real show was about to begin.
All of her foals have been similar to her in that they are all tall and
leggy. But with the athletic ability passed on by sires like Seeking the Gold,
they have had the best of both worlds. With five of her six foals being fillies,
and one already producing an Alabama winner, Our Country Place could be the next
Phipps blue hen broodmare.