Falls City J

AMERICAN GRADED STAKES
PREVIEWS

Eight fillies and mares have been entered to go in Thursday’s Falls City H.
(G2) at Churchill Downs, and the nine-furlong test will be the final career
start for SUMMERLY (Summer Squall), winner of last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1).
The chestnut filly was recently purchased from the Fasig-Tipton November sale for
$3.3 million by WinStar Farm and will enter the breeding shed next year. Though
we hope Summerly will get a win to round out her career, we can’t pick the
four-year-old miss based on her current form. Instead, we’re going with ERMINE
(Exchange Rate) to come out on top.

Trained by Ronny Werner, Ermine is no stranger to Churchill, running second
in her career debut over the track and finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths in this
year’s Kentucky Oaks. The chestnut lass captured the Honeybee S. at Oaklawn
Park prior to her Oaks run, and most recently posted an easy front-running
seven-length win back at Churchill. Ermine earned a 104 BRIS Speed rating for
that effort and keeps Calvin Borel, who is winning at a 21 percent clip of late,
in the saddle. We think the pair will be getting their pictures taken after this
event.

SEA SIREN (Stormy Atlantic) returns here off a more than two-month break, but
layoffs haven’t affected the bay four-year-old in the past. Trained by Ralph
Nicks, she made her last start a four-length victory in the Arlington Matron H.
(G3), earning a 101 Speed rating as well as a 102 BRIS E2 Pace figure. Sea Siren
captured an allowance at Churchill in early July by 6 1/2 lengths and had been
working well over the track to prepare for this one. If she gets away with an
uncontested lead under Cornelio Velasquez, Sea Siren will be tough to run down.

Summerly was a dominant force in the three-year-old ranks last season, but
hasn’t been quite the same since returning this year. She was an easy one-length victress in the Ashado
S. in her first start back, but has badly dropped her two races since then, the
Ruffian H. (G1) and Spinster S. (G1). With those events coming against some of
the best in this year’s distaff division, Summerly could show more
against this field. If she regains even a hair of last year’s form, the
chestnut miss can go out a winner. Shaun Bridgmohan has the call.

SANGRITA (Mr. Greeley) won the Chilukki S. (G2) most recently, that one
coming after an easy 3 3/4-length victory in an allowance. The bay sophomore has
been going well of late and could spring the win under Rafael Bejarano. JOINT
EFFORT (Runaway Groom) won a Grade 3 at Churchill in the summer, but threw in
two subpar efforts in her subsequent starts. She rebounded well to
finish second in the Chilukki last out and could show up in the top three again here.

CURSORA (Arg) (Candy Stripes), a multiple Group 1 winner in her native
Argentina, finished well back in her only try against U.S. stakes competition
and might not be able to challenge in this spot while switching to the dirt.
SILMARIL (Diamond) earned a 104 Speed rating when taking a Laurel sprint stakes
last out, but hasn’t done so well when stretching out. We’ll go against.
CRYPTOQUIP (Cryptoclearance) has been going well of late, but doesn’t seem to
own the numbers to be competitive against these. We’ll let her beat us.