HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 17, 2006
by Dick Powell
Lost amid the Breeders Cup XXIII doings was an amazing event in Australia
that shows how good international racing is. Three days after seeing horses bred
in England, Ireland and Argentina win three of the eight Breeders’ Cup races,
the Japanese invaded Down Under and swept the top two spots in the two-mile
Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1).
Before a crowd of more than 120,000 at Flemington Race Course, DELTA BLUES
(Dance in the Dark) nosed out stablemate Pop Rock (Helissio) in a thrilling
stretch duel. Trying to describe 23 horses going two miles would take up too
much space on BRIS’ server, but here’s what you need to know.
Yeats (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells), the Irish shipper from Aidan O’Brien’s yard, stalked
the pace as the highweight of 130 pounds. Rather than wait as long as he could,
Kieren Fallon inexplicably moved him up to engage the leaders with five furlongs
to run. Needless to say, he came up empty in the long stretch and it was the
worst ride by Fallon since he rode Ouija Board (GB) (Cape Cross [Ire]) in the
Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) last March. It was quite a come down for Fallon,
who bragged to photographers all week that they were looking at the Melbourne
Cup winner when they were shooting Yeats. And, as if the hole he was digging wasn’t
deep enough, Fallon was quoted after the race that O’Brien brought the wrong
horse to Australia and should have shipped last year’s St Leger (Eng-G1) winner
Scorpion (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]).
While Fallon was moving prematurely, Yasunari Iwata, aboard Delta Blues, went
to the front, yielded to Zabeat (Rhythm), and then waited while his more
experienced rival self-destructed. Iwata made the first run turning for home and
hung on grimly as his stablemate Pop Rock bore down on him.
Expertly trained by Katsuhiko Sumii, the two Japanese-bred horses both
prepped in the Caulfield Cup (Aus-G1) 18 days earlier, and they battled to the
wire in the Melbourne Cup with lots of contact between them. Despite carrying
seven more pounds than Pop Rock, Delta Blues held on by a nose in 3:21.47 —
three-hundredths of a second ahead of Pop Rock. None of the other closers were
able to threaten in the stretch with Maybe Better (Interglaze) a distant third.
Favored Tawqeet (Kingmambo) pulled up lame in 19th place, but the Melbourne Cup
television show did a great job informing us about rumors about him having a
hoof problem prior to the race.
The stewards took a look at the stretch replay and determined that the
bumping that happened was caused by Damien Oliver aboard Pop Rock, who bore in
on Delta Blues, and suspended Oliver for 15 meetings. Had Pop Rock prevailed he
definitely would have come down.
After the race, Iwata was overcome with emotion and wept continually.
Speaking little English, and having trouble getting any words out, he summed it
up best: “Very happy, super horse.”
For trainer Sumii, it was the culmination of an ambitious, exacting plan that
left no detail to chance. With Australia’s strict quarantine rules, he fed his
horses Australian feed for months to get them ready for what they were going to
eat when they arrived. He also shipped in early, got them acclimated and ran in
the Caulfield Cup as a prep race to have them razor-sharp on Cup day.
With little chance of beating Deep Impact (Sunday Silence) back home in
Japan, Sumii targeted the Melbourne Cup and its $5 million purse and showed how
good Japanese horses are.
Delta Blues went off at odds of 15-1 in the North American betting pool and
he was very playable if you bothered to download the Oze speed ratings that are
available in the Australian Racing Information section of Brisnet.com. Even
though he finished third in the blanket finish of the Caulfield Cup, he earned
the highest Oze speed figure of anyone in the field.
Now here’s where it gets interesting and why it pays to follow international
races. Delta Blues ran in the Tenno Sho (Spring) (Jpn-G1) two races back when he
was beaten 14 lengths by Deep Impact. In fact, in three races against Deep
Impact, Delta Blues was never able to get closer than six lengths.
Coming up on Thanksgiving weekend in the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1), Deep Impact will
be back on the track in his first appearance since crossing the wire in third in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) last month in Paris. Expected to face him will be
Heart’s Cry (Sunday Silence), winner of the Dubai Sheema Classic in March
and then a great third in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond S.
(Eng-G1) at Ascot this summer, and Ouija Board, winner of her second Breeders’
Cup Filly & Mare Turf S. (G1) and recently voted 2007 Cartier Horse of the Year.
Ouija Board was second to Intercontinental (GB) in last year’s Filly & Mare
Turf at Belmont before shipping to Japan where she was fifth, beaten two
lengths. She then finished up last year with a resounding win in the Hong Kong
Vase (HK-G1). This year, trainer Ed Dunlop is following the same path with the
Japan Cup and Hong Kong Vase as her final career starts. Who says they don’t
make horses like they used to?
All of this is what led me to pick Red Rocks (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) in the
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). Red Rocks was a good second behind Rail Link (Dansili
[GB]) at 1 1/2 miles in the Grad Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) in late July. Rail Link
came back to win the Arc, defeating Pride (Peintre Celebre), one of the great
staying mares in Europe who came back from the Arc and won the Champion S.
(Eng-G1); Deep Impact, whose already stellar form was fortified by the Melbourne
Cup result; Hurricane Run (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]), who won last year’s Arc; and
Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun), who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. It was a great
field going in and a great field coming out, so running two lengths behind Rail
Link at 12 furlongs in fast time was enough for me to pick Red Rocks in this
year’s Turf.
In this year’s Japan Cup, Deep Impact has a great chance to avenge his loss
to Heart’s Cry last December and take on Ouija Board
on his home turf. He probably was a short horse in the Arc off a long layoff and
he did not get the greatest ride from Yutake Take that day. If he’s the horse
that I say he is, Deep Impact will win handily despite the competition.
Following international racing has many benefits. You have an advantage when
shippers come to America with a familiarity of the horses they have been
competing against. Recent events show that no race in the world is safe from
outside horses and that trend is only going to continue. In fact, the Aussies
are afraid that there will be more invaders winning their biggest races and
pushing their home horses aside.
For me, especially with America’s top horses racing so infrequently,
international racing has exposed me to many great superstars and racing seasons
that fill in the blanks of our year-round racing. Even though winter is coming,
there are still major races in Asia coming up followed closely by the fantastic
racing in Dubai where many of the world’s best convene.
It pays to pay
attention.