Apple Blossom

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

A contentious field of eight has been assembled to go 1 1/16 miles in
Saturday’s $500,000 Apple Blossom H. (G1) at Oaklawn Park, and we think ERMINE
(Exchange Rate) will finally break out of her current case of seconditis with a
win here. The Ronny Werner-trained four-year-old tailed off a bit during late
summer/early fall last year, but rebounded in a big way when taking the Falls
City H. (G2) at Churchill Downs in late November. In two starts this year, the
chestnut lass has run second in the Santa Maria H. (G1) and Santa Margarita
Invitational H. (G1) while earning a 100 BRIS Speed rating each time. Ermine
broke her maiden at Oaklawn last season before taking
the Honeybee S., and she loves the 8 1/2-furlong distance (5-3-1-0). She’ll be
tough to deny in this spot with Eddie Castro aboard.

RAHYS’ APPEAL (Rahy) could add some value to the top three with Alex Solis in
the saddle. The Tom Bush charge was a three-length winner of the Top Flight H.
(G2) in November, but was disqualified and placed second
that day. She returned in early January to finish second in the San Gorgonio H.
(G2), then was third, just three parts of a length back of Ermine, in the Santa
Maria most recently. Rahys’ Appeal owns nice numbers and has been working
bullets going five furlongs ( :59 2/5 on March 31 and :59 3/5 on March 20) over Belmont Park’s
training track to prepare for this start. The five-year-old mare could surprise
with the win here while coming off a two-month break.

ROUND POND (Awesome Again) returned off her 5 1/2-length Breeders’ Cup
Distaff (G1) score to run fourth in the March 11 Rampart H. (G2) while earning
the second lowest Speed rating of her career (90). Trainer Michael Matz revealed
soon after the race that the five-year-old mare had tied up the week before, so
we can throw out the Rampart. The bay loves Oaklawn, taking the 2005 Honeybee, Fantasy S. (G2) and last year’s Azeri Breeders’ Cup S. (G3) over the Hot
Springs, Arkansas, track, and she’s yet to finish worse than second from five
tries at the distance. Despite all that, we still feel that Round Pond is a bit
vulnerable in the spot and will try to beat her, but she should still be
included in the exotics. Edgar Prado has the return call.

TAKE D’ TOUR (Tour d’Or) either won easily or lost big last year for trainer
David Fawkes. The chestnut mare earned century-topping Speed ratings while
taking such events as the Ogden Phipps H. (G1) and Shuvee H. (G2) as well as
finishing second in the Ruffian H. (G1). She was second in the Sunshine Millions
Distaff in her first start of the year last out, but that came after a
dominating 14-length score in the December 30 Stage Door Betty H. (G3). Take D’
Tour could easily take this one, but we’re going to give the six-year-old another race
before backing for the win. Eibar Coa will be in the saddle doing his best to
prove us wrong.

BAGHDARIA (Royal Academy) won three Grade 3 events last year and made her
2007 debut a 7 1/4-length victory in the Sweetheart S. in early March. She
doesn’t own quite the same numbers as others in here, but the bay filly could
still show up in the bottom of the gimmicks under Eusebio Razo Jr. INDIA (Hennessy)
has won three stakes in a row, including the local prep for this event, the
Azeri Breeders’ Cup, and could earn part in her second start of the year.

Last year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner, LEMONS FOREVER (Lemon Drop Kid), has
yet to win after taking that nine-furlong test and we don’t see her doing so
here. We’ll let her beat us in her 2007 bow. RIVER SAVAGE (Brz) (First American) hasn’t been
able to challenge against others in here in the past and probably won’t be able
to do so here.