HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 6, 2007
by Dick Powell
So here’s how international the Dubai World Cup card was. The Dubai World Cup
(UAE-G1) was won by INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes), an Argentine-bred that began
his racing career in Uruguay where he won his first five races, was purchased by
Sheikh Hamdan Bin Rashid al Maktoum, shipped to America to be trained by Kiaran
McLaughlin, was then shipped to Dubai for last year’s U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2)
where he suffered his lone loss, was shipped back to America where he ran the
table with four Grade 1 stakes wins including the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1),
was voted Horse of the Year, began this year with a thrilling win in the Donn H.
(G1) and then returned to Dubai for this year’s World Cup.
The Dubai Duty Free (UAE-G1) was won by ADMIRE MOON (End Sweep), a
Japanese-bred who won two Grade 2 events in Japan last year, was placed there in
Grade 1 company, shipped to Hong Kong in December and just missed winning the
Hong Kong Cup (HK-G1) where he rallied furiously to lose by a nose to the best
racemare in the world, Pride, and won the Kyoto Kinen (Jpn-G2) in his last start
in Japan where he beat Pop Rock (Helissio), who just missed winning the
Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) in Australia last November when Japanese-bred and trained
stablemates finished first and second.
In the Sheema Classic (UAE-G1), VENGEANCE OF RAIN (Zabeel), a New
Zealand-bred that has raced most of his career in Hong Kong and won the Hong
Kong Cup in 2005 over Pride, ran third in the 2006 renewal behind Pride and
Admire Moon and won the Hong Kong Gold Cup (HK-G1) last month when he beat
BULLISH LUCK (Royal Academy).
The Golden Shaheen (UAE-G1) was won as usual by an American sprinter, this
time KELLY’S LANDING, a giant son of the tiny Patton (Lord at War [Arg]) that
was ridden to perfection by Italian-born Lanfranco Dettori.
The U.A.E Derby was dominated by ASIATIC BOY (Not for Sale), an
Argentine-bred that began his career in Argentina, shipped to Dubai after being
purchased by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, won three races at the
Dubai International Racing Carnival by more than16 lengths and is trained and
ridden by South Africans Michael De Kock and Weichong Marwing. Third in the
Derby was Adil (Torrey Canyon), a sophomore colt that was bred, owned and
trained in Saudi Arabia.
It was truly a spectacular night of international racing that fulfilled all
the dreams of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who designed the World Cup
day years ago to attract the world’s best horses and bring the attention of the
sporting world to Dubai each March.
The main track was favoring speed all night, and from post 1, it looked like
Frankie Dettori would have a major pace advantage with Discreet Cat (Forestry)
in the World Cup. When the horses arrived in the walking ring, Discreet Cat
showed up with four very-hard-to-see black bandages on. He looked fine and
warmed up fine but off the long layoff, trying 10 furlongs for the first time,
it was not what you wanted to see.
Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap) looked like his trip to Saudi Arabia did him no
harm, and he was on his toes in the walking ring. A special word of recognition
to Loretta Lusteg, John Kimmel’s assistant trainer, who did a fantastic job with
Premium Tap while in Saudi Arabia the past two months. He didn’t ship into Dubai
until Wednesday but was fit and ready to go.
Unfortunately for Premium Tap and his connections, he melted down at the
starting gate and would not load after repeated attempts. He reluctantly went in
when a blindfold was put on him and he was keyed up at the start. Having already
wasted a lot of energy, he dropped down at the start for Kent Desormeaux who
then did a masterful job of rationing his speed.
With Discreet Cat nowhere near the leaders, Premium Tap was on the lead
through 800 meters (about a half-mile) in :47.78 and 1,200 meters (about six
furlongs) in 1:11.55. Fernando Jara was taking his time with Invasor trying to
keep him relaxed and comfortable while racing away from the rail.
Premium Tap was running the race of his life and had the lead turning for
home with nearly three furlongs to run. Jara began to ask Invasor and, as usual,
the answer was affirmative. Even when running a final 400 meters in :24.70,
Premium Tap could not hold off the relentless Invasor, who surged to a 1
3/4-length win while covering the 2,000 meters in 1:59.97, the second-fastest
Dubai World Cup ever. Bullish Luck, making his dirt debut at the age of eight,
finished third.
Discreet Cat wound up last and after the race he scoped poorly with an
abscess found in his throat. Considering he didn’t lift a leg and showed none of
the cruising speed he showed last year, the excuse seems legitimate.
Invasor can now be deemed a great horse in every sense of the word. He has
beaten the best in the Classic and World Cup and has shown that he will win no
matter where the track is or what condition it is in. Pat Day used to say that
Java Gold wanted to win so bad that he would run over glass, and the same
accolade applies to Invasor. It was a great training job by Kiaran McLaughlin
whose team exudes class.
Admire Moon won the Dubai Duty Free, but Linngari (Indian Ridge) may have been
best. He rallied late to miss by a half-length and galloped by the winner like
he was standing still after the wire. Admire Moon seems to be getting better
with distance and it will be interesting to see if winning rider Yutaka Take
gets a shot at redemption in Paris this October if they send him to the Prix de
l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1).
I had my doubt about Vengeance of Rain’s ability to get 2,400 meters (about 1
1/2 miles), and he could not have proven me any more wrong. Not only did he
sustain his run through the lane in the Sheema Classic, but after the wire he
galloped out 10 lengths ahead of the rest. Dubai TV shows some interesting
replay angles and when I watched the Sheema Classic again, I saw Vengeance of
Rain crowded on the rail throughout with his head cocked sideways for much of
the trip.
When it was time to go turning for home, he cruised to the lead and never
looked back.
Kelly’s Landing was a hard horse to come up with even though American horses
dominate the Golden Shaheen. His BRIS Speed ratings seemed a cut below his
American rivals and his last race was very poor. But he seized the lead late and
held off the rallying Friendly Island (Crafty Friend).
National Colour (National Assembly) lost all chance when she went to her nose
at the start. Japanese sprinter Seeking the Best (Seeking the Gold) looked
fantastic in the walking ring but broke in at the start, causing a chain
reaction that Harvard Avenue (You and I) took the worst of.
Asiatic Boy, this year’s Invasor, did his South American compatriot one
better by winning the Derby. Invasor’s only loss was the Derby last year when he
ran fourth behind Discreet Cat. Asiatic Boy, whose pedigree has traces of
Greentree and Meadow Stables in it, thoroughly dominated his rivals.
What was visually amazing about his win was that he was challenged on the
inside and outside early and still exploded in the lane when Marwing asked him
to go. His final time of 1:48.97 for the about 1 1/8 miles was excellent. With
four starts in Dubai the past three months, Asiatic Boy might be in need of a
rest, and it will be interesting to see when and where he shows up next.
Even though the races are run at metric distances and are slightly shorter
than ours, the starting gate is placed at the exact start of the race with no
run-up like we have here. In the Golden Shaheen, world-class sprinters took
24.09 seconds to cover the first 400 meters. The website www.emiratesracing.com
gives you sectional times for all the runners for each 200 meters of the race,
and you can quickly see that the early fractions are unusually slow because of
this.