KEENELAND DAILY NOTEBOOK
APRIL 6, 2007
Opening Day Preview
by Brian P. Turner
It was just a little more than 70 years ago that Keeneland Race Course first
opened its gates to Thoroughbred racing fans in Lexington, Kentucky. From the
outset, Keeneland was a unique venture in racing as it was the brain child of
renowned horseman J.O. “Jack” Keene who began work on the track in 1916,
envisioning a gathering place for himself and his friends to meet and race their
horses for the simple enjoyment of the sport.
The magnitude of the enterprise eventually depleted Keene’s resources, but it
was at this time that a group of Lexington horsemen and businessmen stepped in
and raised the money to purchase the property from Keene. They shared Keene’s
vision of a track that put racing above all else so from the outset, Keeneland
was set up as a non-profit organization to ensure that business decisions never
outweighed the racing itself. To this day, the profits go into the maintenance
of the track, the purses, to charity and back into the city of Lexington.
Since its inception, Keeneland has always been at the forefront of technology
in the racing industry. And that’s never been more apparent than last fall when
the venerable Central Kentucky track installed the synthetic surface Polytrack
with tremendous across-the-board success. Average field sizes for the 2006 fall
meet rose noticeably as an average of 10.02 horses went to the gate in each
race, compared to 9.21 in 2005 and 8.97 in 2004. The change also had an impact
at the windows as Keeneland set a fall meet record for all sources handle as
well as a single-day all sources handle record.
As for the reason Polytrack was installed to begin with, the safety of the
horses, there was only one fatal breakdown in the fall, compared with three in
the fall of 2005 and six in the same period in 2004. Though the surface thus far
appears to be safer at Keeneland, the average times for the various distances
contested over the surface didn’t suffer at all and actually improved. For
example, the average time for a six-furlong race at Keeneland in 2004 was 1:10
3/5. In 2005, it was a pedestrian 1:12 4/5. In the fall of 2006, the average
time recorded was 1:10 1/5. As for 1 1/16-mile races, the average time was 1:46
1/5 in 2004 and 1:48 3/5 in 2005. In the fall of 2006, the average time fell to
1:44 2/5.
On Friday, Keeneland will open its gates for the 15-day spring meeting. Over
the course of the meet, Keeneland will offer at least one stakes race a day and
a total of 18 stakes. Fifteen of these are graded, with three carrying Grade 1
status. The highlight of the meet will come on April 14 when Keeneland offers
three graded stakes races, highlighted by the $750,000 Blue Grass S. (G1) for
three-year-olds going nine furlongs. With Kentucky Derby (G1) hopefuls Hard Spun
(Danzig), Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]), Great Hunter (Aptitude), and Any
Given Saturday (Distorted Humor) all aiming to make this their final start
before the first Saturday in May, this could prove to be the most competitive
Blue Grass in years.
The Ashland S. (G1) will be contested on Saturday and this event seems to
always hold implications for the Kentucky Oaks (G1). In 2005, Summerly finished
a well beaten fourth in the Ashland before returning to claim the victory in the
Oaks by two lengths. Ashado finished second in the 2004 Ashland before winning
the Oaks next out.
The final Grade 1 offering of the meet is the Royal Chase for the Sport of
Kings H., which will be contested at about 20 furlongs over national fences.
For horseplayers, Keeneland is a dream come true as the track has one of the
lowest takeouts in the country. The win, place and show takeout is only 16
percent, and it’s 19 percent for exotic wagers. Keeneland also offers the
extremely popular 10 cent superfecta as well as a 50 cent Pick 4 wager, allowing
the frugal bettor a chance at some nice payoffs with a minimal investment.
With all the tremendous purse money offered in the spring, Keeneland will
have one of the finest jockey colonies in the country on hand and with all the
stakes races, most of the top tier jockeys who are not based locally will
probably at least make an appearance. The last two meets though have proven to
be a slugfest between Julien Leparoux and Rafael Bejarano as the pair ended in a
tie atop the jockey standings last spring before Leparoux returned in the fall
to take the riding title by a score of 30-25. For wagering purposes though,
Bejarano backers were the true winners in the fall as his mounts provided a
surprising average win payoff of $13.20. A minimum $2 wager on all of his mounts
for the meet would have netted a profit of $90.
Shaun Bridgmohan definitely has the corner marketed on value as his winning
mounts provided an average payoff of $30.60 last spring and $28.20 in the fall.
A minimum $2 win wager on each of his mounts over the course of the last two
meets would have netted a profit of $419.
As for trainers, Nick Zito and Todd Pletcher battled it out last spring with
Zito coming out ahead by a score of 12-to-11. With the addition of Polytrack
last fall, Zito cut back drastically on the number of runners he sent to compete
at Keeneland, opening the door for Patrick Biancone, a major proponent of the
surface, to take home the training title with 11 winners. H. Graham Motion also
found quite a bit of success at Keeneland in the fall as he finished second in
the trainer standings with seven winners from 20 starters and an average win
payoff of $14.90.
Long-time handicappers of Keeneland found the surface change to be a bit
difficult to gauge as the long perceived speed bias that the track was known for
disappeared along with the “golden rail” that had carried so many apparently
beaten horses through the stretch and to the finish line in front. The rare
sight at Keeneland of a winner closing from out of the clouds suddenly became
common place in the fall and most times the speedier members of the field were
left just trying to hold on for a piece of the purse. This was especially true
earlier in the meet as race after race was won by horses from off the pace.
Several of the jockeys familiar with Polytrack felt it was due to the newness of
the surface and that the synthetic material was still puffy from lack of
traffic. This theory does hold some credence as during the last week of the
meet, the Polytrack began to play pretty fair. Still, it is probably a good idea
to observe for the first couple of days of the meet before plunging too deeply.
The turf, on the other hand, remained as consistent as ever as horses closing
from off the pace held the distinct advantage.
Opening Day Outlook – Friday, April 6
The Transylvania S. (G3) for three-year-olds going eight furlongs on the lawn
is the opening day feature. A field of 10 is set to go to the post and several
among the group appear to have a solid chance of making it into the winner’s
circle. MARCAVELLY (Johannesburg) will be making his first start since finishing
second in the Bourbon S. here at Keeneland last fall. Originally slated for the
lawn, the Bourbon was moved to the Polytrack, but the surface switch didn’t
affect the colt as he attempted to lead the field from gate-to-wire only to get
run down by the extremely talented Twilight Meteor (Smart Strike). Prior to
that, the bay had compiled a record of 3-2-1-0 on the turf, including a solid
second to Dreaming of Anna (Rahy) in the Summer S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine.
Marcavelly has displayed a versatile running style in the past which should
allow jockey Edgar Prado to have him well placed regardless of the pace scenario
that develops in front of him, leaving him in great position for the stretch
drive.
SEDGEFIELD (Smart Strike) will be coming back in less than two weeks after
finishing second in the Lane’s End S. (G2) at Turfway Park. The chestnut
overcame a bit of a troubled trip that day to finish 3 1/4 lengths behind one of
the top Derby hopefuls, Hard Spun (Danzig). Prior to that, the colt put in a
very nice effort on the grass in the Hallandale Beach S. at Gulfstream where he
stalked the pace throughout to miss by a half-length. COBRADOR (El Prado [Ire])
finished third last out in the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway and has run
well in each of his starts on the grass, including a third place effort against
allowance-company here last fall. In his third start off the layoff, the gray
could be sitting on a top effort.
CODEWORD (Ire) (Dansili [GB]) will be invading Keeneland from across the pond
as a bit of an unknown. Though he has put in some solid performances from time
to time in Europe against some respectable company, it is a bit tough to gauge
if they were on par with the best of these. EVERYMAN (Silver Deputy) rallied
from well off the pace and overcame a troubled trip to claim the victory by a
length last out at Tampa Bay Downs against allowance company. As previously
noted, Motion is always a threat at Keeneland and this one could prove capable
of crashing the boards at what should be a square price.
ROYAL WAR ACADEMY (Royal Academy) has run respectably in each of his starts
on the grass which includes a second place effort in the Mardi Gras S. at Fair
Grounds. Though he may be a bit outclassed for the win, the bay could pick hit
the board with his best. The connections of U D GHETTO (Honour and Glory) may be
hoping that this event is moved off the turf and onto the Polytrack as some of
his best efforts have come on that surface, including a win in the Kentucky Cup
Juvenile S. (G3) at Turfway Park. Since then, his luck has headed south though
as he has been beaten by a combined 58 lengths over the course of his last three
starts.
IN JEST (Dynaformer) has only one career start in which he stalked the pace
early on his way to an impressive 6 1/4-length turf score at Tampa Bay Downs.
The bay could be a factor with any improvement at all. CAJUN MON (Jambalaya
Jazz) will be trying the turf for the first time after attempting stakes-company
at Turfway in three of his last four starts. The gelding may be a bit
overmatched. LURE MY DAISY (Lure) is still a maiden and would definitely be a
surprise.
It appears it will be a chilly start to the meet as Friday’s forecast calls
for partly cloudy skies and a high of 45.
Friday’s Best Plays
4TH – YATE’S BLACK CAT (Black Minnaloushe) will be returning from a long
vacation in this 1 1/16-mile turf allowance event, but he should be tough to
handle if ready to roll after the layoff. It was nearly a year ago that the dark
bay rallied from just off the pace to miss by a half-length in the Forerunner S.
here at Keeneland against a very talented field of three-year-old turf runners,
and the fact that he has run well here in his only start over the course only
adds to his appeal. The four-year-old colt tops the field in BRIS Prime Power by
12 points and his best BRIS Speed rating on the grass also tops the field.
Jockey Garrett Gomez won 50 percent of the turf races he had a mount in last
fall, only adding to the list of things to like.
7TH – HER MAJESTY (Giant’s Causeway) will be making her first start since
finishing 13th, beaten by 29 lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
at Churchill Downs last November. Prior to that though, the dark bay overcame a
troubled trip to finish third in the Alcibiades S. (G2) here at Keeneland. The
three-year-old filly has been working forwardly over the Polytrack for her
return to racing, including a very solid clocking of :47 3/5 here on April 3,
and she is near the top of the field in both BRIS Prime Power and BRIS Class
rating. Trainer Patrick Biancone has quickly become a master on the Polytrack
and will undoubtedly have this filly sitting on her best effort.