Juvenile Diary

JUVENILE DIARY

OCTOBER 25, 2007

by Tom Joyce

Since the beginning of August, I have been recording my observations on the
two-year-old division in the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies Diary. Along the way,
I am pleased that I was able to identify a couple of diamonds in the rough,
including SMARTY DEB (Smart Strike), who will run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Fillies (G1). I first wrote about Smarty Deb after she had won the Barbara
Shinpoch S. at Emerald Downs. At the time, she was invisible on the national
radar screen.

As I wrote last year, the best advice I can give is to keep an open mind and
remain flexible. Some horses will be overbet and others will offer value. The
most important thing is to have fun and enjoy the unique spectacle that is
Thoroughbred horse racing.

JUVENILE

I’m going to take a stand against WAR PASS (Cherokee Run), the 5-2 morning
line favorite, and the two colts trained by Steve Asmussen — PYRO (Pulpit) and
KODIAK KOWBOY (Posse) — in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Those familiar with
my previous observations know why.

Tale of Ekati owns just one loss from three career starts (Ross Woodson/Horsephotos.com) I like TALE OF EKATI (Tale of the Cat) and WICKED STYLE (Macho Uno), followed by OLD MAN BUCK (Hold That Tiger), DIXIE CHATTER (Dixie Union) and SLEW’S TIZNOW (Tiznow). 1st — Tale of Ekati rates the edge due to his established form on a traditional dirt surface and his excellent four-furlong workout in a bullet :45 4/5 on Monday. He previously breezed one mile in 1:43 at Monmouth Park, and I don’t think you could ask for a better work pattern coming into this event. Despite being compromised from the get-go, Tale of Ekati emphatically won the Futurity S. (G2) at Belmont Park, and in his previous start, he galloped out in front of Ready’s Image (More Than Ready) in the Sanford S. (G2) at Saratoga. He clearly is a force to be reckoned with. 2nd — Wicked Style was very impressive winning both the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) on Polytrack. In the former, he broke from post 12, then rated in hand on the lead before quickly opening up on the field turning for home and easily drawing off to a 3 1/4-length victory. In the latter, he was pinned down on the rail while forwardly placed, opened a clear lead between calls in upper stretch, then dueled nip-and-tuck with Riley Tucker (Harlan’s Holiday) through the stretch to gamely prove best by a head. The only question is, will he run the same way on dirt? 3rd — Old Man Buck had an eventful trip before finishing a good third in the Breeders’ Futurity. The chestnut colt was forced very wide around the first turn, quickly advanced near the half-mile pole, then made a sweeping move to circle the field around the second turn before finishing determinedly. According to the Trakus information, Old Man Buck ran 62 feet more than the winner (Wicked Style) and 59 feet more than the runner-up (Slew’s Tiznow). He could surprise.

Longshots — Dixie Chatter was a good-looking winner of the Norfolk S.
(G1) on Cushion Track at Oak Tree. The bay colt settled nicely in midfield on
the outside in the run down the backstretch, advanced on the outside around the
far turn, then made a nifty move to the rail approaching the quarter-mile pole
before angling off the fence and splitting horses turning for home. Dixie
Chatter is an excellent sleeper, but like many of these, he will have to
transfer his form from a synthetic track to dirt. Slew’s Tiznow gamely
re-rallied under a hand ride along the inside to nip Old Man Buck for second in
the Breeders’ Futurity. It was a good performance, and at 15-1 on the morning
line, Slew’s Tiznow has some upset potential.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Like the Juvenile, I am going to take a stand against the morning-line
favorite in the Juvenile Fillies, the Bob Baffert-trained INDIAN BLESSING
(Indian Charlie), who is listed at 3-1. Had her stablemate, CRY AND CATCH ME
(Street Cry [Ire]), not been withdrawn on Wednesday, I would have played against
her as well. Those familiar with my previous observations know why.

Smart Deb successfully stepped up in distance to take an Emerald Downs stakes (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com) I am going to swing for the fences with the obscure longshot Smarty Deb, after all this is the Breeders’ Cup. Following her, I like IZARRA (Distorted Humor), and to a lesser extent, A TO THE CROFT (Menifee), BACKSEAT RHYTHM (El Corredor), GRACE ANATOMY (Aldebaran), PROUD SPELL (Proud Citizen) and, finally, IRISH SMOKE (Smoke Glacken). 1st — Smarty Deb has won her last two starts around two turns and most recently defeated males in the Gottstein Futurity at Emerald Downs, running the 1 1/16-mile distance in a solid 1:42 2/5. The well-bred filly is undefeated in four starts and likes to settle in midfield before launching her rally. Smarty Deb shipped to Monmouth Park more than two weeks ago and has breezed twice over the surface — once in the mud, and most recently under her regular rider Ricky Frazier. She will no doubt be tested for class, but in my opinion, has the potential to win at enormous odds. 2nd — Izarra was hard held early, settled nicely, advanced four or five wide around the second turn, then closed determinedly to just miss in the Oak Leaf S. (G1). The highly promising Ron McAnally trainee has the look of a top-class filly and figures to come running late if she can transfer her form to dirt. 3rd — A to the Croft finished a closing second in the Adirondack S. (G2) and the Spinaway S. (G1) at Saratoga, then was much closer to the early pace before rallying for runner-up honors in the Alcibiades S. (G1) at Keeneland. The chestnut filly is a solid late finisher who could finally break through for all the money.

Longshots — Backseat Rhythm defeated Alcibiades winner Country Star
(Empire Maker) on the turf at Belmont Park and then closed well for runner-up
honors in the Frizette S. (G1). She ran by the winner, Indian Blessing, on the
gallop out, and should relish the extra distance. She is an intriguing sleeper.
Grace Anatomy tried to bite the starting gate, broke slowly, then took the lead
in midstretch before finishing a close third in the Alcibiades. She has some
upset potential. Proud Spell was a nice off-the-pace winner of the Matron S.
(G2) and recorded an excellent workout on Monday at Delaware Park. Irish Smoke
finished last as the favorite in the Alcibiades, but that was too bad to be
true. She won her first two, including the Spinaway, on her own volition and
could redeem herself with a return to form.

JUVENILE TURF

There are several horses I have mentioned with regard to the inaugural running
of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. CHEROKEE TRIANGLE (Cherokee Run) ran
lights out to win the Sunday Silence S. by 10 3/4 lengths at Louisiana Downs and
is my top selection. GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat) closed with a burst of
speed to win the Bourbon S. at Keeneland and could be a potential star. THE
LEOPARD (Storm Cat) rated nicely on the lead before accelerating in the lane
to win the Pilgrim S. at Belmont Park And PRUSSIAN (Danzig) finished well
to remain undefeated in the Summer S. (Can-G3) at Woodbine.

Good luck to all.