HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 3, 2007
by Dick Powell
There’s an old joke about how rabid racing fans are: “Even if we (track
management) put up barbed wire around the track, they would find a way in.”
Never was this more evident than at Monmouth Park last Saturday for the 24th
renewal of the Breeders’ Cup.
Despite dismal weather conditions — torrential rain and high winds on Friday
and showers for most of Saturday — thousands of horse racing fans showed up to
sit outside in the elements in over-priced seats. Every one of them should
receive an Eclipse Award.
The weather created a situation of a very wet main track and a very soft turf
course. On the main track, horses that ran near the lead did well and horses
that rallied from far back also had a good chance. The main track horses that
were hurt the most by the weather were the ones that raced in the middle of the
pack. This was not the type track that you could stalk the pace and then make
your move.
Horses that were sent to the lead, building up momentum coming out of the
gate, did well; especially going two turns. Horses that dropped back early and
avoided the spray from the front runners, were able to rally.
On the soft turf course, the inside seemed to be the worst footing with the
rain draining down there. But the biggest negative was the problem that big
horses had handling it.
Usually, soft turf is a test of strength and big horses with strong shoulders
are able to overcome the tiring condition the best. However, on Saturday, the
bigger the horse was, the bigger the disadvantage, since the big horses were
sinking to the bottom and not striding out as well as the smaller, athletic
horses.
In the Juvenile Fillies (G1), the scratch of Cry and Catch Me (Street Cry)
affected the pace scenario in favor of her stablemate, INDIAN BLESSING (Indian
Charlie). Garrett Gomez broke her on top and took the lead going into the first
turn. When the remaining speed horses were stuck in traffic, the race was
essentially over.
After six furlongs in 1:10.61, Indian Blessing threw in a :27 second fourth
quarter; just like she did in the Frizette (G1) last out. But instead of tiring,
she kicked in for Gomez and ran her last sixteenth of a mile in an excellent
6.01 seconds. Proud Spell (Proud Citizen) tried to stalk the pace but she had no
help when no one went with Indian Blessing. Backseat Rhythm (El Corredor)
rallied from far back after a bad start to get third.
The Juvenile (G1) was over at the start when Cornelio Velasquez sent WAR PASS
(Cherokee Run) to the front and never looked back. Even after six furlongs in
1:09.65, the winner of the Champagne (G1) was never in trouble and he cruised to
a 4 3/4-length lead over a rallying Pyro (Pulpit).
War Pass was one of only two entrants in the Juvenile to wear mud caulks. He
has so much natural speed that Velasquez can quickly get him to cruising speed
and then get him to relax. He’s undefeated in four starts and will be the
winter-book favorite for the 2008 Kentucky Derby (G1). He earned a fantastic
BRIS Speed rating of 114. One cautionary point about his pedigree — War Pass
has a dosage index of 4.09; higher than 64 of the last 68 Derby winners.
The Filly and Mare Turf (G1) exposed the fallacy of small-sample analysis.
LAHUDOOD (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) won the Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) last out
over rock-hard turf at Belmont. In her prior start on softer turf at Arlington,
she was beaten by nearly 10 lengths.
Thus, Lahudood would not like the soft turf on Saturday and was a filly that
only wanted firm going. What was missing from my specious analysis was that she
finishes her races very strongly and a closer examination of her European form
showed more versatility than I gave her credit for. With a perfect ride from
Alan Garcia, she took the lead with three furlongs to go and held off the late
charge of Honey Ryder (Lasting Approval) by three-quarters of a length. Passage
of Time (GB) (Dansili [GB]) was third and Nashoba’s Key (Silver Hawk) suffered
her first loss in eight starts with a nightmare trip down on the inside.
I thought MIDNIGHT LUTE’s (Real Quiet) win in the Forego (G1) and the Speed
figure he earned was suspect. He and Benny the Bull (Lucky Lionel) both earned
career best Speed figures by a wide margin and with the Sprint (G1) run at six
furlongs, I thought he was vulnerable. When Idiot Proof (Benchmark) took the
lead with a furlong to go, it looked good but here came Gomez and Midnight Lute
making up ground with every stride.
Trainers talk and usually, I don’t listen. But, I should have paid attention
to Bob Baffert’s effusive praise of Midnight Lute. He said that the Forego was
an indication of how well Midnight Lute was doing and that he is finally
fulfilling the promise that Baffert has had for him as one of the best horses he
has ever trained. High praise, indeed, but I chose to ignore it. My only
consolation of Midnight Lute running by Idiot Proof to win by almost five
lengths was the fact that the favorite and third choice exacta paid a generous
$49.80.
Midnight Lute’s final time for the six furlongs of the sprint was 1:09.18 and
he earned a BRIS Speed Rating of 112 — six points less than the Forego but more
than enough here. Second choice Smokey Stover (Put It Back) should have
benefited from the scratch of the blazing-fast Attila’s Storm (Forest Wildcat),
but was shuffled back from post one after breaking a bit slow and was never in
it.
The Mile (G1) was a wide-open race going in and with three furlongs to go it
still was. Cornelio Velasquez had KIP DEVILLE (Kipling) down on the inside
saving ground but in traffic. He would need luck to get clear running but when
early leader Cosmonaut (Lemon Drop Kid) spurted forward in the stretch and
Remarkable News (Ven) (Chayim) tired suddenly, Cornelio’s prayers were answered.
He swung Kip Deville off the rail and went after a game Cosmonaut.
Johnny Murtagh had the 21-10 favorite Excellent Art (GB) (Pivotal) in a drive
on the outside but could only get second after a very wide trip from post 12.
Cosmonaut held on gamely for third and Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great)
finished evenly for fourth after making a gigantic middle move.
It was the second win on the card for Velasquez, who had a great Saratoga
meet, and third win in six Breeders’ Cup starts for trainer Rick Dutrow. IEAH
Stables had to supplement Kip Deville for $300,000 and their risk was rewarded
with a $1.4 million purse check of which $162,000 was their own money.
The bettors had a difficult time separating the contenders in the Distaff
(G1) as expected with seven of the 12 starters going off at single-digit odds.
Lear’s Princess (Lear Fan) was the marginal favorite at 9-2 over GINGER PUNCH
(Awesome Again) after being bet hard early.
As expected, speedy Bear Now (Tiznow) and Hystericalady (Distorted Humor)
went gunning for the lead. They dueled through a first half in :46.64 with
Indian Vale (A.P. Indy) in hot pursuit. Rafael Bejarano had Ginger Punch
stalking the pace down on the inside — probably not the preferred path on
Saturday. When Bear Now packed it in, it was Ginger Punch and Hystericalady
battling on the lead.
Gomez took Octave (Unbridled’s Song) back to dead last early and commenced a
surge down the backstretch while also racing on the inside. She passed horses on
the far turn to loom boldly at the top of the stretch and it looked like she
might have a shot. But Ginger Punch and Hystericalady literally duked it out
with neither giving an inch. Eddie Castro aboard Hystericalady had Bejarano
right where he wanted him — pinned to his inside and he even threw in a bump
inside the eighth pole.
But Bejarano and Ginger Punch would not be denied. It was almost as if the
contact emboldened her and Ginger Punch dug in and surged to a neck win over
Hystericalady. Octave continued her rally but fell two necks short in third.
Lady Joanne (Orientate), who figured to be closer to the pace, ran around the
track in fourth place.
Dylan Thomas (Ire) (Danehill) was the heaviest favorite of the eight
Breeders’ Cup races on Saturday when he was sent off at 9-10 odds in the Turf
(G1). But, not only was the turf much softer than he prefers, but his size
really worked against him as he used up too much energy trying to keep up.
ENGLISH CHANNEL (Smart Strike) certainly prefers firm turf, but his
short-coupled stature made him perfect for Saturday’s turf conditions. My top
pick, Better Talk Now (Talkin Man), had to be manhandled to even go through the
gap from the main track onto the turf course and then into the starting gate. At
the age of eight, it was as if he had figured out that he’s going to get fed
tomorrow anyway so why bother. He was toast as far as I was concerned and I
wished there was some way to cancel the big win wager I made on him at 8-1.
After a half in :53.20, Johnny Velazquez looked like he was in a wrestling
match with English Channel. Unlike many turf performers that drop their head
when they relax, English Channel throws his in the air and looks like he should
be in an Arabian race at Delaware Park. Fri Guy (Theatrical [Ire]) was on the
lead and Julien Leparoux had Shamdinan (Fr) (Dr Fong) pressing the pace first
over. English Channel was third and Dylan Thomas did not look comfortable at any
time.
After a mile in 1:46.01, Velazquez had English Channel in second ready to
pounce. Around the far turn the final time, Velazquez pressed the button and the
response was immediate. English Channel seized command at the top of the stretch
and stormed to a seven-length victory over Shamdinan. Defending champ Red Rocks
(Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) made up some ground to get third and Better Talk Now
rallied to get fourth by a head over Dylan Thomas.
English Channel’s final time for the 1 1/2 miles on the turf was 2:36.96, and
he earned a career best Speed rating of 115. It was a great victory for Pletcher
and Velazquez and their colt now goes to stud with $5.3 million in the kitty.
Shamdinan is only three years old and other than a poor effort in the Irish
Derby (Ire-G1), he shows that he might be ready for the big stage. He won the
Secretariat (G1) at Arlington in his American debut and was a terrific third in
the French Derby (Fr-G1) when he beat Zambezi Sun (Dansili [GB]), who came back
to win a Group 1 in France.
Dylan Thomas was victimized by the conditions and grueling campaign where he
ran in a Group 1 stakes in every month since April. He struggled over the soft
turf and Murtagh had to encourage him to move a lot earlier than he wanted —
tough way to end a brilliant career.
By the time the Classic (G1) came around, it was almost 5:45 and daylight was
about as scarce as money in my wallet. The early betting favored Street Sense
(Street Cry [Ire]) who was 9-5 for most of the betting. Any Given Saturday
(Distorted Humor) was overbet at 7-2 and CURLIN (Smart Strike) and Lawyer Ron
(Langfuhr) were at 9-2. Hard Spun (Danzig) was dismissed at 8-1 despite the
success that some speed horses had earlier on the card going two turns.
In the post parade, Curlin looked like a monster. Despite a career that did
not begin until early February and competing in all three legs of the Triple
Crown, he looked more mature than ever and none the worse for wear. Equal in
stature was Street Sense. Maybe it’s because his trainer and rider get so much
attention or maybe it’s because he wears four bandages, but he doesn’t get his
due for his imposing physique.
Any Given Saturday did not look as impressive as his rivals but he, along
with Awesome Gem (Awesome Again) and Hard Spun, was equipped with mud caulks so
I was still positive before the race. Street Sense drifted up to 5-2 and Lawyer
Ron and Any Given Saturday both went off at 39-10. Curlin, continuing to be the
Rodney Dangerfield of this crop, went off at almost 9-2.
At the start, Mario Pino sent Hard Spun to the lead but did not come over to
the rail. Lawyer Ron and Velazquez, breaking from post one, were not able to
clear him and wound up down on the rail a length behind. Going into the
clubhouse turn, Pino tightened things up a little on Lawyer Ron and Velazquez
was forced to back off.
Diamond Stripes (Notebook) was stalking three wide and Gomez had Any Given
Saturday tucked in behind them. George Washington (Ire) (Danehill) was not
handling the sloppy going and Mick Kinane was asking him to keep up. Coming out
of the clubhouse turn, Hard Spun spurted away and Velazquez came off the rail
with Lawyer Ron, but he was using too much early energy trying to keep up.
After six furlongs in 1:10.67, Pino was cruising along on an easy lead in the
two path aboard Hard Spun while Lawyer Ron was still struggling to keep up. Any
Given Saturday moved into third on the rail, but Gomez was asking him for run
since it looked like Hard Spun was not going to come back to them.
When Street Sense won the Travers (G1) over Grasshopper (Dixie Union), rider
Calvin Borel seemed to really enjoy beating his Cajun rival Robby Albarado.
Maybe he enjoyed it too much and the Classic was the payback.
Going down the backstretch, Albarado kept Curlin right outside Borel aboard
Street Sense with six furlongs to go. He trapped him on the rail and as they
caught up to the leaders, Albarado had clear sailing while Borel had to dodge
horses that he was forced to pass on the inside. The rail was not the worst
place to be on Saturday going two turns and Borel loves to ride it, but Albarado
was taking options away from him.
Around the far turn, Hard Spun opened up three lengths and Lawyer Ron and Any
Given Saturday had had enough. Both of the Pletcher trainees were passed on the
inside by Curlin and Street Sense, and it looked like we might have an epic
three-horse battle to the wire, but Street Sense came up empty straightening
away for home and Curlin went right on by Hard Spun with more than a furlong to
go.
Curlin showed his customary stretch energy and drew off to a 4 1/2-length
victory over a very game Hard Spun. His final time for the 1 1/4 miles was a
terrific 2:00.59, and he earned a sensational Speed rating of 121. Awesome Gem,
a 28-1 longshot, rallied from far back to get third by a length over Street
Sense. He never threatened the top two but made it into the exotics at a juicy
price. The exacta came back $70.80, and the trifecta paid $1,290.60.
George Washington pulled up in distress inside the eighth pole and you knew
immediately by the body language of those assisting him, it was bleak. In an
eerie scene that I will never forget, George Washington was euthanized at the
sixteenth pole while the trophy presentation for the Classic was taking place
nearby. Considering how traumatic the situation was, Monmouth Park officials
could not have done a better job handling it.
Curlin will be voted Horse of the Year and deservedly so. He had one of the
most unusual seasons of all time getting a late start to his career on February
3, being sold privately and changing trainers, and going to the Triple Crown
with only three starts. A third in the Derby, a game win in the Preakness (G1)
and then a narrow loss in the Belmont S. (G1) thrust Curlin into the
conversation regarding divisional honors. When he beat Lawyer Ron in the Jockey
Club Gold Cup (G1), in his first start against older horses, he was then one win
away from Horse of the Year honors. It was a great field and he dominated like a
Horse of the Year should. Other than his third in the Haskell (G1), he always
runs his eyeballs out through the lane and on Saturday he showed new-found
versatility and athleticism.
Many of the Classic participants are off to stud and there is much anguish
about it. All you have to do is look at Discreet Cat (Forestry) to understand
the risk/reward aspect of the decision-making process of whether to race or go
to stud.
At the end of last year, Discreet Cat was undefeated in six starts. He won
the Cigar Mile (G1) in near world-record time and with his pedigree and running
ability could have easily been retired to stud and stand for $100,000. His
stablemate, BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy), did go to stud and stood for $100,000, and
Discreet Cat, with a more precocious pedigree and race record, was at least as
valuable.
Godolphin Stable decided to race Discreet Cat this year and the results have
been disastrous. He ran last in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1), was off for most
of the year before running a distant third in the Vosburgh (G1), and then was
well-beaten in the inaugural running of the Dirt Mile. Discreet Cat now goes to
stud next year for $30,000. If he gets the expected 100 mares that he should, he
would have collected $10 million in revenue this year. Instead, he earned very
little on the track, damaged his reputation and now goes to stud at probably 30
percent of what he could have been retired at last year.
When you consider that the first four years of a stallion’s career take place
before their offspring ever run, it could be estimated that racing Discreet Cat
this year cost Godolphin $31 million — the $10 million he missed this year by
running and the $7 million the next three years when he will stand for the
lesser stud fee. Once his foals start racing, the stud fee can be adjusted and I
am not even taking account any revenue from stud duty in the Southern
Hemisphere. But it shows why retiring a horse after his three-year-old season
often times makes too much economic sense.
I am going to have to re-think my complaining about trainers not running
their horses enough. If the end result of this trend is to have the quantity and
quality of horses available like we saw in this year’s Classic, maybe it’s all
worthwhile.