OAK TREE NOTEBOOK
NOVEMBER 1, 2007
by John Mucciolo
A pair of graded stakes races headlined the week at Oak Tree:
Carleton F. Burke H. (G3): R. D. Hubbard’s SPRING HOUSE (Chester House) lived
up to his favored billing
with a convincing 2 1/4-length score under Garrett Gomez. The hard-trying
five-year-old was always well-positioned prior to putting in his dominating
stretch run, clocking 1 1/2 miles over the firm turf in 2:24 for Julio Canani.
Morvich H. (G3): GET FUNKY (Straight Man) gamely got up by a neck as the 2-1 choice to win
this for conditioner John Sadler. The four-year-old colt was always prominent
and wore down a stubborn leader late, getting 6 1/2 furlongs down the Hillside
Turf Course in a sharp 1:13 1/5 beneath Martin Garcia.
Track Stats:
From a total of 43 races held over the Arcadia racetrack during the week,
favorites won at a 35 percent clip and the top two betting choices combined for
58 percent of the wins. From 29 frays contested on the Cushion Track, 10 horses won in wire-to-wire fashion (34 percent), while none of the 11 grassy tussles
went all the way on the lead.
On Wednesday, not a single runner won from posts 1-3, while six horses
breaking on the inner part of the surface won on the following day. Thursday
witnessed four winners leading at every call. It’s really hard for me to pick up
on a definitive track bias, but when one does occur, it tends to favor a certain
part of the oval, whether on the rail or down the middle, and not necessarily
early or late runners.
The turf course at Santa Anita has seen only 11 percent of horses winning
from the start thus far, but that has more to do with the dynamics of the race
and less to do with bias. All in all, the inaugural meet with Cushion Track at
Santa Anita has appeared to be quite successful with one week to go.
Meet Totals:
| RACES: 229 | ||
| DIRT: 159 | ||
| TURF: 70 | ||
| FAVORITES: 62 | (27 percent) | |
| 2ND CHOICES: 72 | (31 percent) | |
| TURF WIRE: 8 | (11 percent) | |
| DIRT WIRE: 34 | (21 percent) |
Post Positions (wins):
| RAIL: 25 | (11 percent) | |
| 1-3: 74 | (32 percent) | |
| 4-6: 85 | (37 percent) | |
| 7-out: 71 | (31 percent) |
HORSES TO WATCH:
Wednesday (10/24)
5TH – AQUA (Giant’s Causeway) broke her maiden in stylish fashion with a
strong late burst for trainer Kathy Walsh. The juvenile miss was well back early but
displayed a potent late run under Victor Espinoza to take the first-place prize.
She looks to be of stakes-quality with minor improvement.
Friday (10/26)
4TH – SOUTHWEST (Cozzene) disappointed as the choice in this spot but seems
poised for better things to come for Gary Mandella. The freshman colt had little
pace at which to run, but still earned a solid 96 BRIS Late Pace figure. A
stronger tempo and, possibly, some added ground could catapult this one to a
new level.
7TH – STEFANI (Wavering Monarch) couldn’t have looked better in her debut,
pouncing when turning for home and cruising to a commanding score for Paddy
Gallagher. It took the four-year-old quite a while to make her initial start,
but patience paid off in this case. She could be any kind.
Saturday (10/27)
2ND – DESIGNER BREED (Victory Gallop) closed from last and fell just one-length short in here for conditioner Steve Specht. The gelded four-year-old
looked less than inspiring in his last effort, but he may have turned the
corner.
3RD – STANFORD GOLD (Malabar Gold) put in a solid first start for trainer
Juan Garcia, and the two-year-old should be live in his subsequent try. The
freshman gelding closed well to be a clear second and could offer some value
next time due to his connections.
Sunday (10/28)
7TH – MORNING FROST (Monsieur Cat) has now put in a trio of strong efforts
and has been a bit unlucky not to have her maiden broken by now. The Bob Hess
Jr. charge has tactical speed and a good late kick, so she’ll win soon. The miss could
probably deal with some added ground.
A Look Ahead
California Cup XVIII takes center stage on Saturday, with 10 events held for
those who were bred in the Golden State. The $250,000 Classic, which will bring forth the mighty LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew), leads the way. A guaranteed
$1 million Pick 6 will be offered, as well.
On closing Sunday, the $150,000 Las Palmas H. (G2), for turf distaffers going
one mile, is the feature.