HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 29, 2008
by Dick Powell
I don’t really like WAR PASS’ (Cherokee Run) chances in the Kentucky Derby
(G1), but his seasonal debut was about as good as it gets, as long as you put it
into the proper context. Returning to the races off a 120-day layoff, last
year’s juvenile champion showed up in a high-class allowance race going a mile
at Gulfstream Park last Sunday for Nick Zito.
Even with its $60,000 purse, the race was essentially a walkover for War
Pass, and the bettors bet him down to 1-20 favoritism. But unlike Bellamy Road,
who ran a hole in the wind in his seasonal debut going a mile, Zito was
determined to use the soft spot to do some experimenting.
Unlike in his prior four races where War Pass gunned to the front and ran
blistering first quarters, he cruised to the front in the long run down
Gulfstream’s backstretch in a pokey :23.94. Visually, Cornelio Velasquez had a
tight hold of him, but War Pass was offering no resistance and settled nicely.
With his running start, he threw in a second quarter of :22.78 but was not
headstrong at all.
He still runs with his head held rather high with his neck stretching out,
but War Pass gets his hind end underneath him beautifully and has an immense
stride. He galloped around the turn and pulled away in the stretch to win by 7
1/2 lengths in a final time of 1:36.38. His BRIS Speed rating of 100 was well
off his 114 earned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but in the context of
what Zito was trying to accomplish, it was exactly what he wanted.
Considering his worktab did not begin until January 10 this year, it was a
very impressive performance. Winning in fast time was not going to get him ready
for the big races this year, so a good mile prep where he finished up strong
should have him ready for a return to stakes company. The only question he needs
to answer, besides going 10 furlongs which he won’t get asked until the first
Saturday in May, is whether he can run in behind horses. But when you are fast
as War Pass is, it’s not something he’ll have to deal with very often.
One race earlier, Zito sent out a pair of Derby contenders for the Fountain
of Youth S. (G2). Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop) was sent off at 10-1 odds despite
winning the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) in his last start. Despite his lack of
stakes credentials, COOL COAL MAN (Mineshaft), who won an allowance race over
the track at 1 1/8 miles, was sent off as the fourth choice at 7-1.
With a short run into the first turn, many 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream are
won at the start and the Fountain of Youth was no exception. Kent Desormeaux,
riding Cool Coal Man for the first time, broke him beautifully from post 1 and
then used him a bit to maintain his position inside Golden Spikes (Seeking the
Gold). As the field straightened out for the run down the backstretch,
Desormeaux had prime position on the rail behind three leaders — Golden Spikes,
Make the Point (Menifee) and Elysium Fields (El Prado [Ire]).
Unlike other races when Cool Coal Man was rank and hard to restrain,
Desormeaux had him behaving like a perfect gentleman. His head was steady and he
was keeping up with little effort going into the far turn. Nearing the top of
the stretch, it looked like Cool Coal Man might be dropping back, but Desormeaux
was gearing him up for an inside-outside move. He dropped back a bit and then
suddenly swung to the outside to go up after the leaders four wide.
You can watch races every day at every level at Gulfstream and rarely see the
move that Desormeaux performed on Cool Coal Man. One second he’s down on the
inside; the next he’s swooping the three leaders without losing momentum despite
losing ground. Rather than wait for a hole to open, he circled the leaders at a
point when you often see horses spin their wheels on Gulfstream’s main track.
Poor Eibar Coa didn’t know what hit him aboard Elysium Fields, but once Cool
Coal Man opened a clear lead and drifted over to the rail, he re-rallied. It
looked like Cool Coal Man was home-free, but Elysium Fields began to eat into
his lead until his courageous late rally fell a half-length short. Considering
that he was three wide every step of the way from post 9, it was a huge effort
for Elysium Fields who was moving up to stakes company off a maiden win here
last out.
Cool Coal Man has a few things going for him that could make him a major
contender the rest of the year. He’s four-for-five going two turns, he’s trained
by a Hall of Fame trainer that knows how to get young horses ready for big
races, and his sire, Mineshaft, was a late-maturing colt. Now that Cool Coal Man
has learned to relax and save energy, he could be a force to contend with —
especially if he has Desormeaux on board.
Helen Pitts has lost some good horses the past few years, but she still has
EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck), who continues to thrive at the age of six. He’s a
distance turf horse, but even with his tactical speed, he has managed to find
trouble in many races.
After finishing last season in the Dixie S. (G2) when he lost his rider
avoiding a fallen foe, he returned to the races this year at Gulfstream with a
smart allowance/optional claiming win going a mile. Pitts then tried to expand
his horizons when she ran him in the Donn H. (G1) last out, but he had a wide
trip from post 8 and was beaten about five lengths.
Back to the turf and back to his favorite distance, Einstein was 6-1 on the
morning line for the Gulfstream Park Turf S. (G1), a three-turn turf marathon.
With the temporary rail down, his inside post position and tactical speed
figured to be major assets and at post time he was bet down to 3-1.
At the start, Thorn Song (Unbridled’s Song) went to the front and Jose
Lezcano put Einstein in behind him on the rail. Even with a first quarter in
:23.80 and a half in :47.44, Lezcano was worried that the pace might get backed
down in front of him so he deftly steered Einstein to the outside of Thorn Song.
With a perfect first-over position, Lezcano was now willing to bide his time and
when they went down the backstretch for the second time, he looked like he had
Thorn Song measured and was just waiting for someone to try to rally on his
outside.
Einstein edged to the front nearing the top of the stretch the final time,
and like always, he kicked in strong. The only closer that was making up any
ground was Dancing Forever (Rahy), whose late rally fell a half-length short
after waiting for room at the top of the stretch.
Despite carrying 123 pounds, Einstein earned a career-best Speed rating of
111. With three races already this year, Pitts is in a quandary since the
logical choice would be to rest him up and keep him fresh for the rest of the
year. The past two seasons, Einstein has done his best racing in the first
quarter of the year, and Saturday was no exception.