PREAKNESS REPORT
MAY 8, 2008
by James Scully
BIG BROWN (Boundary) lived up to the hype — and then some — but his
spectacular Kentucky Derby (G1) victory was overshadowed by the unfortunate
breakdown of Eight Belles. That’s not going to be the focus of this column, but I
will offer a couple of thoughts on the matter before concentrating on the Derby
winner.
Larry Jones, trainer of Eight Belles and one of the classiest individuals in
Thoroughbred racing, assured us that the track was safe at Churchill Downs on
Derby Day, and I take him at his word. Dr. Larry Bramlage, the on-call
veterinarian for the American Association of Equine Practitioners, was one of
the first to reach the filly after she broke down a quarter-mile past the finish
line, and he didn’t believe that Eight Belles’ injuries would’ve been prevented
on a artificial surface.
“I don’t think the forces on her legs pulling up would be any different on
dirt or artificial surface,” Bramlage said.
I understand the outcry for changes in the aftermath of such a tragedy, and
the synthetic debate is the most divisive topic in our sport today. If the
synthetic surfaces played like the dirt tracks they’re replacing, I think it
would be an open-and-shut case. But that’s clearly not the reality. The best
dirt horses too often are not the best horses on synthetic tracks, and vice
versa. We’re replacing dirt tracks with different-playing surfaces in California
and elsewhere, and horses based over these synthetic tracks ran poorly when
switching to dirt in the Breeders’ Cup and Kentucky Derby.
Big Brown’s victory continues to amaze me. Rating four-to-five lengths off
the pace for the first time in his brief career, he lost ground the entire way
before opening up on his rivals at the top of the stretch with a scintillating
turn of foot. The Richard Dutrow-trained colt became only the seventh unbeaten
Kentucky Derby winner in 134 years, and he’s poised to make a serious run at the
Triple Crown. If that happens, Big Brown will join Seattle Slew as the only
undefeated Triple Crown winner.
At the same point in their careers, I think the comparison to Seattle Slew is
a good one. By 1977 standards, Slew was lightly raced entering the Derby, making
only three starts at two before being given the winter off by conditioner Billy
Turner, and the well-built colt didn’t make his three-year-old debut until
March, winning a seven-furlong allowance at Hialeah. His next two preps were
essentially front-running walkovers, and Slew entered the Derby virtually
untested, having run away from his competition in the opening quarter-mile of
all his starts. A lot of people questioned whether the speedy colt would be able
to handle 1 1/4 miles, and others wondered how he would handle being hooked
early by the other front runners in the field. Slew answered all the questions
in resounding fashion.
He broke a step slow, got slammed by a rival next to him, and found himself
last in the 15-horse Derby field a couple of jumps out of the starting gate.
Slew quickly recovered and accelerated toward the front like he was shot out of
a cannon, dueling on a fast pace for the opening three-quarters of a mile before
drawing off. He cruised under the wire 1 3/4 lengths the best.
Similar to Big Brown, Slew did something for the first time in the Derby,
overcoming a less-than-perfect trip in which he didn’t have everything his own
way on the front end. And like this year’s also-rans, Slew’s competition could
be viewed as weak. Runner-up Run Dusty Run was a nice horse entering the Triple
Crown series, but he never won another graded stakes afterward. Sanhedrin and
Get the Axe, the respective third- and fourth-place finishers behind Slew, never
won a stakes race in their entire career. Fifth-placer Steve’s Friend never
accomplished anything after the Derby either. The final time was also criticized. Slew
ran 1 1/4 miles in 2:02 1/5 — slower than Foolish Pleasure (2:02) and Bold
Forbes (2:01 3/5) in the years preceding him and Affirmed (2:01 1/5) in 1978.
Big Brown has been knocked for who he beat and how fast he finished. He took
25.26 seconds to run his final quarter-mile, stopping the teletimer in 2:01.82,
but don’t be swayed by the raw data. It doesn’t matter who the competition was
or how fast he ran. The bay colt performed brilliantly, dominating like a
Seattle Slew, and he has unlimited potential at this point in his career. With
only four starts to his credit, Big Brown owns room for improvement.
He’ll first need to conquer next Saturday’s Preakness (G1) at Pimlico, and
the two-week turnaround is a concern for the lightly raced colt. Big Brown could
get stuck in an inside post, break a step slow or face other unforeseen
circumstances, and all the other jockeys will be riding to beat him. The Triple
Crown is an extreme challenge, and it’s going to take a special horse to snap
the 30-year run of futility. That’s why I’m so excited about Big Brown — he
looks as special as they come.
A much different cast of challengers is being assembled to face him at Old
Hilltop. So far, RECAPTURETHEGLORY (Cherokee Run) is the only Derby runner who
will have a return engagement against Big Brown in the Preakness. Of the possible new Preakness shooters,
HARLEM ROCKER (Macho Uno) is the most intriguing.
Unbeaten in three starts, the Todd Pletcher pupil captured his career debut
at Gulfstream Park on February 14 and recorded a sharp score in an eight-furlong
allowance on March 30. Making his stakes debut in the one-mile Withers S. (G3)
at Aqueduct on April 26, the gray colt crushed the highly regarded J Be K
(Silver Deputy) by a widening 2 1/2 lengths. This is a similar pattern to
champion Bernardini, who recorded a 3 3/4-length win when making his stakes bow
in the 2006 Withers. Bernardini stretched out to two turns for the first time in
the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and posted a 5 1/4-length decision after Barbaro broke
down during the early stages of the race.
Harlem Rocker doesn’t own the regal pedigree of a Bernardini, but he’s got
the breeding to handle the 1 3/16-mile trip and deserves the opportunity to run
in the Preakness. His value would skyrocket with an upset over Big Brown.
We’ll take a more in-depth look at the entire field next week.