Stephen Foster

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

All eyes will be on Churchill Downs Saturday as they present a blockbuster
program that includes six graded stakes, the highlight of which is the
$1 million Stephen Foster H. (G1) for older horses at 1 1/8 miles. The Foster
marks the American seasonal debut of reigning Horse of the Year CURLIN (Smart
Strike), who began the year with two victories in Dubai, including the Dubai
World Cup (UAE-G1) by a 7 3/4-length margin. Curlin will be asked to tote 128
pounds, conceding 10-15 pounds to the nine rivals who will line up against him,
and, trainer Steve Asmussen’s public fuming notwithstanding, Curlin should prove
comfortably best against a field that is not his equal.

From an actual weight perspective, the impost should prove little hindrance
to Curlin, who carried 132 pounds to victory in a Dubai handicap and completed
about 10 furlongs in 2:00 3/5, a solid raw time anywhere. Granted, he was facing
allowance quality runners, but could have carried more and still not broken much
of a sweat. The Foster field will be more challenging, and the weight concession
will be more strongly felt, but it isn’t unfair considering few of the others
enter in peak form. The lone exception, EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck), is
stronger on grass and would probably need an off-track to reproduce his best on
dirt.

As last week’s Belmont S. (G1) showed, no horse is invincible, and Curlin
could conceivably be beat. On the other hand, there are no hoof issues or missed
training time to be concerned about, and the possibility of a wet surface should
play right into his hands given how impressive his Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
triumph was in similar conditions.

BRASS HAT (Prized) tends to do some of his best running over this track, and
is our pick to complete the exacta. Though he peaked more than two years ago when he
won the Donn H. (G1) and placed in the Dubai World Cup prior to being
disqualified, Brass Hat has run decently on occasion since his return from a
tendon injury, including a solid runner-up finish last fall in the Clark H.
(G2). Brass Hat was in tough positions in his last two when trying to rally
behind a slow pace in a pair of grass stakes, and the situation should be more
ideal here.

BARCOLA (Old Trieste) is a speedster with a perfect two-for-two record on wet
tracks. Two things prevent him from being more highly rated here: his seeming
preference for shorter races against high quality competition, and the
possibility that another front-runner, multiple Grade 3 winner JONESBORO
(Sefapiano), will force him to use up valuable energy early on.

Einstein, a multiple Grade 1 winner on grass, was flattered last week when
two rivals he’s beaten this year, Dancing Forever (Rahy) and Out of Control
(Brz) (Vettori), took the top two positions in the Manhattan H. (G1). Einstein
himself was scheduled to run in that race, but his owners’ licensing issues
prevented him from starting, so the Foster serves as a back-up. As stated
earlier, his wet track record of 3-2-0-0 suggests he will need those type of
conditions to reproduce his best form, and very rare is it for a horse to excel
at such a high level on both surfaces.

GRASSHOPPER (Dixie Union) looked like an up-and-comer in the older male
division over the winter, but has regressed a bit in his last two, though not
without some excuses. He raced wide in both the Westchester H. (G3) and Pimlico
Special H. (G1), and also might not have cared for the muddy conditions in the
latter. His 3-2-0-1 Churchill mark is encouraging, however, and it would be no
surprise if he rebounded with a better performance here.

DELIGHTFUL KISS (Kissin Kris), trained by former jockey Pete Anderson, who 50 years and one
week ago was aboard *Cavan for his Belmont S. upset over Tim Tam, is a
progressive sort who captured the Ohio Derby (G2) and Iowa Derby, and most
recently returned from a long layoff to finish second in the Blazing Sword S. at
Calder. If not of this class, Delightful Kiss at least has a license to improve
in his second start of the season.

The rest of the Foster field look a little out of their league. Grade
1-placed SAM P. (Cat Thief) has yet to win a stakes, most recently earning a
hard-fought victory in a second-level allowance. Minor stakes winner HIGH
BLUES (High Yield) and multiple stakes-placed RED ROCK CREEK (Numerous) both lack the experience
against this kind and the BRIS Speed ratings to be considered legitimate
contenders for the win.