TURF DIARY
by Kellie Reilly
Like any episode of serious historic importance, Horse of the Year CURLIN’s
(Smart Strike) unsuccessful turf debut in the July 12 Man o’ War S. (G1) has
lent itself to various interpretations. One can take the bare result literally,
at face value, as a conclusive argument against future turf sorties, especially
an ambitious bid for the October 5 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1).
Alternatively, one can take into account mitigating factors and extenuating
circumstances that put his runner-up effort behind English invader RED ROCKS
(Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) in a more encouraging light. We’ll label these two schools
of Curlin historiography the “narrow interpretation” and the “expansive
interpretation.”
The narrow interpretation focuses upon the fact that Curlin was under a drive
approaching the far turn, made hard work of even getting into contention, and
was simply outkicked by Red Rocks through the final furlong at Belmont Park. In
other words, we did not see the real Curlin that we know and love from the dirt.
Presumably, if Curlin were as good on the grass as he is on the dirt, he should
have cruised up on his own authority and galloped his rivals into submission.
Compounding his defeat, in this view, is the contention that Red Rocks is a
notch or two below the best in Europe. As a result, based upon the twin premises
that Curlin is iffy on the turf, and Red Rocks is no world-beater, the
inescapable conclusion follows that Curlin should forget about facing a much
tougher cavalry squadron in the Arc.
The expansive interpretation cannot quibble with the facts of the case. By
looking at those facts from a wider angle, however, it questions whether they
actually prove anything at all about Curlin’s true level of ability on the turf.
First and foremost, Curlin hit the gate at the start and lost several lengths
straightaway, conceding absolutely vital early position to Red Rocks. Indeed,
given the way the race unfolded, with the trailblazing pair of SUDAN (Ire) (Peintre
Celebre) and MISSION APPROVED (With Approval) running off like scalded
cats through testing fractions, Red Rocks was settled in exactly the right spot
in third — about 10 lengths behind the suicide pact, but a crucial three or
four lengths ahead of Curlin in fourth. The early tactical advantage surely lay
with Red Rocks, who would be first on the premises when the speed merchants
inevitably folded, and the first to capitalize on their destruction.
The second tipping point came during the fifth quarter-mile, essentially the
far turn and upper stretch. While Red Rocks was gaining on the pacesetters,
Curlin was reeling off his fifth quarter in approximately :23 1/5, just to
narrow his pre-existing gap with Red Rocks to one length. Moreover, Curlin was
wide on the turn, losing ground throughout this strong rally. By midstretch,
Curlin was third, very much in the thick of things, and seemingly leveling off
for a battle with Red Rocks, but it never came. Red Rocks produced a terrific
late spurt, going the 11th and final furlong in about :11 3/5, to pull one
additional length clear of Curlin, and cross the wire a total of two lengths in
front.
Had Red Rocks and Curlin been racing as a team early, and Red Rocks just left
him in his wake, that would be one thing. But because of his tardy break, and
the bizarre pace scenario, far removed from the normal variety of turf
experience, Curlin had to accelerate sharply just to get into position. What if
Curlin had been able to deploy that blitz while on more equitable terms entering
the stretch? Because the afterburners had to be cranked up early to erase the
deficit, though, Curlin could not sustain that frenetic burst through the final
furlong, and Red Rocks came out looking the stronger of the pair. If their early
positions had been reversed, and Curlin had been in the catbird seat, the result
could well have been different. Even so, Curlin actually earned a higher BRIS
Late Pace figure than Red Rocks did (97 versus 95).
The third key to the expansive interpretation is that Red Rocks is no slouch.
To be sure, he has been found wanting in the major prizes in Europe, while still
placing in such exalted affairs as the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1) and St Leger
(Eng-G1). On the other hand, it’s every bit as true that he tends to perform
much better in American conditions, as his stirring victory in the 2006
Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) attests. Nor can this success be ascribed to mere class
relief on this side of the pond. Red Rocks would not have troubled the likes of
Hurricane Run (Ire) or Scorpion (Ire) in Europe, but he crushed them both in
that Breeders’ Cup, where he benefited from another very fast pace set-up.
Whether it’s our flatter, (generally) firmer courses, or the legality of Lasix,
Red Rocks enjoys himself here, and he accordingly performs at a higher level. To
sum up, he doesn’t merely run up to his European form in America — he typically
exceeds it. So the plan to keep him here, turn him over to Mark Hennig, and
point for the August 16 Sword Dancer Invitational (G1) at Saratoga makes sense.
Let’s just hope that he settles in well with Hennig and doesn’t suffer the
dreaded Euro-bounce.
The fourth item to note about Curlin’s effort is that he finished a
half-length ahead of the grand old BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man), hero of the
2004 Turf, who was rolling late after strolling in last early. If Red Rocks had
stayed home in England, the story of the Man o’ War would have been “Curlin
beats Breeders’ Cup Turf winner.” The fifth, and final, point is that Curlin has
a penchant for improving the second time he does something — being outdueled in
the Belmont S. (G1) in his first tour of Big Sandy, but later prevailing in the
Jockey Club Gold Cup S. (G1); disappointing in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth, but
eventually romping in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at that venue. Trainer
Steve Asmussen explained that pattern was the reason for going to Dubai early,
so that he could have a prep race in advance of the March 29 World Cup (UAE-G1),
and that plan worked to perfection.
So which interpretation is more persuasive? The narrow view is right in one
respect, that Curlin’s showing in the Man o’ War did not measure up to the level
of performance required in the Arc. It fails, however, to take into account the
peculiarities of the Man o’ War, and Curlin’s capacity for improvement. Taking
the expansive view, is there any credible reason to suggest that he won’t take a
step forward next time on the grass, possibly even a giant leap? At the very
least, he’ll probably break in good order and secure a better early position,
thereby offering a more realistic appraisal of his turf prowess. I’m hoping that
he will get another chance to answer the burning question himself, for the Man
o’ War was inconclusive — not brilliant, but a respectable debut on the surface
nonetheless.
Star performers: By definition, Red Rocks merits the star tag for
beating Curlin, but we must hand out a second gold star to reigning Breeders’
Cup Mile (G1) hero KIP DEVILLE (Kipling), who keeps going from strength to
strength. The Richard Dutrow charge used the July 13 Poker H. (G3) as a
glorified workout, to “give him something to do,” as the trainer put it, between
his successful title defense in the April 11 Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) and his next
engagement in the September 7 Woodbine Mile (Can-G1). Kip Deville definitely
needed something to do, for he could not have finished much faster, or powered
home any more impressively. Outclassing his four opponents at Belmont Park, the
gray exploded through his final quarter in :22 3/5 while stretching 2 3/4
lengths clear.
Even more significant, the Poker showcased a mentally mature, consummately
professional Kip Deville, illustrating just how far he’s come from his old
headstrong days. Razor-sharp from the gate, the Oklahoma-bred strolled through a
tepid opening quarter of :24 1/5. When a rival slipped through along the rail to
take charge, the older, wiser, mellower Kip did not get all keyed up, as his
younger incarnation would have done. Instead, Kip was content to travel well
under a snug hold, all the while looking like a tightly wound spring about to
uncoil. The stretch run of the Poker was a thing of beauty, and it reiterated
Kip’s status as the premier miler in North America.
On the upswing: The BC Mile division has been bolstered by the
upwardly mobile MONZANTE (Maria’s Mon), who stormed home from a seemingly
unpromising position to win the 1 1/8-mile Eddie Read H. (G1) on July 20 in
stunning fashion. Last in the six-horse field from flagfall to midstretch,
reserved off only moderate fractions, the Mike Mitchell-trained gray smoked his
final furlong in :10 4/5 to nail WHATSTHESCRIPT (Ire) (Royal Applause [GB]) in
the shadow of the Del Mar wire. To borrow a Trevor Denman phrase, it was as if
Monzante had “sprouted wings.” Furthermore, he took the overland route into the
stretch, and according to the Trakus data, covered more territory than anyone
else in the race — most notably, 41 feet more than Whatsthescript.
This was a superb performance from Monzante, for the highly regarded
Whatsthescript ran just about the same race that he did when capturing the June
28 American H. (G2) at Hollywood. In the American, “Script” was full of run when
caught in traffic turning for home, knifed between rivals to launch his
challenge and lengthened stride beautifully en route to a very sharp score over
STORM MILITARY (Arg) (Bernstein). In the Eddie Read, Script was likewise
brimming with energy on the far turn, got the split (a bit earlier this time)
and seized command. Although he didn’t look to be extending as well on the Del
Mar grass, while clinging to his left lead, he still rattled off his ninth
furlong in :11 2/5, and again finished ahead of Storm Military. With the top two
from the American running second and third in the Eddie Read, Monzante’s form
looks rock solid.
Like DAYTONA (Ire) (Indian Ridge), who is getting a midsummer break after his
uncharacteristic sixth in the American, Monzante is a cast-off from a top-notch
operation. Daytona was culled from Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley banner, while
Monzante was cut from Prince Khalid Abdulla’s Juddmonte Farms roster after
failing to make the grade in England last year. Curiously, however, Monzante
must have shown his original connections some talent, for he was an early
nominee to our Triple Crown in 2007. That, in conjunction with the type of
company he was keeping in England, separates him from the garden variety
Mitchell rehab project.
Prepping for Arlington: The Eddie Read has not produced any contenders
for the August 9 Arlington Million (G1), but a pair of explicit preps for the
Chicago showpiece were staged recently. The more significant was the July 4
Firecracker H. (G2) at Churchill Downs, where EINSTEIN (Brz) (Spend a Buck) got
the perfect tune-up, albeit in defeat. The Helen Pitts trainee was always going
to find it tricky to catch a loose-on-the-lead THORN SONG (Unbridled’s Song) on
yielding turf at a flat mile. Add in Einstein’s 124-pound impost (six pounds
more than Thorn Song), and traffic problems at a terribly inconvenient moment at
the top of the stretch, and his task got exponentially more difficult. Indeed,
once Einstein was shuffled back to fourth in midstretch, things looked dire.
Despite the deck being stacked against him, he regrouped and finished strongly
to grab second, beaten a grand total of one length. This loss should not be held
against him.
In the July 12 Arlington H. (G3), STREAM CAT (Black Minnaloushe) rudely
dethroned two-time defending champion COSMONAUT (Lemon Drop Kid), who had things
his own way on the front end but was simply blown away by 3 3/4 lengths late.
Stream Cat had flashed talent at times for Patrick Biancone, and he put it all
together in this smashing debut for Rusty Arnold, which was also his first start
since October. Although the Arlington was contested at the same course and
distance as the upcoming Million, it’s not certain to hold that many clues for
the marquee event. The turf was downright soft, and Cosmonaut may have been
tired from an unexpected hitch in his travel plans, enduring a 16-hour-long van
ride when his flight did not go. In any event, it was unlike him to give way
without a fight. As far as Stream Cat is concerned, he ran such a monstrously
good race in his reappearance that it’s at least debatable whether he could
regress when he comes back in four weeks.
Sophomores on the march: Also at Arlington on July 12, the confirmed
front runner TIZDEJAVU (Tiznow) continued his relentless progress with a 2
1/4-length score in the American Derby (G2), which was a pretty weak event
except for the winner. A perfect three-for-three on the grass, the Greg Fox
pupil had captured the May 2 Crown Royal American Turf S. (G3) and romped in the
June 14 Jefferson Cup S. (G2), both at Churchill. So far he’s had the luxury of
clear leads through steady, or even pedestrian, fractions. Until he is tested up
front, or shows an ability to rate, we won’t be able to gauge his real merit.
One way or another, that test should come in the Secretariat S. (G1) on Million
Day.
A much deeper Secretariat prep was the July 19 Virginia Derby (G2). GIO PONTI
(Tale of the Cat) had already shown push-button acceleration as a juvenile, and
again in his blistering three-year-old bow in the June 6 Hill Prince S. (G3),
but we had not gotten the measure of his heart — until now. In an old-fashioned
dogfight with COURT VISION (Gulch) throughout the final furlong, Gio Ponti dug
down deep to win by the tip of his nostril. Both colts performed honorably in a
real tussle that involved brushing on the far turn and again in the waning
yards. The pair surged 2 1/4 lengths clear of SAILOR’S CAP (Distant View), who
was dispatched as the 6-5 choice after destroying the field, including Court
Vision, in the June 21 Colonial Turf Cup S. (G3) on soft ground.
Court Vision was arguably a trifle unlucky in the Virginia Derby, in that Gio
Ponti got first run while hemming him in, but counterbalancing that, Gio Ponti
had raced wide throughout and covered more ground than his adversary. The
royally bred Court Vision, a one-time Kentucky Derby (G1) contender who trudged
home 13th in the Run for the Roses, is the latest in a series of colts who have
transformed classic disappointment into a promising career on the turf.
Upset artist: PRESIOUS PASSION (Royal Anthem) is rapidly earning the
title of professional upsetter. First it was the 2006 Jersey Derby at 10-1. In
2007, he captured the Cliff Hanger S. (G3) at that same price, and three starts
later, shocked the W.L. McKnight H. (G2) at 67-1. This past April, the Mary
Hartmann charge wired the Pan American H. (G3) as a 20-1 shot. Once again
overlooked at nearly 14-1 in the July 5 United Nations S. (G1), Presious Passion
was allowed to dictate a slow pace, and he took full advantage to hold off the
closing STRIKE A DEAL (Smart Strike) by a neck. I’m as guilty as anyone of
underestimating Presious Passion, who had not even garnered a mention in my
first two Turf Diaries, but it’s at last clear that he warrants respect in these
marathons. Having admitted that much, I still can’t envision his coping with the
big guns, who were noticeably absent from the United Nations.
Of course, there was one who was supposed to be a big gun in the UN, but
even-money favorite CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) (Danehill) never fired a shot and
checked in sixth. The pace scenario is not a viable excuse, for other closers at
least managed to improve their position. It would have been too boring to give
him the dubious “Missing the mark” designation for the third straight edition,
so we’ll just express our disapproval by saying that it’s back to the drawing
board for him.
I wonder if Bobby Frankel, with the benefit of hindsight, regrets that he
didn’t run Sudan in the UN. Sudan was a commendable fourth in the Man o’ War
after that pace imbroglio, and the UN would have unfolded much better for him.
On the horizon: The next issue will preview the likely fields for the
Arlington Million and Secretariat.