Del Mar Oaks J

AMERICAN
GRADED STAKES PREVIEWS

Even without the presence of American Oaks Invitational (G1) winner Pure Clan
(Pure Prize), Saturday’s $350,000 Del Mar Oaks (G1) has attracted a talent-laden
field of 10 three-year-old fillies. Logic dictates to us that SATAN’S CIRCUS
(Gone West), who finished less than a length in second behind Pure Clan in the
American Oaks, is the one to beat in her second U.S. start.

A listed stakes winner in her penultimate start in France, Satan’s Circus
later finished fifth in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) (Fr-G1), seven lengths
behind Zarkava (Zamindar), now considered one of the favorites for the Prix de
l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). Placing third in that race was Goldikova (Anabaa),
who recently defeated her elders in the Prix Rothschild (Fr-G1), so Satan’s
Circus was certainly battle-tested against top company prior to her importation
for the American Oaks. Tracking less than three lengths behind the leaders for
the opening mile, Satan’s Circus closed the gap in the stretch and wound up
missing by three-quarters of a length at odds of 14-1. The price obviously will
be quite low this time, but a combination of back class and her versatility at
various distances leads us in her direction.

A more recent arrival on our shores is OCEANE MUSIC (Fr) (Ocean of Wisdom),
who is an
undefeated winner of all three starts including a listed event last out at Deauville. Though there were no apparent standouts behind her in any of her
victories, we respect the edge Europeans in general have over American-based
runners on the turf. Her running style suggests she will be up near the pace,
and trying 1 1/8 miles for the first does not bother us as she her broodmare sire
is Le Glorieux (GB), who proved himself over 1 1/4 miles in the
Washington D.C. International (G1) and over 1 1/2 miles in the Japan Cup
(Jpn-G1). Trainer John Shirreffs and jockey Mike Smith are also a potent combo.

STORM MESA (Sky Mesa) is the hot horse having won her last five, including
the San Clemente H. (G2) last out in her turf debut. She was fairly impressive
coming through in that prep at nearly 8-1, but value is likely to plummet this
time and it would be a surprise if the quick pace she saw in the San Clemente
were replicated here. Indeed, she might find herself much closer to the lead
here, which was rather common prior to her last start.

The speedy MISTY OCEAN (Stormy Atlantic) got caught up in the San Clemente
duel and actually did well to lose by only 1 1/2 lengths. A less pressured tempo
might enable her to last longer, as was the case in her victory in the Honeymoon
H. (G2) two starts ago. MISSIT (Ire) (Orpen) has lacked an effective closing
kick in her three starts since taking the Providencia S. (G2), and might simply
be a cut below the best in her division in California. The same concerns also
apply to BEL AIR SIZZLE (Unusual Heat), a deep closer who conceded too much
ground and position in both the San Clemente and American Oaks. She is, however,
worth a spot in exotics plans in the event she breaks more alertly.

MAGICAL FANTASY (Diesis [GB]) wasn’t beaten by much in either the Honeymoon
or American Oaks, but was not a threat to win either and will have to improve to
pull off the upset. The lightly-raced MILLION DOLLAR RUN (Tejano Run) broke her
maiden in the Railbird S. (G3) in her second career start, and most recently won
her turf debut over first-level allowance/optional claiming company. Both she
and GINGER POP (El Prado [Ire]), runner-up in the Flawlessly S. last time, are
taking a significant step up in class. The ultra-talented LETHAL HEAT (Unusual
Heat) will be making her third start of the meet and is a graded winner
sprinting and routing, but seems best at doing the former over a synthetic
surface.