OAK TREE NOTEBOOK
OCTOBER 17, 2008
by Dick Powell
Week number three of the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meet saw a dramatic drop in
field sizes and favorites’ ability to win.
For the first two weeks of the meet, the average field size for 68 races on
the Pro-Ride was a healthy 9.53. For 23 races run on the turf, it was 9.17.
The strong field sizes for the first two weeks of the meet resulted in
favorites winning 30.77 percent on the Pro-Ride and 30.43 percent on the turf
— all perfectly reasonable results considering field sizes being better
than average.
But in week three, partially because of a six-day holiday week which
stretched the horse population thin, field sizes dropped on both the Pro-Ride
and the turf. On the 39 races run on the Pro-Ride, the average field size was
now 8.00 — down from the 9.53 for the first two weeks. On the 12
races run on the turf, the average field size dropped to 7.58 —
down from the 9.17 for the first two weeks.
Usually, when field size goes down, the percentage of winning favorites goes
up. But in week three at Oak Tree, the percentage of winning favorites for the
39 races run on the Pro-Ride dropped to 23.08 percent. For 12 turf races, form continued
to hold as the favorite won 33.3 percent of the time.
Why handicapping the races on the Pro-Ride suddenly became harder when the
average field size dropped 16 percent is tough to figure. On Wednesday and
Thursday, only one favorite won on Pro-Ride — one in 13. But
examining the charts from those two days shows the normal mix of running styles
winning on the Pro-Ride. For now, we will have to call it a statistical
aberration and keep tracking it.
I have to assume that field size will continue to be less than what it was in
the first two weeks. As more horses ship in for the Breeders’ Cup and the
supporting stakes races surrounding it, local horses are displaced from their
stalls and until those stakes races are run we will see fewer horses competing.
It should all work itself out with giant fields expected for the Breeders’ Cup.
With few stakes races run, the star of the week was CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft), who was returning to the races off a 155-day layoff. Unlike most horses that go
to the sidelines, Casino Drive was scratched from the Belmont S. (G1) due to
an injury, went back to Japan, and has now come back to the United Stakes to
prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Winner of the Peter Pan S. (G2) in only his second career start, which
earned a terrific BRIS Speed Rating of 109, Casino Drive needed a race to get
ready for the Classic and a second-level allowance race at 1 1/16 miles on
Pro-Ride was selected.
Facing an overmatched field of six others, Casino Drive was sent off at 2-5
and any questions about his ability to grab a hold of the track was quickly
dispelled. With Victor Espinoza in the irons, the half-brother to Belmont S. winners JAZIL (Seeking the Gold) and RAGS TO RICHES (A.P. Indy) cruised along
while clear on the outside.
Looking like he could take the lead at any time, Espinoza was content to take
his time and stalk dawdling fractions of :24.36 and :49.07. With only two weeks to
the Classic, Espinoza was in the tenuous position of wanting to get enough out
of the race to set him up for an improved effort but not strenuous enough to set
him back. He walked the tightrope perfectly as Casino Drive went up to the lead
around the far turn and then was kept to the task in the lane to win by a
measure three-quarters of a length.
Casino Drive’s final time for the 1 1/16 miles was 1:42.14, which was good
considering how slow they went early. He covered his last five-sixteenths in :29.25, which was especially fast with the ground he lost around the turn.
They say that pace makes the race and pace certainly makes the Speed figure.
Casino Drive only earned a BRIS Speed rating of 94. But his pace figures were
52, 62 and 123. The early pace of the race was -34, -30. If this were a public
workout, which it was, the clockers would be raving about it.
Track Stats
| Week Three: | ||||
| Overall: | 13 winning favorites in 51 races | 25.41 percent | ||
| Pro-Ride: | 9 winning favorites in 39 races | 23.08 percent | ||
| Turf: | 4 winning favorites in 12 races | 33.33 percent | ||
| Meet to Date: | ||||
| Overall: | 40 winning favorites in 142 races | 38.17 percent | ||
| Pro-Ride: | 29 winning favorites in 107 races | 27.10 percent | ||
| Turf: | 11 winning favorites in 35 races | 31.43 percent. |
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (10/08)
2ND — AUSTIE (General Meeting) was a good second coming from
behind in his two-turn Santa Anita debut.
3RD — TIFFANYSPINGSROAD (Tenpins) lost all chance when he broke
poorly but still rallied nicely and merits another try against bottom claimers.
Thursday (10/09)
3RD — DIXIELAND POP (Dixieland Band) lost all chance in two-turn
debut when a 71-1 shot challenged her on the lead.
8TH — MOON MOMENT (Momentum) didn’t run bad in her two-turn
debut when racing in between horses through a fast pace.
Friday (10/10)
3RD — ROYAL FORTUNE (Giant’s Causeway) was a good third in her
career debut in a wide trip.
5TH — WILD AND READY (More Than Ready) had no shot rallying from
behind when the two speed horses ran one-two.
Saturday (10/11)
4TH — LICORICEWHIP (Black Minnaloushe) rallied nicely in his
career debut going down the hill for Jerry Fanning, who only wins with 4 percent
of his firsters anyway.
6TH — ROYAL TAAT (NZ) (Faltaat) overcame traffic to win going
away in a downhill turf sprint and looks to be stakes quality for John Sadler.
Sunday (10/12)
6TH — WILMA RULES (Tribal Rules) was used hard from post 1 before tiring some in his career debut and can be back from an outside draw.
Monday (10/13)
4TH — PEARL FISHER (Smart Strike) was a good third in his turf
debut and should be tough going longer than a mile.