TURF DIARY
OCTOBER 21, 2008
by Kellie Reilly
Like an undecided voter in a swing state, I have analyzed, overanalyzed, and
agonized over the contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and Mile (G1).
After all the past performances, trainers’ quotes, pedigree trivia and
historical indicators have been absorbed, it ultimately comes down to a gut
decision. Deep down, at the cellular, or even molecular level, who do you really
want to support? Who do you still have nagging doubts about, despite his
superficial allure? Who do you still have confidence in, despite his occasional
faux pas?
As always, my selections are tinged by my rooting interests and cherished
theories, so I don’t hold out the pretense of being an impartial scribe. Since I
have written about the preps in various diaries over the course of the season, I
won’t review them here, preferring to give my impressions of my chosen few.
TURF:
1st — EAGLE MOUNTAIN (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), as noted
in my last International Diary, is a top-class individual who suddenly flew onto
the Breeders’ Cup radar screen in recent weeks for new trainer Mike de Kock.
Sidelined for most of the year by a fractured pelvis, the four-year-old made a
winning reappearance in the Joel S. (Eng-G3) at Newmarket, finishing strongly to
score in a thriller while setting a new course record for the mile. Befitting a
horse who prefers 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles, Eagle Mountain was only just warming up
at the end.
As useful as the Joel was as a tightener, it pales in comparison to the kind
of company that the multiple Group 2 winner was keeping in his past two seasons
for Aidan O’Brien, and those formlines are persuasive. As a juvenile, he was
narrowly defeated by the all-conquering champion Teofilo in the Futurity S.
(Ire-G2), and he finished a decent fourth to Authorized on unsuitably heavy
ground in the Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1). In his three-year-old debut, Eagle
Mountain checked in a solid fifth in the Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), just
behind then-stablemate Duke of Marmalade (Ire) (Danehill) in fourth, and
followed up with an excellent second to Authorized in the Derby (Eng-G1).
Although no threat to the dominating Derby winner, Eagle Mountain’s runner-up
effort was excellent because he was hampered early, turned into the
stretch near the tail of the field, yet rolled home to finish a clear second.
Most tellingly for the Turf, he left then-stablemate SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Ire)
(Galileo [Ire]) about 3 1/2 lengths behind him in fifth at Epsom. Soldier of
Fortune turned the tables with a runaway victory on desperately soft ground in
the Irish Derby (Ire-G1), where Eagle Mountain was a one-paced third, but the
Santa Anita conditions will be much closer to Epsom than the Curragh. The victim
of an aggressive opponent in the Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-G1), where he clipped
heels and unshipped Kieren Fallon, Eagle Mountain concluded his campaign with a
near-miss second in the 1 1/4-mile Champion S. (Eng-G1), defeating the classy
globetrotter Doctor Dino (Fr) (Muhtathir [GB]).
Last summer, Fallon, as shrewd a judge of horseflesh as any in the industry,
prognosticated that Eagle Mountain was capable of bagging a major prize going 1
1/2 miles on good ground. For the first time since that vote of confidence was
issued, he will get that opportunity. While he receives abundant stamina from
his broodmare sire Darshaan, Eagle Mountain has inherited some speed from his
sire, the extraordinary miler Rock of Gibraltar (Ire), whose 2002 loss in the
Mile still rankles, as well as from his second dam, Masarika (Ire) (Thatch),
winner of the 1984 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (Fr-G1). Blessed with a greater
touch of speed than Soldier of Fortune, Eagle Mountain should thrive at Santa Anita, perhaps
instilling a sense of seller’s remorse at Ballydoyle.
2nd — CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani) was a surprising addition to
the Turf, since he was supposed to go on his winter vacation following his
impressive victory in the St Leger (Eng-G1). Sir Michael Stoute does not enter
the Breeders’ Cup for the fun of it, however, and the very presence of this
exciting sophomore, his first runner in the Turf in six years, is significant. A
Ballymacoll Stud homebred with a mouthwatering pedigree, Conduit has
demonstrated the ability to travel well and unleash a wicked turn of foot.
Indeed, it was that telling burst that thrashed his rivals silly in the about 1
3/4-mile St Leger, so he’s no plodder. Earlier this season, he was a troubled
runner-up in the King Edward VII S. (Eng-G2), which as I’ve observed in a few
diaries, has been a very productive race. Through both the St Leger and King
Edward VII form, Conduit is well ahead of WINCHESTER (Theatrical [Ire]), who put
on such an outstanding display in the Secretariat S. (G1).
Admittedly, this is a much bigger challenge than anything Conduit’s been
assigned thus far, but if Stoute thinks he’s up for it, so do I. Remember that
the St Leger, despite the relative paucity of its alumni going on to the
Breeders’ Cup, has had a notable impact on the Turf in recent years: RED ROCKS
(Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) was third in England’s oldest, and longest, classic before
pulling his upset in 2006, and smashing Leger winner Milan (GB) was a close
second to Fantastic Light in 2001. Conduit can continue the trend, and in the
process, help to atone for the disappointing Breeders’ Cup performance of his
maternal-line relative, Petrushka (Ire), who checked in fifth as the favorite in
the 2000 Filly & Mare Turf (G1).
3rd — SOLDIER OF FORTUNE may appear to be a vulnerable
favorite on this course, but the O’Brien charge is far too talented and
professional to leave out altogether. Moreover, it must be pointed out that he’s
exiting a respectable third to Zarkava in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1),
and the Arc has historically proven to be an indispensable clue to success in
the Turf. While “The Soldier” moves up on soft ground, he’s also done well in
faster conditions, notably when capturing the 2007 Prix Niel (Fr-G2) in a
stakes-record 2:25.60 at Longchamp. And, while most of his races have come on
wide, galloping courses, he did handle the tight left-handed turns of Chester
when landing the Chester Vase (Eng-G3) last year, albeit in hard-fought fashion.
To top it all off, he has a magnificent resume, boasting an Irish Derby and a
Coronation Cup (Eng-G1).
For all of those reasons, I won’t be surprised if he stamps his class on the
Turf, justifies his likely short odds, and hands his family another top-level
victory in the space of a week, following the juvenile Intense Focus’s (Giant’s
Causeway) score in last Saturday’s prestigious Dewhurst S. (Eng-G1). On the
other hand, The Soldier strikes me as a dour type, a thorough-going galloper,
who can sustain a powerful run, but just lacks that little bit of finesse.
Accordingly, he prospers in conditions that put a premium on those traits, but
not necessarily when push-button acceleration is required. Given the firm turf,
and sharper contours of Santa Anita, a lethal dose of speed will likely come
into play, and The Soldier may not be able to parry the thrust. It may be worth
contrasting him with O’Brien’s only Turf winner, High Chaparral (Ire), who won
outright in 2002 and dead-heated here at Santa Anita in 2003. An Irish Derby
winner who was twice third in the Arc, High Chaparral also had the sharpness
required to capture the Epsom Derby and to defeat a world-class field in the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion
S. (Ire-G1). In contrast, The Soldier has not even tried a distance as short as
1 1/4 miles since his juvenile days, reinforcing my conviction that he’s not
quite up to High Chaparral’s standard.
Longshot — I’d love to give a tip of the hat to Horse of the Year
Curlin (Smart Strike) by selecting Red Rocks, who defeated him in his turf
experiment in the Man o’ War S. (G1), but I’m worried about any possibly
lingering effects of his hock infection. If he defies his 3 1/2-month layoff,
and wins in his first outing for Mark Hennig, it will reflect beautifully upon
Curlin.
Instead, I’ll stick with Phipps Stable’s homebred DANCING FOREVER (Rahy)
as my longshot. The late-blooming five-year-old rocketed into the top tier of
the division earlier this year, especially when just missing to Einstein (Brz)
(Spend a Buck) at Gulfstream and outdueling OUT OF CONTROL (Brz) (Vettori) in
the Manhattan H. (G1) on firm turf. Since then, the New York weather, and
ground, went against him, and resulted in a pair of abysmal efforts. At Santa
Anita, the Shug
McGaughey charge is virtually guaranteed to run his race, and he
will be finishing fast. It’s an open question whether he will be good enough,
but Dancing Forever’s formline got a timely boost when Out of Control lost a
heartbreaker to Red Giant in world-record time in the Clement L. Hirsch Turf
Championship (G1). And unlike Out of Control, Dancing Forever is proven at 1 1/2
miles. If he surprises in the Turf, Dancing Forever would provide his
illustrious female line with another Breeders’ Cup hero, following Dancing Spree
in the 1989 Sprint (G1). If he garners a minor award, he would follow the
close-but-no-cigar example of his dam’s full sister, Heavenly Prize, who placed
in three Breeders’ Cup events, including a neck loss in the 1994 Distaff (G1).
MILE:
1st — The French filly GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) has yet to
lose since she parted ways with the matchless Zarkava this summer, compiling
three straight victories, two of them in august older company. As if that were
not a compelling enough statistic, the last time the Mile was staged at Santa
Anita, in 2003, victory went to another French sophomore filly in Six
Perfections (Fr). The Freddie Head-trained Goldikova looks poised to follow in
her hoofsteps. She has a high cruising speed, enabling her to get into a
tactically advantageous position early, then finishes her rivals off with a
strong late kick. With no shortage of speedy types lining up in the Mile, she
may find herself a little farther back than usual, but she does have plenty of
experience in tracking a fairly generous pace. Indeed, Goldikova is an
unusually, even deceptively, good traveler. Only by looking at her toiling
opponents can one appreciate how fast she is actually moving.
Earlier this season, when finishing second to Zarkava in the Poule d’Essai
des Pouliches (French One Thousand Guineas), Goldikova defeated
subsequent multiple Group 1 heroine and Filly & Mare Turf (G1) contender Halfway
to Heaven (Ire) (Pivotal). Last time out, Goldikova captured the Prix du Moulin
(Fr-G1) versus males, with no less a personage than Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo)
in fifth on unsuitably rain-softened ground. The filly is equally effective on
fast ground, and she is admirably consistent, with a sparkling record of
8-5-2-1. If she runs up to her European form, she ought to win. After all, the
theme of fillies defeating colts runs in the family: Goldikova’s third dam, Gold
River (Fr), won the Arc in 1981.
2nd — I toyed with choosing WHATSTHESCRIPT (Ire) (Royal
Applause [GB]) to pull the upset, but could not break free of Goldikova’s
gravitational pull. Although I was critical of the form of his Del Mar Mile H.
(G2) victory in my last diary, and thought he had no excuse when second in the
Eddie Read H. (G1), I keep having the unshakeable impression that he did not really level off, at least the way he is capable of, in
either race at Del Mar. At Hollywood Park, however, his winning move in the
American H. (G2) was simply breathtaking. Now back at Santa Anita, where he
looked like the next big thing in the 2007 Pasadena S. as a sophomore, the John
Sadler charge is eligible to take flight.
Like my top Turf selection Eagle Mountain, “Script” also placed behind
Teofilo as a juvenile, checking in third in the 2006 Tyros S. at Leopardstown.
He has had a rollercoaster career in the United States, with brilliant
performances punctuated by the odd disappointments and extended layoffs, but he
has finally begun to fulfill his inordinate potential since transferring to
Sadler. Script will get an honest pace to set up his patented rally, and I won’t
be disappointed if he catches Goldikova. In fact, he has a tenuous connection to
the winner of the 1986 Mile at Santa Anita, Last Tycoon (Ire), who is by Try My
Best, the paternal great-grandsire of Script.
3rd — DAYTONA (Ire) (Indian Ridge) was sweeping all before him
during a golden span at the end of last year and the beginning of 2008, but he
lost his way when sixth in the aforementioned American. Freshened up by Dan
Hendricks, the chestnut returned with a decent fourth to Script in the Del Mar
Mile. I suspect that Daytona will make giant progress off that reappearance, and
it’s worth recalling that he’s unbeaten in three starts at Santa Anita,
including a rout in the Oak Tree Derby (G2). A versatile campaigner, he has
captured Grade 1 events from one mile, the Shoemaker, up to the 1 1/4 miles of
the Hollywood Derby. That not only speaks to his pure class; it also suggests
that a fully fit Daytona can survive the expected early pace scrum with THORN
SONG (Unbridled’s Song) and defending champion KIP DEVILLE (Kipling).
Daytona’s connections have made no secret about how well he has been training
in advance of this target. If he rediscovers his more relaxed pace-prompting technique, does not try to go eyeball-to-eyeball early, gets first run on Goldikova and has enough left for the final barrage from Script, Daytona would
become the third Mile hero sired by Indian Ridge. The first two were Ridgewood
Pearl (GB) in 1995 and Domedriver (Ire) in 2002. But any credit must also be
ascribed to Daytona’s second dam, dual mile classic heroine L’Attrayante (Fr)
(Tyrant), who won the Pouliches and the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) in
1983.
Longshot: I tried to find a way to include PRECIOUS KITTEN (Catienus)
in this category, considering her outstanding record in Southern California and
her overall honest attitude. Although I would have preferred her to run in the
Filly & Mare Turf, I don’t doubt her ability, or willingness, to compete against
these. Both qualities can carry her a long way.
But I’ve got to go for the talented, if utterly maddening, US RANGER (Danzig),
who will be one of O’Brien’s longest shots in the entire two-day Breeders’ Cup.
Once highly regarded, this exquisitely bred four-year-old is out of a
three-quarter sister to top sire Dynaformer, so he has massive appeal as a
stallion prospect. Despite his raw natural gifts, US Ranger lacks that
all-important signature victory, and the Mile would be just the ticket to
first-year stud stardom. It’s notable that he is Ballydoyle’s sole
representative in the Mile, with Henrythenavigator opting for the Classic (G1)
and Halfway to Heaven going in the Filly & Mare Turf. Aside from the other
calculations at work here, these arrangements may imply that his connections are
willing to put all of their eggs in his basket.
In light of his status as a quirky underachiever, US Ranger reminds me an awful lot
of Antonius Pius, who nearly upset the 2004 Mile for O’Brien at odds of 31-1. At three, US
Ranger ran a better-than-appears seventh in the Two Thousand Guineas, to which
he was supplemented, and jockey Christophe Lemaire averred that he was a proper
Group 1 animal. The idiosyncratic bay has not fully justified that view, but he has gone
close a few times, most agonizingly when just nipped on the line by Marchand
d’Or (Marchand de Sable), Europe’s premier sprinter, in the six-furlong July Cup
(Eng-G1) this summer. Last time out, US Ranger was a rallying fourth, just
missing third, in the seven-furlong Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1) in first-time
blinkers. The change in distance may be the key to success in the Mile, for he
has been kept in sprints ever since the Guineas. Perhaps stretching back out in
trip will be the making of him.
Moreover, the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Santa Anita has been kind a couple of
times to those with sprinting qualifications — the aforementioned Last Tycoon
was a pure sprinter, and in 1993, runner-up Ski Paradise was exiting a fifth in
the Foret. US Ranger will attempt to become the enormously influential Danzig’s
third Mile conqueror, following two-time winner Lure (1992-93) and War Chant
(2000). With his pedigree, connections, and latent ability, he’s worth a flyer,
just in case he chooses the best day of his life to put it all together. And he
might, if he knows that his stud destination depends upon it.