HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 19, 2008
by Dick Powell
Besides “Who do you like,” the question I hear the most is “How do you bet?”
There’s no easy answer, but I’ll give it a shot.
First of all, handicapping is easy; betting is hard. But beyond the actual
execution of bets, there are many other factors going on that needs to be
understood if you are going to have a chance.
I want to make money. Sometimes that means winning more than losing,
sometimes that means walking away when I’m ahead and sometimes that means
walking away when I am behind. My goal is not to break the bank, to be carried
out on the shoulders of my fellow bettors or have the simulcast site ban me
because I am winning too much. For every anecdote about someone that went to the
track with a small bankroll and hit it big there are far more tales of bettors
not picking up their stack and walking away ahead.
So I think it makes sense to ask yourself WHY you bet. But you also have to
take a hard look at yourself and examine whether your behavior is in line with
your goal. I have a friend that I am convinced bets in a way that increases the
chance that the next race could enter his Tale of Woe Hall of Fame. He has every
imaginable bad beat story. In fact, if I wasn’t with him and saw first-hand how
no lead was safe or how the wire always seems to come up before his rallying
horse can get there, I wouldn’t believe it myself. I once told him that “Doctor Melfi
would say that you want to lose.”
If your goal is to have fun, make sure that you have fun. If your goal is to
have a life-changing score, make sure that you fall out of love with odds-on
favorites. If your goal is to go to a wagering site and enjoy talking to your
buddies, bet in a way that will enable you to do that for many years.
Here’s one you see all the time. Most horseplayers I know would consider
themselves “Old School.” In between races you’ll hear discussions about Terrell
Owens and his excessive end-zone celebrations. Yet, the same horseplayer will
overreact to wins and losses to their own detriment.
The “Old School” horseplayer will have a nice score and then start betting
way beyond their comfort zone. They’ll lose focus from winning and start making
money management mistakes. Without realizing it, they are behaving like T.O.
except his celebrations seem to make him more money while the “Old School”
horseplayer is wasting precious bankroll dollars. The advice of football coaches
to act like you’ve done it before after you score a touchdown can be applied
when you have a big score. Act like it’s no big deal and you might get another
one.
One weakness I have is when I bet using money that is in an account. When I
go to the track at Saratoga, I don’t bring all my cash with me. But in account
wagering, all your resources are available and for some reason I don’t handle it
well. It’s not that I overbet by amount but seem to overbet by taking on more
races than I should. Too many bets in a negative sum game is not financially
healthy.
Do you keep accurate records? Some account wagering companies do a good job
of breaking down your betting records by track or wager type. If they do, use
it. You need to know what your strengths and weaknesses are and record-keeping
can go a long way to get you to divert your focus toward more profitable
situations.
I confess I do not read handicapping books. Odd for someone that writes a
column on handicapping, but that’s me. What I do read are books about how the
mind works and how it affects decision-making. Books like “The Tipping Point”
and “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell might not tell you how to bet the daily double, but should help you understand how the mind works and what goes into making
astute decisions.
I read all sorts of investment newsletters that show up in my internet
mailbox. Our investment account is no better than anyone else’s these days, but
there’s a lot to learn about contrarian theory and market trends.
When I have a tough beat, I prefer to spend more time on why I made certain
decisions than how the races were actually run. Yes, a rider’s decision can cost
you or as we have seen lately, it might be the stewards. But I am convinced that
the single biggest obstacle toward my success is me and the better I understand
me the better my decisions will be. This summer, I lost a heart-breaking Pick
6 at Hollywood Park. I had five of six but lost the American Oaks (G1) when I
left out the winner, Pure Clan (Pure Prize). I went three deep in the race and
thought that Pure Clan would get shuffled back from post one and have too much
traffic to overcome. My thinking was right, but Julien Leparoux gave her a great
ride and she was able to get into contention by passing numerous horses on the
inside down the backside. When the field turned for home, Satan’s Circus (Gone
West) took the lead and with a 100 yards to go at 15-1 things looked good, but Leparoux boldly split horses to win in the shadow of the wire.
If Satan’s Circus wins, the Pick 6 is more than six figures. But I can’t control
who gets the trip and who finds the hole. What I can control is how I
constructed my ticket so my self analysis was more about why did I leave out
Pure Clan and not hit a nice $13K Pick 6.
Yes, the big fish got away, but a good-sized fish was ripe for the taking and
I blew it. It wasn’t the happy ending that I was looking for, but a few weeks
later on a Friday night I put in a $96 Pick 6 back at Hollywood, went to bed,
got up Saturday morning, watched the replays of all six races and found that I
hit a Pick Six that paid around $9k with the winner and consolations. It wasn’t
a life-changing score but sometimes a par after a bogey gets you back on track
as well as a birdie would.
Which brings me to a philosophy that I firmly believe: winning begets
winning. If you bet in a way where the wins are few and far between but you are
looking for a big return, how do you stay sharp? Even with the Pick 6, where
the wins are few and far between,
I limit my plays to carryover days where the carryover substantially eats into
the takeout. Most of the ones I play are in Southern California and the only
other place I will play them is when New York has a decent carryover. Without
large pool sizes, it doesn’t make any sense for me to play. Most of my plays are
under $200 and they are a small percentage of my play, but they constitute a
large percentage of my winnings.
Sometimes the best way to break a slump is to have a winner of any kind.
Forget the tote board. Watching your horse cross the finish line first can be
just the thing you need to get back on the winning track.
Horseplayers are creatures of habit and I am no exception. I drive a very
visible yellow pick-up truck and it can usually be found in the same section of
the parking lot. I don’t sit in the same seat every day but like to be in a
section with a bit of privacy. I’m not anal about it, but I tend to behave in
certain, predictable ways. When I don’t, the results are usually not very good.