HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 26, 2008
by Dick Powell
Hard to tell how good PIONEER OF THE NILE (Empire Maker) really is after his
narrow win in Saturday’s Hollywood Futurity (G1) nor how well he will run in
next year’s classics.
But, I’ll cut him some slack and rate his performance as having more
positives than negatives.
First, the negatives: he was life and death to beat I Want Revenge (Stephen
Got Even), who had just broken his maiden in his fourth lifetime start.
Pioneerof the Nile struggled around the far turn when Garrett Gomez asked him
for run as it took him about a sixteenth of a mile to get into gear. And how
much of his nose victory was his gameness as opposed to Gomez’s finishing
strength? Does he win with a lesser rider?
Pioneerof the Nile’s final time for the 1 1/16 miles run on the cushion track
was 1:41.95. Considering how the early pace was modest — :23.42, :47.08, and
1:11.34 — his final BRIS Speed rating was only 91, seven points less than his
career best when he was beaten less than three lengths in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1).
Now, the positives: Pioneerof the Nile had every right to get beat on
Saturday but didn’t. He raced wide behind a slow pace (-6, -8 according to the
BRIS Pace figures) and flew home with a final Late Pace figure of 102. This is
the second straight route race where he came home with a Late Pace figure over
100 and it shows that he is doing his best running when he’ll need to next year.
Even though he didn’t show push-button acceleration, he did everything Gomez
wanted him to do. Considering it was his third Grade 1 stakes in a row, the fact
that he gamely battled to the wire was very telling.
Next, I love his pedigree being by Empire Mark (Unbridled) out of a Lord at
War (Arg) mare. With any luck, Empire Maker could have been a Triple Crown
winner but a bad foot got him beat in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and forced him to
miss the Preakness (G1). While all this was going on, Funny Cide came to the
fore and won the first two legs before Empire Maker came back to beat him in a
rainy Belmont S. (G1).
A quick diversion: one reason why it makes no sense to take what trainers say
about their horse’s condition or general health literally was trainer Bobby
Frankel’s performance before Empire Maker’s Derby. Empire Maker, in his final
workout, blew the turn badly and did not look like he was over his foot
problems. But there was Frankel, a day before the race, proclaiming his horse
fit and ready to go. Ignore what your eyes told you; listen to Bobby. Now, fast
forward to this year’s Belmont and trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. and his constant
denials that a bad foot would stop Big Brown. He learned from the best.
Back to Pioneerof the Nile. He will only need a start or two to get ready
next year for the first Saturday in May. He already has raced five times — all
at 8 1/2 furlongs — so he goes into next year with the most miles under his
belt of any major contender. Now trained by Bob Baffert after being with Bill
Mott for his first four starts, I would expect one start at Santa Anita next
year then a trip to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial (G1), which would mark his
first start on dirt.
For years, horseplayers have pleaded, “all we want is consistency.” Well, the
stewards at Hollywood Park have certainly achieved consistency and the
predictability that goes along with it. Sunday was closing day and it made
perfect sense that there would be another inquiry with the result left to stand.
Mike Smith turned for home with ACCLAMATION (Unusual Heat) in the 6TH race
and as he began to edge clear he drifted out into the path of Corey Nakatani
aboard Meteore (Pulpit), who had to steady enough to cost him second place. The
lights started blinking and the question was if Smith was far enough ahead of
Nakatani to go where he wanted in the deep stretch.
There was no doubt that Acclamation was pulling away from Meteore with a
hundred yards to go, but did the drifting out cost Meteore second place? When
Nakatani had to slam on the brakes to avoid clipping heels he lost all momentum
and wound up in fourth place.
The stewards ruled that Acclamation was clear and let the result stand. Not
the worst call but part of a strange pattern of behavior that does not take into
account the dangers of this kind of race riding. (In the interest of full
disclosure, I had no financial interest riding on the outcome of this race
although I wish I had someone to make a bet with that they would leave
Acclamation up).