KENTUCKY OAKS REPORT
MARCH 21, 2009
Five rivals were all that showed up to challenge RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia
d’Oro) in last Saturday’s Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), but not one of them actually
mounted any kind of challenge. While I was impressed at just how easily she won, I
believe that the bay lass does need some kind of test prior to the May 1
Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Fair Grounds Oaks: Rachel Alexandra sailed to the lead in the Fair
Grounds Oaks, easily adapting to the sloppy, sealed track conditions, which is
reassuring for Kentucky Oaks Day if a not-so-surprising, surprise Bluegrass
thunderstorm pops up before the race. Jockey Calvin Borel sat chilly all the way
down the backstretch and proceeded to a hand ride in the stretch. Rachel
Alexandra never appeared pressured or tested at any point in the 1 1/16-mile
race, which makes the 102 BRIS Speed rating she earned all that more impressive.
That’s actually the same number she was awarded following her Golden Rod S. (G2)
score at Churchill Downs in November.
The biggest news from the Fair Grounds Oaks was the show Borel put on in the
stretch. As one of my esteemed colleagues said, it appeared as if Borel was
taunting FLYING SPUR (Giant’s Causeway) and jockey Patrick Valenzuela, who were
running in behind them. Turning several times to glance behind, Borel proceeded
to wrap up on Rachel Alexandra long before the wire. He also began celebrating
and, as a result of those actions, Rachel Alexandra’s final margin of victory
was only 1 3/4 lengths.
I’m wondering just what, exactly, Borel was celebrating. This was the Fair
Grounds Oaks, not the Kentucky Oaks or the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1).
And it wasn’t exactly the toughest field in the world, either. Some have labeled
his actions shameful. All I have to say is that Borel needs to get his mind back
to the business at hand and keep it there.
Trainer Hal Wiggins mentioned a couple of options for Rachel Alexandra ahead
of the Kentucky Oaks, including a tilt against the boys in the April 11 Arkansas
Derby (G2), but the striking three-year-old will more than likely show up in the
Fantasy S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park on April 5. Blushing K. D. used her easy Fantasy
score in 1997 as a springboard to Oaks glory, but she was the last Oaks winner
to even run in the Fantasy. A more traditional route to the Oaks has been
through the Ashland S. (G1) at Keeneland, but that track’s synthetic surface has
thrown a wrench in the works. Other dirt races, like the Fantasy, are appearing
much more informative routes for Oaks success now.
Florida Oaks: Tampa Bay Downs’ Florida Oaks (G3) is another
non-traditional Oaks prep, but it has been used. Most notably when Secret Status
won the 2000 running by a neck before dominating the Oaks next out by 6 3/4
lengths. While Alan Brodsky, owner of Saturday’s Florida Oaks victress DON’T
FORGET GIL (Kafwain), didn’t commit his filly to the Kentucky Oaks, he
definitely left the door open.
Even if Don’t Forget Gil misses the Kentucky Oaks her connections have to be
happy about turning the tables on ROCK CANDY (Mineshaft) and AMERIBELLE
(Medaglia d’Oro), who had finished in front of Don’t Forget Gil by two necks in
the Suncoast S. last out. Those two never got a chance to even challenge in the
Florida Oaks. Don’t Forget Gil settled to the outside when the gates opened,
running in tandem with DZIBANCHE (Roar of the Tiger) behind the leader down the
backstretch. The dark bay miss began moving up leaving the backstretch, took
over before entering the final turn and proceeded to draw off after coming wide
into the lane. The final margin was four lengths on the line.
I believe that Don’t Forget Gil has a shot in the Kentucky Oaks. She may not
have been beating Grade 1 rivals in the Florida Oaks, but the filly has shown
progression in each of her races. She looks better in each new race and now has
the graded earnings to make the field. It’s worth taking a shot at, considering
the longshots who have won in recent years.
Honeybee: JUST JENDA (Menifee) entered Sunday’s Honeybee S. (G3) at
Oaklawn Park off a disappointing third in the Silverbulletday S. (G3). She was
sent off the third choice in the seven-filly field but recorded an easy win
under jockey Gabriel Saez.
Just Jenda allowed PEACH BREW (Milwaukee Brew) and BON JOVI GIRL (Malibu
Moon) to take the lead into the backstretch. She found herself running alongside
Peach Brew as that one dropped back, then moved up to settle just off Bon Jovi
Girl. Just Jenda drew even with the pacesetter, began pulling clear rounding the
turn and drew off to post the three-length victory.
I’m a big fan of trainer Larry Jones and hope that Just Jenda goes on to the
Kentucky Oaks. Unfortunately, I don’t think she’s good enough to beat Rachel
Alexandra just yet. The chestnut lass only earned a 95 Speed rating for her
Honeybee score and will have to do much better than that if she hopes to contend
on May 1.
While I like Just Jenda, I was really impressed with Honeybee runner-up
AFLEET DECEIT (Northern Afleet). The Terry Gestes trainee was a well-beaten
second to Rachel Alexandra in the Martha Washington S., but seems to be on the
improve. Running in the back of the Honeybee while saving ground along rail,
Afleet Deceit appeared out of it nearing the turn. She suddenly kicked into
another gear and angled out to run down the middle of the track in the lane. The
bay filly made up a lot of ground late, recording an excellent 105 BRIS Late
Pace number, and is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Upcoming: Lemons Forever put the Bourbonette Oaks (G3) on the map as a
Kentucky Oaks prep, just missing by a length while finishing third in 2006 prior
to her shocking 47-1 upset in the Oaks. The connections of Saturday’s runners in
the Bourbonette at Turfway Park are probably hoping for yet another shake-up in
the Oaks, but there’s really only one who might have a chance at even going in
the Kentucky Oaks. FITZ JUST RIGHT (Seattle Fitz [Arg]) was fourth by 1 3/4
lengths in the Busanda S. going a mile and 70 yards prior to a half-length score
in the O.B.S. Filly Championship S. on February 16. The only other true dirt
horse in the field is STONE LEGACY (Birdstone), who broke her maiden going 8 1/2
furlongs at Oaklawn on February 12 then ran second in a one-mile allowance last
out. However, her numbers are nowhere near what they need to be to make her a
Kentucky Oaks contender.