CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
JUNE 25, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
Great success arrived in the dark on June 18 with Churchill’s first evening
program in 135 years of presenting racing. Of course it is summer, so the first
seven of the program’s 11 races were contested from daylight to twilight. The
night, so to speak, began with race 8, when the temporary lighting system went
into operation. An estimated crowd of 30,000 was reportedly on track and
thousands of off-track betting theaters offered Churchill to their night crowds
for the first time.
Track officials said they are investigating the overall facts and figures to
decide whether night racing will become a staple. The June 19 night card was the
first of three during this spring meet. Night cards on June 26 and July 3
will follow.
Track stats
With 382 races in the books through June 21, 128 favorites have won. This
puts the average of favorites winning at the template 33 percent. Make note that
the percentage includes all distances, turf and dirt, and all track conditions.
That makes the magic of that figure all the more remarkable. This game is
something awesome, with mathematics as tried and true as space science. It
always impresses me.
The crowd was most sharp on June 18 and June 21. On both of those dates the
public choices won six of the day’s races.
During the four-program week, you might have noticed many maiden events.
Indeed, 41 percent of the week’s 41 races were either maiden claiming or maiden
special weight events, at various distances, dirt and turf. I will work up some
maiden stats for an upcoming week’s notebook to see if any trends are surfacing
with non-winner events.
Trainer Ian Wilkes is still second in money-earned this meet, even though he
sits in 12th place among the standings. He has done that with eight
wins, six places and five shows from 43 starts, compared to first-place Steve
Asmussen’s 23-17-16 record with 112 starts.
Coming up
Freshman fillies load into the gate for the $100,000 Debutante S. (G3) on June 27.
DECELERATOR (Dehere), OUR TEKELA ROSE (Kela), PHONE MARYBE (Officer) and HENRY’S POSSE
(Posse) each broke
their maidens this spring and are in the field of two-year-olds in
the event’s 109th running.
Decelerator is the top early choice. She won her maiden in her first race,
taking the five-furlong contest in the slop on May 14. D. Wayne Lukas trains
Decelerator and he is no stranger to this stakes; he has won the Debutante a
record six times.
Other undefeated fillies who entered include Our Tekela Rose, who won on the Polytrack at Arlington Park on May 24; Phone Marybe, a 9
1/2-length victress at Calder on May 7; and Henry’s Posse, who soared to a 7 1/2-length win
at Pimlico on May 2. All three of these gals won at 4 1/2 furlongs.
Also entered is SEND ROSE THECHECK (Buddha), also a winner at 4
1/2 furlongs, but in her second start at Evangeline Downs on May 22.
HORSES TO WATCH
Thursday (6/18)
3RD — DRESS IN DUBAI (E Dubai) was racing well until two ganged up on either side of
her lead to beat her. This is a lone-speed danger in another scenario.
4TH — WILDCAT WILL (Forest Wildcat) had speed at first crack, just what you want to see from a
maiden, no less at 26-1. Watch him extend that lead next out, maybe even be first
at the end.
6TH — MOSAIC (Storm Cat) bobbled badly at the start, losing any chance of the lead
she
wanted. It was a good fight back once she settled, but she recovered three wide and
that was no help.
8TH — WHIPPORWILL CREEK (Forest Camp) is a Delaware shipper who was close to the top early
while wide and strong for a spell. There could be better trips ahead.
9TH — SCRATCH TURNS (Petionville) showed early foot from post 10 in a large field, holding
on for third with grace at 6-1.
Friday (6/19)
2ND — MINEWANDER (Mineshaft) had decent speed in this grass event and seemed better than
her 21-1 status. She raced wide too long and that, on this course, is no easy
pathway to victory.
4TH — COUNTRY LASS (Gibson County) is a Canadian visitor who showed off rather well on the
turf, dueling to the three-eighths and respectively losing to the public choice.
5TH — SIXTYSIX MARGAUX (Yes It’s True) made a great racing debut, showing speed that is bound
to stick very soon, especially with a straight path instead of a wide one.
Saturday (6/20)
3RD — STORMY LIAISON (Stormy Atlantic) is from Indiana Downs and was 14-1 in this maiden special
weight turf affair. She was not shamed, showing good early speed at this mile.
Watch for a shorter distance and a chance to get a clear lead early, grass or
dirt.
4TH — NATIONAL PARK (Ecton Park) is a cheap claimer picking up a new owner after this 8-1
failure and may improve next out, as some of these types are apt to do when
someone feels they are worth claiming.
6TH — EXPECT VALIDITY (Valid Expectations) is another cheap claimer who was purchased before
showing some good stuff in this company, finishing second.
Sunday (6/21)
6TH — MR. CHAMP (Mr. Greeley) was dull from post 7, never getting in full stride.
Definitely a clunker for one fitting so well with this group.
10TH — I’M THE TRUTH (Yes It’s True) was fast and furious most of the way but lost to two
horses who were longshots (50-1 and 15-1, respectively) and had not raced since
2008.