HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 26, 2009
by Dick Powell
With all the rain we have had in the Northeast the past month, it’s hard to
concentrate on turf racing, but the sun will eventually come out and we must be
prepared. I always like to look at the jockeys since so much of turf racing
depends on a rider saving ground as much as possible and some just seem to be
more adept at it than others.
On the NYRA circuit, Ramon Dominguez continues to put up spectacular numbers.
For 2009, he’s winning at an amazing 27 percent clip with a ROI of -0.33. On the turf, where
the larger field sizes usually means that riders win at a lower percentage,
Dominguez is winning with 23 percent of his mounts and shows a positive ROI of +0.02.
What’s impressive about Dominguez’s statistics is that this is the first year
that he has committed to ride in New York full time. In the past, he would make
Delaware Park as his base of operations and pile up some gaudy statistics. This
year, he’s doing it in New York against better competition and still doing
great.
The turf rider that gives us the most value is Jose Lezcano. Like Dominguez,
he usually rides out of town this time of year — Monmouth Park in recent years
— but he has set up shop in New York and you can still catch him at a nice price
on the grass. Overall for 2009, Lezcano is winning with 18 percent of his mounts for a
positive ROI of +0.09. On the turf, he’s winning with 17 percent of his mounts and
returning a very healthy positive ROI of +0.57.
The great thing about Lezcano is that he’s still relatively unknown in New
York and his horses continue to outrun their odds. Part of it due to the
trainers getting used to using him and part of it is due to the bettors letting
him off at longer odds than they should. Watch for him to have a great Saratoga
meet.
As young as he is, Alan Garcia is a proven commodity on the turf. He’s
winning with 15 percent of his overall mounts with a ROI of -0.17, but wins with 16
percent of
his turf mounts and shows a better ROI of -0.08. Garcia can win on the front end
or come from behind, and you can always find him on the hedge.
Kent Desormeaux is having another sensational year, winning with 20 percent of his
overall mounts, and shows a solid ROI of -0.13. On the turf, Desormeaux is
winning at a 21 percent rate and shows a ROI of -0.11.
On the downside, Jorge Chavez is having a strong season, winning with 15
percent of
his overall mounts and a ROI of -0.03. However, on the turf, Chavez has not won
in his last 57 starts.
With all the rain Belmont has had the past month, I wish there was a way of
knowing what Chavez’s win percentage on wet tracks is. He’s a good gate rider,
so he puts his horses into the race early and is still fearless. One of these
days, I’ll have to go through the charts and see what I come up with. So when it
rains, Chavez gets a double positive — races off the turf (where he is zero for his
last 57 mounts) and races run over wet tracks where he seems to excel.
John Velazquez is having a good year, winning with 20 percent of his mounts and
showing a solid ROI of -0.10. However, on the turf, the numbers drop
dramatically as he is winning only at 10 percent and his ROI plummets to -0.78.
Finally, Mike Luzzi is winning at 14 percent overall with a ROI of -0.51, but only
at 6 percent on
the turf with a very low ROI of -1.65.
Over at Monmouth Park, which has one of the quickest-drying turf courses in
the country, Eddie Castro is the story. He’s winning with 18 percent of his overall
mounts with a ROI of -0.03 but 22 percent on the turf with a spectacular ROI of +3.01.
Jose Velez Jr. is winning with 12 percent of his overall mounts with a ROI of -0.31, but
he excels on the grass with 15 win rate and a ROI of -0.26. Chris
Decarlo has similar numbers, winning at 14 percent overall for a ROI of
-0.63 but at 19 percent on the turf with a ROI of +0.17.
On the downside at the Jersey Shore, Carlos Marquez Jr. is winning with 14
percent
of his overall mounts for a positive ROI of +0.23 but only 6 percent of his turf mounts
with a ROI of -0.93.