HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 28, 2009
by Dick Powell
The Travers S. (G1) will be run for the 140th time Saturday, and while this
year’s field of seven might be light on quantity, there’s more than enough
quality to make it an interesting race.
Unfortunately, this year’s renewal might be more known for who’s not here
than who did show up. It was announced earlier this week that Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia
d’Oro) would skip the Travers and run a week later against older males
in the Woodward (G1) going nine furlongs. And, on Wednesday, Mine That Bird
(Birdstone) was scoped and it was found that his recent throat surgery had not
healed completely, and he would also miss the Travers.
What was hoped to be a race that would attract all three Triple Crown race
winners now was down to the Belmont S. (G1) winner SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone)
against the top three from the Jim Dandy S. (G2) and QUALITY ROAD (Elusive
Quality).
To add some spice to the race, there is a good chance that the Saratoga area
could receive heavy rain on Saturday.
Here is how I look at this year’s Travers. Summer Bird ran a great race in
the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth earlier this month on a very wet track, but I wonder
what that effort might take out of him. He showed new-found speed that day, was
used hard to keep up, and I have to question whether the Haskell took something
out of him. The Haskell is a major race, and I can’t look at it as a prep race
for the Travers, so if Summer Bird emptied out in the homestretch at Monmouth,
how much energy will he have for Saturday?
In the past, I maintained that Summer Bird was a lightly-raced colt that was
still improving, but now he has as many lifetime starts as many in here. The
Haskell was a tough race and even though the Travers will have a better pace
scenario for him, I don’t like his chances on Saturday.
The Jim Dandy was an unusual race in the sense that the two horses that went
to the lead finished that way, as no one was able to make up any significant
ground. WARRIOR’S REWARD (Medaglia d’Oro) broke on top and set modest fractions
while being pressed by KENSEI (Mr. Greeley). Kensei was able to take over in the
homestretch and draw off to a 2 1/4-length win as Warrior’s Reward held on for
second.
For Kensei to win the Travers, he needs everything to go right, and I don’t
see it happening from the outside post position. His pedigree is suspect to get
10
furlongs, and I don’t see him improving off the Jim Dandy.
Warrior’s Reward has gotten better with time and distance and is now a force.
I love his pedigree to get 10 furlongs at Saratoga, but have to question his
Grade 1 stakes credentials. And, by the way, I do consider this Saturday’s
Travers a Grade 1 stakes, unlike the Whitney (G1) and Sword Dancer (G1) that I
wrote about last week. He was getting four pounds in the Jim Dandy and has to
pick up nine pounds instead of five. Even with Calvin Borel in the irons, I just
don’t see him.
CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) was the beaten favorite in the Jim Dandy, as
former rider Alan Garcia kept him three wide for most of the trip. His Late Pace
figure of 109 was excellent, but the speed never came back and he checked in
third. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has switched to Ramon Dominguez, and from post
2 he will be tough.
Nick Zito once ran one-two in the Travers when Birdstone beat
The Cliff’s Edge in a driving thunderstorm. Zito sends out OUR EDGE (The
Cliff’s Edge) on Saturday off three straight wins, including a seven-length romp
in the Barbaro S. (G3) last out at Delaware Park. He’s very fast and has
prospered since stretching out to two turns.
Finally, that brings us to Quality Road, track record-setting winner of the
Amsterdam S. (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) back in
March. My only problem with Quality Road, and it’s a big one, is can Todd Pletcher
get him ready for 10 furlongs in his second start in five months off a
6 1/2-furlong sprint prep? He was great at Gulfstream and should get a similar
track on Saturday here, but will he be fit enough to go farther than he has ever
been asked?
I love Quality Road’s pedigree being from the female family of Ajina, but I think this is an ambitious task for Team Pletcher to
attempt, and as the morning line favorite, I’ll take a pass.
When the post position draw was conducted on Wednesday and the past
performances came out, I came up with Charitable Man. He’ll get 10 furlongs,
he’ll handle a wet track and he has trained well over a track that he broke his
maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here last year in his career debut. From post 2 with
Dominguez, I think he gets a stalking trip while saving ground.
Charitable Man’s win in the Peter Pan S. (G2) was brilliant, and he followed it up
with a game effort in the Belmont S. Yes, his Jim Dandy should have
been better, but I think he improves off that race with better tactics. I know McLaughlin has been downplaying his chances, but the day I start taking
trainer comments literally is the day I stop betting horses. Charitable Man to
win the 140th running of the Travers.