TURF DIARY
NOVEMBER 4, 2009
For only the third time in Breeders’ Cup history, the reigning champions in
both the Turf (G1) and Mile (G1) are back to defend their crowns in the same
year. The results of those previous twin defenses may be instructive. In the
1993 championships at Santa Anita, Lure won his second straight Mile, but Fraise
failed to repeat in the Turf and wound up fourth. A dozen years later, in 2005
at Belmont, both defending champions were dethroned in their respective events
— Singletary finished eighth in the Mile and Better Talk Now checked in seventh
in the Turf.
As tiny as that sample is, it points to a larger historical pattern. It’s not
easy to win two Breeders’ Cup titles, but the Mile has yielded more two-time
winners than the Turf. While the electric Miesque (1987-88), the speedy Lure
(1992-93) and the stout-hearted Da Hoss (1996, 1998) all won two runnings of the
Mile, only the top-class High Chaparral (Ire) managed to capture two editions of
the Turf (2002-03). And famously, he had to share that second victory in a
dead-heat with Johar, who got up to join him at the wire.
These historical clues reinforce my instincts about our current defending
champions. Mile superstar GOLDIKOVA (Ire) (Anabaa) belongs on that elite list of
dual Breeders’ Cup winners, but does Turf hero CONDUIT (Ire) (Dalakhani)?
I’m not guilty of dithering over that particular question. I made a
crystal-clear decision some time ago about my top selections in the Turf, which
features a stellar cast of Europeans and a less persuasive group of Americans.
When it came to ranking the placed horses in the Mile, however, I must admit
that I’ve toyed with the order almost as much as the House and Senate leadership
have tinkered with the various health care bills.
So, with the usual disclaimer that I make no pretense of being a steely-eyed
handicapper, but rather an observer with transparent rooting interests, here are
my top three, and intriguing longshot, for the Turf and Mile.
TURF
1st — Juddmonte Farms’ homebred SPANISH MOON (El Prado [Ire]) has the
Spanish Moon flashed more raw talent as a juvenile than Conduit, winning his
The five-year-old burst onto the international scene in his reappearance on
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Rerouted to France, Spanish Moon captured both of his subsequent starts, the
Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (Fr-G1) in June and the Prix Foy (Fr-G2) in September.
That entitled him to be a serious player in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
(Fr-G1), but the Juddmonte brain trust decided to swerve Sea the Stars and keep
Spanish Moon fresh for a late autumn campaign. Interestingly, one previous Turf
winner, In the Wings (GB) (1990), had also landed the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud
and Prix Foy on the way to the Breeders’ Cup. He ran in the Arc, finishing
fourth, before heading to the Turf.
Spanish Moon’s form looks rock solid and stacks up tantalizingly well against
Conduit. He has defeated three-time Arc runner-up Youmzain (Sinndar) twice this
season, and last time out, he beat Vision d’Etat (Chichicastenango), who had in
turn handled subsequent King George runner-up Tartan Bearer (Spectrum).
Moreover, Spanish Moon has tactical speed, which should help him to get first
run on Conduit at Santa Anita, and he picks up a gifted rider in Kieren Fallon.
A victory by Spanish Moon would be satisfying on several levels — as the
belated fulfillment of his potential; as a tribute to his recently-deceased
sire, El Prado (Ire); and as a long overdue first Turf trophy for Juddmonte.
2nd — At her best, the four-year-old filly DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire])
could spoil the prospects for a Stoute exacta. Ironically, her sire, Singspiel
(Ire), was the bottom half of the Stoute exacta in the 1996 Turf. Singspiel was
the even-money favorite, but he was upstaged by his 13-1 stablemate, Pilsudski
(Ire). (Like Spanish Moon upstaging Conduit, perhaps?)
The John Gosden trainee may not have the cache of the first distaff winner of
the Turf, Pebbles (GB) (1985), but she has much more to recommend her than Miss
Alleged, who upset the 1991 Turf. Out of the first-rate Darara (Ire) (Top
Ville), from a terrific Aga Khan family, Dar Re Mi is tough as nails and excels
at the 1 1/2-mile distance.
Last year, Dar Re Mi had the misfortune of playing second fiddle to the
peerless Zarkava in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1), which Zarkava won in
stakes-record time. Prior to that, Dar Re Mi had finished runner-up to Lush
Lashes when she smashed the course record in the Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-G1) (held
at Newmarket in 2008). This season, Dar Re Mi has exposed the pretensions of the
two most hyped sophomore fillies in Europe, while spotting them significant
weight: she upended Oaks (Eng-G1) heroine Sariska (Pivotal) in the Yorkshire
Oaks (back at York this time) and beat French Oaks (Fr-G1) star Stacelita
(Monsun) fair and square in the Vermeille, only to be disqualified in a travesty
of justice.
Dar Re Mi is coming off a better-than-appears fifth in the Arc. As noted in
my last International Diary, she was up close in the main body of the field
throughout, threw down a bold challenge in the stretch before Sea the Stars
bolted clear, and was passed late by fourth-placer Conduit. Dar Re Mi figures to
stay on more strongly at Santa Anita than she did at Longchamp, and if she
doesn’t take top honors herself, she is likely to make the winner work for the
trophy. With the late-breaking news that Frankie Dettori will ride, Dar Re Mi
looks all the more appealing.
3rd — I may well be selling CONDUIT short here, and it won’t be a surprise if
he overturns my finely-reasoned speculation. Although he’s clearly better than
the past defending Turf champions who have flopped in their ensuing runs, I’m
not quite convinced that he measures up to High Chaparral.
Let’s compare their resumes: High Chaparral won the Racing Post Trophy
(Eng-G1) at two; swept the Derby and Irish Derby (Ire-G1) the following season;
at four, he added the 1 1/4-mile Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1) to his haul; and he
was twice third in the Arc. In contrast, Conduit was modest at two; began his
sophomore season in handicap company, progressing to take the St Leger (Eng-G1)
and Turf; was blown away by Sea the Stars and Rip Van Winkle (Ire) (Galileo
[Ire]) in the 1 1/4-mile Eclipse S. (Eng-G1) this summer; and relished the step
back up to 1 1/2 miles to garner the King George in solid if unspectacular
fashion.
Furthermore, I think that Conduit faces tougher European opposition this
time. Last year’s runner-up, Eagle Mountain (GB) (Rock of Gibraltar [Ire]), was
making his second start off a year-long layoff at a distance that may have been
a shade too far, and the fourth-place finisher was the one-paced Soldier of
Fortune (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]), who just didn’t strike me as a horse who’d be
suited by Santa Anita. Neither can hold a candle, in my view, to Spanish Moon or
Dar Re Mi.
Having stated the case for the prosecution, I am duty-bound to point out that
Conduit stands to move forward off his closing fourth in the Arc. He had not
raced since the King George, and only the rarest of horses is capable of winning
the Arc off that kind of layoff. The Arc may prove to be the ideal prep for the
Turf, and indeed, no fewer than six Turf winners came out of the Arc (seven if
you include Miss Alleged, who ran in the Arc two starts before her Turf score).
There is one way that Conduit does resemble High Chaparral: both were
arguably better suited to racing left-handed than right-handed. All four of
Conduit’s 2009 starts have come on right-handed courses, so he could improve
considerably going left-handed at Santa Anita.
Just two further thoughts, whose relevance is questionable but nevertheless
worth stating. First, Conduit was mildly colicky a few weeks ago, when rumors
were rife that he may miss the Turf, but Stoute quashed that gossip in short
order, and Conduit has reportedly been training sharply ever since. That’s a
non-issue at this point. The second matter is slightly more curious, not in and
of itself, but because of the timing: Ballymacoll Stud has just sold Conduit to
a Japanese stud farm. The sale makes perfect commercial sense, but why was it
finalized prior to the Turf? Is his market value at its height right now, when
he’s the raging favorite for the Turf, but may not be if he’s beaten?
Longshot — TELLING (A.P. Indy) came from out of the blue this campaign, but he
is a well-bred individual who began life with Darley, and is putting it all
together at the right time for trainer Steve Hobby. I think that he has not
gotten the credit he deserves for a convincing victory in the Sword Dancer
Invitational (G1) at Saratoga, where he raced within striking distance of a
ferocious pace but powered home strongly. His losses on either side of that 33-1
upset were both sneakily good. Telling finished fast for fifth in the 1 1/4-mile
Arlington H. (G3), beaten all of 1 1/2 lengths by Just as Well (A.P. Indy), who
went on to chase Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) in the Arlington Million (G1) and
then took the Northern Dancer Turf S. (Can-G1) via disqualification. As
discussed in my previous Turf Diary, Telling’s effort in the Joe Hirsch Turf
Classic Invitational (G1) was also encouraging. Unlike the lovable PRESIOUS
PASSION (Royal Anthem), who will attract some support but whom I just can’t
envision wiring a field of this stature, Telling should be completely overlooked
in the wagering and will be doing his best work in the final quarter-mile.
MILE
1st — Trainer Freddie Head has compared GOLDIKOVA favorably to Miesque, whom
In 2008, Goldikova brought compelling credentials to the Mile, having
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This year, with two glaring exceptions, Goldikova has been even more
dominating. Those two reverses should be disregarded: her 2009 debut is a total
throw-out since the Head yard was battling a bug at the time, and her narrow
loss in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1) last time out was better than it looks on
paper. Goldikova was dropping to about seven furlongs for the first time, broke
from a far outside post, forced a very fast pace while wide, sauntered to the
front on the bridle, got tired and was run down late. Unlike Goldikova, who
looked like the winner in the stretch, the early leader gave way badly and wound
up a long way back, underscoring what a breakneck tempo it was. The Foret would
be significant if Goldikova were trying one of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint races,
but it shouldn’t portend much for her back over a course and distance that she
relishes. Recall that the great Miesque herself entered both of her Breeders’
Cups off losses.
Over the summer, Goldikova looked sublime, as described at length in a few
International Diaries. After a cozy score in the Falmouth S. (Eng-G1), she
successfully defended her Rothschild title in grand style, skipping clear and
easing down late. Two weeks later, Goldikova throttled males in the Prix Jacques
le Marois (Fr-G1) by a dazzling six lengths, shattering the stakes record in one
of the continent’s most prestigious mile events. Since the bay appears to thrive
on racing, I suspect that Head prepped her in the Foret because it was closer to
the date of the Breeders’ Cup, even though the distance wasn’t ideal. If so,
then Goldikova should be sitting on a tremendous performance.
2nd — DELEGATOR (GB) (Dansili [GB]) has claims to be considered
best-of-the-rest, but only if he duplicates the early-season form he showed for
Brian Meehan, before he was purchased by Godolphin. An impressive winner of the
Craven S. (Eng-G3) in his sophomore bow, he battled with Sea the Stars in the
Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1), but was outstayed by that titan in the closing
stages and finished a gallant second. Delegator turned in another terrific
runner-up effort in the St. James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, where he
briefly threatened to upset Mastercraftsman (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), only to be
outstayed again in the final yards.
A clear pattern emerges: Delegator is capable of delivering a potent burst of
speed, but he can’t sustain it for long. Ironically, the fact that he had
traffic trouble in the Celebration Mile (Eng-G2) two back may have worked to his
benefit: when he finally broke free, he roared clear and won well from Mile
rival ZACINTO (GB) (Dansili [GB]). (Delegator may not keep that victory he
scored in his Godolphin debut, for he subsequently tested positive for a banned
substance.)
Delegator disappointed in his second start for Godolphin, folding to a tame
third behind Rip Van Winkle and a much-improved Zacinto in the Queen Elizabeth
II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot. Based on that effort, Zacinto appears to have
outstripped Delegator, but for one key fact: Santa Anita’s mile puts a premium
on speed, which is Delegator’s forte, unlike Ascot’s stiffer test that so
plainly suited Zacinto. Delegator will finally get an easy mile to play to his
strengths, instead of the courses that have been pushing him to the limit. If
he’s still at his best at this late stage of the season, Delegator figures to
sprint around the turn and charge home late.
3rd — I found it past my powers to try to separate the American-based
contingent, which boasts several smart late runners who are well qualified to
get up for a minor award. So I’m going in a different direction and tabbing the
game, genuine pace factor COWBOY CAL (Giant’s Causeway) to hold off the spirited
closers for third. I’ve always had a soft spot for the old Stonerside Stable
horses, and I was very high on Cowboy Cal in the wake of his devastating triumph
in the Laurel Futurity in 2007. His three-year-old season was interrupted in the
wake of a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby (G1), but he returned as
resilient as ever last fall.
It’s notable that when Robert and Janice McNair sold their bloodstock and
farm to Sheikh Mohammed, they retained Cowboy Cal for themselves, and he has
vindicated that decision. Things haven’t always panned out for him, and he has
been foiled by circumstances at times, but when he gets the right set-up, he is
a tenacious competitor. I have an inkling that the Mile is going to unfold well
for him. Cowboy Cal is better when he plays a stalking role, and he should have
a target here. Also, unlike a couple of his archrivals, COURT VISION (Gulch) and
JUSTENUFFHUMOR (Distorted Humor), who would arguably prefer a trifle longer
distance, the flat mile is ideal for Cowboy Cal. He’s a perfect three-for-three
at this trip on the turf, and he exits a victory in the Oak Tree Mile (G2) over
the course, an historically productive prep for the Mile.
Remember that last year, Stonerside-breds Raven’s Pass and Midshipman
(Unbridled’s Song) covered themselves in Breeders’ Cup glory for their new
connections. How appropriate, then, would it be for the McNairs to watch Cowboy
Cal do well for them here.
Longshot — This choice is either a lightning-bolt of insight, or a lunatic
delusion, but I can’t ignore Godolphin’s ostensible second-stringer GLADIATORUS
(Silic [Fr]). As anyone who saw his jaw-dropping romp in the Dubai Duty Free
(UAE-G1) can attest, he’s capable of running a world-class field off its
collective feet. Subsequently switched from Mubarak bin Shafya to Godolphin, he
was bitterly disappointing in his first three starts in the royal blue silks.
I’m not willing to condemn him for those efforts, or write him off as an
inflated Dubai wonder who was put in his place in Europe. In the middle of the
summer he had foot trouble that ruled him out of a projected tilt at the
Arlington Million, and it’s possible that he was only just rounding into form
when slaughtering a weak field in the Premio Vittorio di Capua (Ity-G1) in Milan
last time out. Gladiatorus may be in his element on a turning circuit like
Santa Anita, and I wouldn’t put it past him to go straight to the front and hold
on for a long way. A son of 1999 Mile hero Silic (Fr), Gladiatorus is inbred 3 x
3 to the influential Blushing Groom (Fr), and his second dam is champion and
Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) queen Al Bahathri.