HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 15, 2010
by Dick Powell
When it rains, it pours; but, not if you are using BRIS Ultimate Past
Performances.
Gulfstream Park had a nice day of sprint races affected by heavy rains last
Saturday, with two races taken off the turf and the entire card run over a very
sloppy track that got wetter, and more speed-favoring, as the day went on.
On rainy days like last Saturday at Gulfstream, I can’t imagine betting real
money without the Ultimate Past Performances since they contain
constantly-updated wet-track pedigree information that cannot be found anywhere
else.
In the 1ST race on Saturday, a maiden special weight affair for
three-year-olds at five furlongs that was taken off the turf, the easy winner by
6 1/2 lengths was MAJOR MOMENTUM (Speightstown). Even though he showed little in
two career starts, he had a superior wet-track pedigree being sired by
Speightstown (Gone West) out of a stakes-placed, stakes-producing dam that
produced multiple graded-stakes winning sprinter J Be K (Silver Deputy).
Because the Ultimate Past Performances provide you with detailed pedigree
information, it takes no time at all to look up Major Momentum’s sales catalog
page from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2008 since it already told
you that he sold for $225,000 at that sale and that his dam was stakes-placed
herself.
But on Saturday, probably the key piece of information available to you was
that Speightstown is producing an unbelievable 32 percent wet-track winning
percentage. Speightstown is not a good, wet-track sire; he’s a great wet-track
sire. And that’s with two full crops of horses to make it to the races with a
big enough sample of wet-track runners.
In the 4TH race, a one-mile main track event for three-year-olds, QUIET ALL
AMERICAN (Forest Camp) was a game winner by a neck after battling for the lead
most of the way at 11-1. After three starts where he really hadn’t shown much,
he moved way up on the sloppy track at Gulfstream which was no surprise based on
Forest Camp’s (Deputy Minister) record.
Forest Camp was a very fast horse that won the Del Mar Futurity (G2) in only
his second career start and then just missed in the Norfolk S. (G2) while
beating eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner Anees. He has had four full
crops to race and even though he has sired 11 stakes winners highlighted by
Timber Reserve (Forest Camp), winner of the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), he now
stands in South Korea.
But in his four crops of horses to race so far in North America, Forest Camp
has established himself as a superior wet-track sire by producing 22 percent
winners. He’s not one of the horses that comes to mind that you might think
would move up on wet tracks, but there it was in your Ultimate Past Performances
staring right at you.
Finally, in the 9TH race, 31-1 longshot RICHIEGIRLGONEWILD (Wildcat Heir)
went gate to wire to win the Old Hat S. (G3) for Larry Rivelli. From the first
crop of Wildcat Heir (Forest Wildcat), she was one of a record 39 first-crop
winners sired by the winner of the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1). Even
from this relatively small sample, Wildcat Heir is producing 30 percent wet
track winners, which puts him in the rarified air with Speightstown of wet-track
supremacy.
Speaking of Forest Camp, Gary Contessa sent out EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Forest
Camp) to win the 2ND race at Aqueduct on Saturday by 17 1/4 lengths and create a
buzz among bloodstock agents looking to purchase classic prospects for their
clients. Eightyfiveinafifty won so easily that with every length that he added
to his advantage, it gave the agents extra time to call Contessa to make a bid
on this exciting colt.
Third in a very key maiden race at Saratoga that was won by DUBLIN (Afleet
Alex), who won the Hopeful S. (G1) in his next start, Eightfiveinafifty was off
until Saturday due to bucked shins and a hock infection. A :59 five-furlong
workout on Monday indicated his readiness, and the money showed as he went off
at 2-5.
After a first quarter in :23.04, Jorge Chavez tried his best to restrain him
but after a half in :46.34, he gradually let him go and he increased his lead by
16 lengths in the stretch without any urging. His final time of 1:10.85 was
sensational and by far the fastest of the day.
Contessa, who sold National Pride (Macho Uno) and Peace Rules for
seven-figure profits early in their careers, would like to hold on to this one,
but it will be hard since there haven’t been many horses in this year’s class
that have generated this kind of excitement. He is expected to stay in New York
for now, with the February 6 Whirlaway S. and March 6 Gotham S. (G3) next on his
agenda. It shows how a good horse can come from anywhere, and if he catches a
wet track in any of these future starts, you’ve been warned about this son of
Forest Camp.