GLOBEFORM ARC BIOS
SEPTEMBER 28, 2010
Brisnet.com will be offering the Globeform Ratings & Analysis for this year’s
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) beginning September 30. The report will
include the popular Globeform ratings for the Arc and supporting stakes, as well
as in-depth analysis of each race at Longchamp on October 3.
Below is a sampling of the Globeform Analysis.
Prix de l’Arc contenders
by Geir Stabell
SARAFINA (Refuse to Bend [Ire]) seemed to have her limitations exposed in the Prix Vermeille (Fr-G1) in
September when she checked in third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths behind Midday (GB)
(Oasis Dream [GB]).
Normally, if you can’t win the Vermeille, you most certainly can’t win the Arc.
Take a look at the recordings again, however, before you write her off. She
overcame a wide draw to get a nice spot, then she was given a very gentle ride.
There is more to come from this filly, who was unraced at two and is open to
plenty of improvement.
Sarafina had won her three previous races, and produced a taking performance to
beat stable companion Rosanara (Sinndar) by 1 1/2 lengths in the Prix de Diane (Fr-G1)
(French
Oaks) over 10 1/2 furlongs at Chantilly in June (Rosanara has let the form down
since though). The Vermeille was Sarafina’s first start back, and she is likely
to keep on moving forward. Judged on what we have seen of her thus far, it is
reasonable to assume the she would have a much better chance against her own sex
in the 10-furlong Prix de l’Opera (Fr-G1), but her excellent trainer has his sights
firmly on the Arc. It’s hard to write her off though. Not least since trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has such a fine record with top fillies.
DUNCAN (Elusive Hour), getting away with soft fractions when setting the pace in the Prix
Foy (Fr-G2), was headed in that race about a furlong out but rallied to get up for
an upset win, beating the staying-on Japanese contender Nakayama Festa (Stay
Gold) by a half-length. Duncan had previously run a sound race, albeit trounced by the
winner, when second to Harbinger in the Hardwicke S. (Eng-G2) at Royal Ascot. He
is better than ever these days, but it is hard to see the John Gosden trainee making
much of an impact in the Arc.
The Foy was run at such a slow pace, and NAKAYAMA FESTA is a much more serious contender for the Arc. He was
closing in on Duncan at the end of the race and his best form in Japan reads
well; he gave the smart filly Buena Vista (Special Week) five pounds and a sound half-length beating in
the 11-furlong Takarazuka Kinen (Jpn-G1) at Hanshin in June. Buena Vista was coming
off a Group 1 win in Tokyo and she had been beaten just three-quarters of a length when second to Dar
Re Mi in the Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) at Meydan, where she beat Spanish Moon by a
head for second after finishing best of all.
A strong pace will suit Nakayama Festa so much better and he must be an
interesting each-way alternative for UK punters (best priced 33-1 after the
Foy). The son of Stay Gold won a big 12-furlong handicap in the spring and last
year he ran fourth in the Japanese Derby (Jpn-G1). He is not in the same class as El
Condor Pasa, who made Montjeu (Ire) pull out all the stops to win the Arc back in
1999, but — in all probability — he won’t have to be to finish in the top three
or four in this year’s edition. This is an open race and if he steps up a notch
or two from his prep run, Nakayama Festa will not go home empty handed.