HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 10, 2010
by Dick Powell
Saratoga and Del Mar are in the books and there were many promising juveniles
on display that should be heard from down the road.
In Wednesday’s Del Mar Futurity (G1), J P’S GUSTO (Successful Appeal)
dominated as the odds-on favorite. The winner of the Hollywood Juvenile
Championship (G3) and Best Pal S. (G2) already, he can run on or off the
pace and used his tactical speed to best advantage in the Futurity.
Breaking a bit awkwardly, Pat Valenzuela quickly got him into gear and was
able to keep Comma to the Top (Bwana Charlie) from getting over to the rail from
post 9. Those two dueled through sensible fractions of :22.72 and :45.46 and
hit the top of the stretch together. Valenzuela asked J P’s Gusto for run and
the response was immediate. They hit the furlong pole in 1:10.25 and continued
to widen his margin; winning by 6 1/2 lengths in the very good time of 1:22.95.
J P’s Gusto is bred for speed top and bottom and it will be interesting to
see if he can stretch out to two turns. He showed good late energy in the Best
Pal when he had a final BRIS Late Pace figure of 99 and this was while he was on the
lead. David Hofmans indicated after the race that the two-turn Norfolk S. (G1) would be his next engagement.
Jaycito (Victory Gallop) is still a maiden after two starts, but he is hard to
knock and his graduation should not be too far into the future. He gunned to the
front from post 1 after breaking a bit slow and then was run down at the wire
in good time. He drew the rail again in the Futurity but did not show any speed.
He broke in a bit at the start and was snatched up by Martin Garcia, who steered him
to the outside for the run down the backside.
Far back at the top of the stretch, Jaycito was at least seven wide turning for
home and rallied strongly to get up for second. Unlike the winner, Jaycito is
bred to run all day and has already shown that he can go fast early or come from
far back. He’ll be an interesting horse once he gets on dirt.
In Saturday’s Del Mar Debutante (G1), TELL A KELLY (Tapit) ran the identical
race that she ran when she broke her maiden. Last early, she broke her maiden
with ridiculous ease and came back to do it again in her stakes debut.
Last in the field of 10, she was still last after a half-mile but was
beginning to look for a gap to run through. Just like in her maiden, she ran between horses and, after weaving her way through traffic, arrived at the
top of the stretch in fourth place with the three in front of her in grave
danger. Tell a Kelly kicked in through the stretch and drew away to an easy 4
1/2-length score in the good time of 1:23.05.
Her sire Tapit (Pulpit) has been having a brilliant season at stud and Tell A
Kelly joins Stardom Bound and Careless Jewel as Grade 1 stakes-winning females that only got better with distance.
On Monday at Saratoga, the Hopeful (G1) was run for the 106th time and rarely has
a horse been as touted as much as BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (Officer) going into the
traditional end-of-meet feature. Three horses decided to take the easy way out
and raced at Monmouth in the Sapling S. (G3), so Boys at Tuscanova only had
to face three rivals.
Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. was beyond confident going into the race even though
his runner had not raced in 66 days. His workouts were supposedly brilliant and
Dutrow was raving about how well he was doing. When the gate opened, Stay
Thirsty (Bernardini) went to his knees but then, quickly recovered to go up
after the lead. Wine Police (Speightstown) did not challenge as expected so
2010’s leading rider, Johnny Velazquez, was able to make an easy lead and slow the
pace down. It didn’t matter.
Ramon Dominguez sat chilly aboard Boys at Tosconova through a half in :46.38.
Stay Thirsty was running well but visually, it looked like it was only a matter
of time before Dominguez pushed the button and the Hopeful would be over. The
pace picked up around the far turn with a third quarter in :24 seconds and
without any noticeable encouragement from Dominguez, Boys at Tosconova took the
lead and cruised to an easy 1 3/4-length victory over Stay Thirsty. His final
time was 1:23.27 and his final furlong of :12.89 was very good considering how
slow the Saratoga main track was this year in the homestretch.
After the race, Dutrow indicated that he would send Boys at Tosconova
straight to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) without a race in between. With his
ability to relax and stalk, two turns should be no problem. I’m not crazy about
his pedigree for 10 furlongs but that is a subject for next year, not now.
Stay Thirsty was very impressive and should get a lot better. He recovered
from an awkward start, was able to cruise along on the lead, and show good
energy when challenged. He’s bred to run a lot farther and his pedigree
indicates that two turns and beyond will be right up his alley.
The Spinaway (G1) was run for the 119th time on Sunday and while we may not have
seen any Ruffian’s in this year’s edition, it was a interesting race to watch.
Sky Hosoya (Bluegrass Cat) went right to the front out of the gate through a
first quarter in a fast :21.89. Channing Hill quickly sent Alienation (Rock Hard
Ten) right after her and the two dueled through a half in :44.74. For a moment, it
looked like Alienation was going to draw off to an easy victory as Sky Hosoya
tired and she opened up a clear lead.
But, her early efforts began to take their toll and Garrett Gomez had R HEAT
LIGHTNING (Trippi) rallying strongly on the outside. Alienation still had the
lead with a furlong to go but there was no denying R Heat Lightning, one of four
horses trained by Todd Pletcher, and she surged to a four-length victory.
Alienation held on for second and with different riding tactics should be a lot
tougher next time out. They covered the final furlong in :14.13 with the final
time of 1:25.23 being one of the slowest since the race was extended to seven
furlongs in 1994.