KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 15, 2011
by James Scully
UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) went down to defeat in Saturday’s Wood Memorial
(G1), crushing the sprits of both admirers and detractors with his third-place
finish.
Last year’s invincible superstar, who fans hoped would snap a 32-year Triple
Crown drought, was nowhere to be seen as Uncle Mo looked like a terrible
prospect for the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1) distance. And bettors licking
their chops to play against him at short odds in the Derby watched in disgust as
Uncle Mo probably lost his grip on the favorite’s mantle, weakening against a
suspect field of rivals in his first start at 1 1/8 miles.
All hope isn’t lost for Uncle Mo. Trainer Todd Pletcher thought he could take
it easy with him, but the plan backfired Saturday. Pletcher scrapped the 1
1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in favor of the one-turn Timely Writer S. at
Gulfstream Park, which pitted Uncle Mo against a short field of entry-level
allowance rivals, and the colt gained little fitness from the paid workout.
Uncle Mo came up short in the Wood, but he remains eligible to rebound at
Churchill Downs.
As a result of his Wood flop, Uncle Mo came back to the pack and the Kentucky
Derby looks wide open. It’s not an intimidating group at the top and once you
get past DIALED IN (Mineshaft), THE FACTOR (War Front) and Uncle Mo, there’s
little separation among the rest of the contenders.
One thing lacking from the final round of prep races is a fast horse. Dialed
In has been roundly criticized for his winning time in the Florida Derby (G1),
nearly a full second slower than the filly R Heat Lightning (Trippi) a day
earlier, but his 101 BRIS Speed rating is better than the figures earned in the
Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2), Illinois Derby
(G3), Spiral (G3) and Sunland Derby (G3). It’s been a dismal year so far in
terms of Speed numbers.
The Factor has been an exception, registering BRIS Speed ratings of 106
(twice) and 104 in his last three starts, and he’ll make his first attempt at
nine furlongs in Saturday’s $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1). The closing-day
feature at Oaklawn Park shares the spotlight with the $750,000 Blue Grass S.
(G1), which features Derby contender SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway) against a mostly
turf-oriented field on the Polytrack at Keeneland.
The Derby is three weeks from Saturday.
Wood Memorial
Uncle Mo was being chased by a couple of overmatched longshots during the
opening six furlongs of the Wood, and his inability to shake loose from those
spent rivals leaving the far turn spelled doom for his chances in the stretch.
He was tiring before the final furlong and I think his lack of fitness was more
to blame than the 1 1/8-mile distance.
That was the facet of his victory in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1) that was so impressive, his acceleration into the stretch. I could envision
the long-striding colt carrying a dynamic turn of foot off the far turn that
puts away the Kentucky Derby by midstretch, but the Wood raised serious concerns
about whether he’s continued to improve as a three-year-old.
Pletcher’s pampered him so much this year that the Wood Memorial served as
our only real gauge, and it wasn’t flattering. Negative rumors about Uncle Mo’s
health have circulated in the aftermath and his connections are blaming the
defeat on a gastro infection that isn’t supposed to cost him any serious
training time.
The loss could still turn out to be a blessing. Pletcher doesn’t like the
five-week spacing of the Triple Crown races — he prefers much more time between
starts — and saving something for the Preakness (G1) and Belmont S. (G1)
probably weighed heavily into his planning, barring some health concern that
hasn’t been revealed. Pletcher can no longer afford to coddle the two-year-old
champion in the weeks leading up to the Derby — it’s now a matter of redemption
for the criticized handler — and if there’s something wrong physically, Uncle
Mo won’t make it to the starting gate.
Uncle Mo was much faster than the competition last year, netting a 110 BRIS Speed
rating in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and major improvement in his third start
off a four-month layoff is the goal. Distance has always been the biggest
perceived liability for the son of Indian Charlie, but having Arch as his
broodmare sire helps Uncle Mo’s chances.
Whether he can rise back up remains uncertain, but I’m not giving up on Uncle
Mo yet.
TOBY’S CORNER (Bellamy Road) punched his Derby ticket with a neck victory.
Eighth of nine runners after three-quarters of a mile, the one-run closer had to
dodge traffic, and was
still four lengths back in sixth with only a furlong left to run. He rallied
determinedly between rivals to get up in time, generating a 105 BRIS Late Pace
rating for his finish.
Patrons at Laurel Park had a couple of opportunities to see him this winter,
as Toby’s Corner broke his maiden by 10 3/4 lengths in late November before
recording a 1 1/4-length decision over allowance/optional claiming foes on
January 12. The Graham Motion-trained colt finished fast to win going away by
two lengths in his stakes debut, the February 5 Whirlaway S., and registered a
career-best 103 BRIS Speed rating on the sloppy inner track at Aqueduct.
Toby’s Corner lost momentum with a non-threatening third behind Stay Thirsty
(Bernardini) in the March 5 Gotham S. (G3), but improved significantly in the
Wood. However, his 97 Speed rating was light and Toby’s Corner’s ability to take
another jump forward in the Derby is highly questionable. He would move up on a
wet track at Churchill Downs.
Runner-up ARTHUR’S TALE (Bernardini) exited the Wood with an injury and has
been sidelined.
Santa Anita Derby
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (War Chant) wasn’t on the Kentucky Derby radar screen
following his maiden win on March 20, but the bay colt jumped into the fray with
an upset in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby. The top two contenders, Premier
Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus) and JAYCITO (Victory Gallop), were both scratched
from the 1 1/8-mile event, and Midnight Interlude was sent off as the 13-1
seventh choice among nine contestants.
He was wide entering the first turn and continued to travel well off the rail
down the backstretch, stalking COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie) in fourth. When
jockey Victor Espinoza asked for run entering the stretch, Midnight Interlude
went after Comma to the Top. That rival tried vainly to stop him, drifting out
repeatedly and forcing Midnight Interlude to briefly steady in midstretch, but
the recent maiden winner would not be denied, getting up to win by a neck.
Midnight Interlude’s 98 BRIS Speed rating was easily a career best and he
owns plenty of pedigree for 10 furlongs. Trainer Bob Baffert, a three-time
Kentucky Derby winner, is another plus, but Midnight Interlude beat a pretty
soft group of rivals Saturday and will be up against it next time. He didn’t
make his career debut until January 29, and no horse unraced as a juvenile has won the Derby
since Apollo in 1882. Midnight Interlude doesn’t look fast enough to break that
historic trend.
Comma to the Top ended 2010 on a high note, reeling off five straight wins,
including the CashCall Futurity (G1), but he’s now dropped three straight as a
three-year-old. And nine furlongs took a serious toll on Saturday as he was out
of gas in deep stretch. He’s back under consideration for the Derby, but his
breeding and Speed ratings offer little hope.
Premier Pegasus is out of Derby consideration with an injury, but the foot
issue that kept Jaycito out of the Santa Anita Derby has improved, according to
Baffert. Jaycito will make his final prep in the April 23 Lexington S. (G2) at
Keeneland.
Illinois Derby
Illinois Derby (G3) winner JOE VANN (Silver Deputy) isn’t nominated to the
Triple Crown and has no chance of making the Derby field. Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
winner WATCH ME GO (West Acre) was exposed in his first start outside of
Florida, struggling home a disappointing sixth as the 2-1 favorite, but he has
the graded earnings ($235,500) to run despite the discouraging performance at
Hawthorne.
Previews
I like speed in both major preps this Saturday.
The Factor isn’t difficult to come up with following his runaway victory in
the March 19 Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn, but the Arkansas Derby sets up
differently with a couple of nice colts from the Pletcher stable, BRETHREN
(Distorted Humor) and DANCE CITY (City Zip), bringing quality speed to the
equation. The Factor didn’t face any early pressure in the Rebel.
I thought it was an advantage for him to draw post 3, one spot inside of
Brethren with Dance City in post 9, and The Factor will get to the rail with
Martin Garcia and attempt to slow down the pace.
If the speed falters, SWAY AWAY (Afleet Alex) and ELITE ALEX (Afleet Alex)
are possible beneficiaries, each sporting first-time blinkers.
I didn’t like Sway Away at short odds (9-5) in the Rebel, but he’ll offer
much better value this time around and trainer Jeff Bonde’s decision to keep him
at Oaklawn in the interim, with a pair of swift works over the track, looks wise
to me. I’m expecting a much-improved performance.
Elite Alex found his best stride too late in a paceless Louisiana Derby (G2)
last time, closing for fourth, but the maiden winner should receive a more
favorable set-up as well as a ground-saving trip from post 2. He can rally into
the frame with Calvin Borel.
The Blue Grass will feature a field of 12 highlighted by Kentucky Jockey Club
(G2) winner Santiva. A good second to Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) in the
February 19 Risen Star S. (G2), Santiva ran well in his lone start on Polytrack,
rallying for runner-up honors in October’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) following
a troubled start. The Eddie Kenneally-trained colt is a very logical top choice,
but I’ll tab the front-running JOES BLAZING AARON (Graeme Hall) for an upset.
Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, Joes Blazing Aaron captured a $50,000
turf claiming event at Gulfstream Park before recording a wire-to-wire victory
in the grassy Palm Beach S. (G3) on March 12. He’ll make his first start for
trainer Mike Maker on Saturday.
Jockey Garrett Gomez has already piloted a pair of wire-to-wire winners at
Keeneland and speed is dangerous on the Polytrack, with Lilacs and Lace (Flower
Alley) wiring the Ashland (G1) at 48-1 last weekend. I don’t see any other
legitimate speed in the Blue Grass field.
Enjoy the racing.