Broker powers up for Santa Anita Derby; Flashback to be
early favorite
Power Broker, one of three likely starters for Bob Baffert in Saturday’s
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, worked four furlongs in company Sunday morning in :47
2/5 for the West Coast’s major stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby on May 4.
Martin Garcia was aboard the Pulpit colt, who tied for the fourth-fastest
work at the distance on Santa Anita’s fast main track. Workmate Bank the Eight
was clocked in :47 4/5.
The Santa Anita Derby will be Power Broker’s first race since the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last November 3, in which the Gary and Mary West
colorbearer finished fifth behind eventual champion two-year-old Shanghai Bobby.
“The workout was very nice,” Baffert said. “I got him going out (five
furlongs) in :59 4/5.
“He hasn’t lost any of his conditioning, because he really hasn’t been away,”
the Hall of Famer noted. “He’s just been away from the action, but he has a
really good foundation on him. The Breeders’ Cup race was a disaster. I gave
Bejarano bad instructions.”
That could change come Saturday, since Bejarano is again named to ride the
chestnut colt he has ridden in each of his five starts, breaking his maiden in
the Grade 1 FrontRunner last September 29 before disappointing as the 2-1 second
choice in the Juvenile.
One of Baffert’s other Santa Anita Derby contenders, favored Flashback, is
scheduled to work Monday. Also owned by the Wests, Flashback suffered his first
defeat when he finished second as the even-money favorite in the Grade 2 San
Felipe Stakes on March 9.
Super Ninety Nine, winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on a sloppy Oaklawn
Park surface February 18, is the third probable Baffert entrant, hoping to
rebound from a fifth-place finish as the 6-5 favorite in the Grade 2 Rebel
Stakes on March 16.
Baffert has won the Santa Anita Derby six times, most recently with Midnight
Interlude in 2011. Nine Santa Anita Derby winners have gone on to win the Run
for the Roses, including I’ll Have Another last year.
Here are the probables for the Santa Anita Derby, listed with their riders:
Flashback, Garrett Gomez; Hear the Ghost, Corey Nakatani; Goldencents, Kevin
Krigger; Super Ninety Nine, Garcia; Power Broker, Bejarano; Tiz a Minister, Joe
Talamo; Storm Fighter, Gary Stevens; and Dirty Swagg, Tyler Baze.
Flashback will be the favorite on Jon White’s Santa Anita Derby morning line
when those odds are issued following Wednesday’s draw for post positions.
“As soon as Hear the Ghost won the San Felipe, I immediately started to think
about the morning line for the Santa Anita Derby,” White said. “And my initial
thought was, ‘Well, it looks like Hear the Ghost is probably going to be the
Santa Anita Derby favorite.’
“But as I monitored the reaction to the San Felipe in the days following that
race, a lot of people all over the country talked about how well they thought
Flashback ran in the San Felipe to lose by only a half-length after getting
involved in such a fierce pace duel with Goldencents.
“The reaction to Flashback’s San Felipe performance, coupled with the belief
expressed by many people that Hear the Ghost won partly because he was able to
benefit from a pace meltdown, swayed me to think there is a strong probability
Flashback is going to be the favorite when they exit the starting gate for the
Santa Anita Derby.
“But I also expect Flashback and Hear the Ghost to be pretty close in the
betting. Keep in mind that in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool,
Flashback’s price was 15-1 and Hear the Ghost also was 15-1. Goldencents was
49-1.”
White said another factor in deciding to make Flashback the Santa Anita Derby
morning line favorite is the strong backing he has received in each of his
races.
“Flashback has been a heavy favorite in all three of his races so far,” said
White, who again will be making the official morning lines for all of this
year’s Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita in November. “Flashback was even money
in his career debut, 1-2 when he won the Lewis and even-money again in the San
Felipe.
“Hear the Ghost has never been the favorite in his three races. He was 16-1
in his career debut, 7-2 when he ran second in the San Pedro and 5-1 when he won
the San Felipe.
“In terms of the Santa Anita Derby, I think it’s kind of a tricky call as to
just how strongly Flashback is going to get bet,” White continued. “On the one
hand, he has yet to be higher than even money. Based on that, I wouldn’t be
surprised to see him start at somewhere around even money in the Santa Anita
Derby.
“On the other hand, Flashback did get beat last time and he has yet to earn a
big Beyer Speed Figure. His top Beyer has been only a 93. A lot of bettors who
emphasize Beyer Speed Figures, Thoro-Graph figures or Ragozin figures probably
are not going to be betting on Flashback, especially since he will be lower than
2-1. That’s why I am not inclined to make Flashback as low as even-money or 6-5
for the Santa Anita Derby.
“All things considered, it seems to me the proper morning line price on
Flashback is something lower than 2-1 but higher than 6-5. Unless there are any
changes with respect to the currently anticipated Santa Anita Derby field of
eight, I am thinking 9-5 for Flashback’s morning line price, with Hear the Ghost
5-2.”
There will be a $750,000 guaranteed Late Pick 4 on Santa Anita Derby Day;
fans at Santa Anita will be offered a free Santa Anita Derby T-shirt with paid
admission, while supplies last; KROQ presents Iration in concert; and there will
be more than 50 microbrew/craft beer vendors, in addition to Premium Food
Trucks.
Bet Horseracing Free Online at TwinSpires.com