KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
FEBRUARY 27, 2014
by James Scully
Wildcat Red and Intense Holiday guaranteed themselves a spot in the Kentucky
Wildcat Red benefited from a speed-friendly track at Gulfstream Park, dueling
Gulfstream Park also featured a salty allowance field on the Fountain of
The Road to the Kentucky Derby returns to the Aqueduct this Saturday for the
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Fountain of Youth
Wildcat Red and General a Rod went after it in a fierce duel and no one
should question their moxie. They hooked up in a similar fashion on January 1,
battling on the front end in the one-turn Gulfstream Park Derby before being
separated by a head on the wire, and Wildcat Red was able to exact a measure of
revenge after coming up a little short in their prior engagement.
They both received a 100 BRIS Speed rating in the Fountain of Youth — the
top number from a Kentucky Derby prep race this year — but I won’t put too much
stock into their performances given the way the track was playing.
The speed-biased surface proved to be an enormous advantage as Wildcat Red
and General a Rod locked horns from the start, contesting fast splits of :23,
:46 1/5 and 1:10 with no adverse effects as they maintained a cushion through
the short stretch run (Gulfstream uses the first finish line in 1 1/16-mile
races). They could get another biased track in the March 29 Florida Derby that
helps their chances, but longer distances represent a severe challenge. I can’t
envision either being a legitimate contender at 1 1/4 miles this spring.
Top Billing couldn’t catch the top two, but a third-place finish doesn’t hurt
his Kentucky Derby chances. Out of an A.P. Indy mare, the well-bred Curlin colt
appears well-suited for 1 1/4 miles — it’s just a matter of ability. And I
thought the Fountain of Youth was a perfect race for him to build upon.
Making his stakes debut and fourth career start for trainer Shug McGaughey,
the chestnut was last of 12 after the opening quarter-mile. Top Billing launched
an eye-catching move on the far turn and continued to make up ground in the
stretch before coming up two lengths short, netting a career-best 98 BRIS Speed
while nearly five lengths clear of fourth.
Top Billing weaved his way adeptly through traffic in a large field, netting
his fourth consecutive triple-digit BRIS Late Pace rating, and the powerful late
runner has a boatload of speed-based horses pointing toward this year’s Kentucky
Derby. He just needs to keep moving forward in his final prep race.
Risen Star
Intense Holiday shipped from South Florida to Fair Grounds and delivered the
performance of his career in the Risen Star, making a serious impact for the
first time since breaking his maiden five starts previously. The Pletcher charge
rated in midpack during the opening stages and kicked it into high gear upon
reaching the stretch drive, closing with a rush in the final furlong.
A non-threatening third behind Cairo Prince in the January 25 Holy Bull,
Intense Holiday was fortunate to get away from Gulfstream Park with his running
style. He picked up the services of Mike Smith and registered a career-best 99
Speed rating in the Risen Star, earning a 108 Late Pace rating as well after the
determined finish.
The Risen Star appeared to feature plenty of pace on paper but didn’t develop
that way. Albano surprisingly got away with moderate factions of :24 1/5. :48
and 1:13 while unopposed on the lead, and it turned out to be a tough beat for
the half-brother to Grade 2 winner Mark Valeski. Jockey Kerwin Clark expressed
his disappointment after losing by a nose aboard the Larry Jones-trained colt.
“I thought I was home at the sixteenths (pole),” Clark said. “(Albano) was
still running. I looked over inside the eighth pole and didn’t see anyone
coming. I can’t believe that horse came and got us, to be honest, because my
horse never stopped one bit.”
It was a 5 1/2-length gap between second and third. Abano can’t be counted
out from consideration in the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby on March 29, but he
probably doesn’t want any part of classic distances with his breeding.
A son of Harlan’s Holiday, Intense Holiday has the breeding on both sides for
the Kentucky Derby and established himself as a viable contender in the Risen
Star. The grinder still has something to prove from a class standpoint, but he
can continue to enhance his credentials in the Louisiana Derby.
Gulfstream allowance
After overcoming a slow start in an impressive maiden victory, Constitution
continued to perform like a colt with a bright future on the Fountain of Youth
undercard, posting a 3 1/4-length victory over a deep group of allowance
challengers at 1 1/16 miles.
Javier Castellano put the Pletcher colt on the best part of the track — the
front end — and Constitution was never seriously threatened leading wire to
wire in his two-turn debut, netting a 98 Speed rating. The talented son of Tapit
still has enough time to receive two stakes starts prior to the Kentucky Derby,
but we’ll see what happens.
Constitution, who didn’t make his career debut until January 11, lacks
seasoning and will be attempting to buck a significant trend — Apollo is the
last unraced two-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby in 1882.
Last year, Verrazano didn’t make his career debut until January and raced
four times, including two stakes attempts, before an unplaced effort as one of
the favorites at Churchill Downs. But the same strategy nearly paid off the year
before with Bodemeister, who finished second to I’ll Have Another.
Constitution will have no room for error if his connections put all their
eggs in one basket, trying to gain the necessary points for the Kentucky Derby
in a single prep race. He figures to take plenty of action regardless.
Tonalist, who rallied from off the pace in his first two starts, was taken
out of his element last Saturday, forced to chase Constitution in second, and
came under a full drive midway on the far turn as jockey Joe Bravo tried to reel
in the loose-on-the-lead leader. The strategy didn’t work, but the Christophe
Clement runner kept trying hard all the way to the wire, finishing 2 1/4 lengths
clear of third.
I was impressed by his four-length maiden win going nine furlongs earlier in
the meet and still hold Tonalist in high regard — the Tapit colt is out of a
Pleasant Colony mare and looks like a natural for longer distances. He should be
an extremely live contender in his stakes debut.
Mexikoma is another one to watch from this race. A Delaware Park maiden
winner two starts previously, the Rick Mettee-conditioned colt was making his
first appearance since an eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He dropped back
during the early stages Saturday, racing last among 10 three-year-olds down the
backstretch, and closed ground stoutly from his unenviable position, rolling
past rivals in the stretch to be a fast-closing third.
Given the way the track was playing, Maxikoma turned in a huge performance.
And don’t be surprised to see him improve significantly off the comebacker.
Kentucky Derby Top 10
- Top Billing — Recorded an excellent third after breaking from
post 12 in Fountain of Youth; he’s a formidable late presence. - Cairo Prince — Holy Bull romper has never run a bad race in four
career starts; Florida Derby is next. - Honor Code — A.P. Indy colt is back on track for McGaughey,
posting three recent works; excited to see him return in the 3/15 Rebel. - Strong Mandate — Never found a rhythm but finished a good second
in Southwest after troubled trip; capable of more for Lukas. - Candy Boy — Captured the Lewis with complete authority; Sadler
charge heading to Santa Anita Derby next. - Bayern — Inexperienced colt could be any kind; hope Baffert gets
two preps into lightly-raced colt. - Intense Holiday — Displayed a strong finishing kick to get the
money in Risen Star; rates as an up-and-comer for Pletcher. - Conquest Titan — Holy Bull runner-up will head to the 3/8 Tampa
Bay Derby for Casse. - Tapiture — Asmussen trainee captured Southwest by open lengths
and is a Churchill Downs stakes winner. - Samraat — New York-bred colt exits sharp victory in Withers and
like seeing Violette bring him back for the Gotham.