With just over two months remaining until the postponed Kentucky Derby is finally run, bettors have concluded they’ve seen enough to settle on an individual horse as the favorite to win the Sept. 5 classic.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5 closed on Sunday with Tiz the Law favored at 2.20-1. Runaway winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1), the three-time Grade 1 winner has compiled such an imposing resume that he managed to overshadow even the popular “All Other 3-Year-Olds” option, the favorite in the first four future wager pools.
Trained by Barclay Tagg for Sackatoga Stable, Tiz the Law is expected to run once more before the first Saturday in September, with the Aug. 8 Travers (G1) at Saratoga looming as his final prep for the Run for the Roses.
The improving Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Honor A. P. was also popular in the wagering, closing as the second choice at 6-1. With the uncertainty of winter and spring in the rearview mirror, bettors were keen to embrace proven form over untapped potential and allowed the All Other 3-Year-Olds option to close at 8-1.
Horses trained by five-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert unsurprisingly found plenty of supporters. Santa Anita Derby runner-up Authentic settled as the fourth choice at 11-1, followed by impressive maiden winners Uncle Chuck (13-1) and Cezanne (19-1), along with Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and Bob Lewis (G3) victor Thousand Words (47-1). Slipping in between Uncle Chuck and Cezanne was the undefeated Japanese sensation Cafe Pharoah (14-1), whose Kentucky Derby berth is virtually assured thanks to eye-catching victories in the Hyacinth and Unicorn (G3) on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Rounding out the wagering options were Art Collector (20-1), Dr Post (20-1), All Other 3-Year Old Fillies (24-1), Max Player (24-1), King Guillermo (29-1), Enforceable (46-1), Basin (53-1), Ete Indien (53-1), Creed (54-1), Mystic Guide (54-1), Pneumatic (56-1), Ny Traffic (57-1), Man in the Can (69-1), Money Moves (75-1), Mr. Big News (78-1), and Rushie (104-1).
A total of $337,606.74 was wagered in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 5, including $117,661.17 in exacta tickets. (Click here for complete details of the Win pool and Exacta probables.)
Two additional future wager pools will be conducted during the coming weeks; Pool 6 is scheduled for July 17-19, while Pool 7 will take place Aug. 7-9.
| Horse Name | ODDS | Gross Win Pool | |
| 1 | Art Collector | 20-1 | 8,299.89 |
| 2 | Authentic | 11-1 | 14,021.87 |
| 3 | Basin | 53-1 | 3,338.66 |
| 4 | Cafe Pharoah | 14-1 | 11,400.22 |
| 5 | Cezanne | 19-1 | 9,055.66 |
| 6 | Creed | 54-1 | 3,280.52 |
| 7 | Dr Post | 20-1 | 8,258.10 |
| 8 | Enforceable | 46-1 | 3,791.37 |
| 9 | Ete Indien | 53-1 | 3,314.60 |
| 10 | Honor A. P. | 6-1 | 24,676.74 |
| 11 | King Guillermo | 29-1 | 6,040.11 |
| 12 | Man in the Can | 69-1 | 2,580.28 |
| 13 | Max Player | 24-1 | 7,193.57 |
| 14 | Money Moves | 75-1 | 2,366.74 |
| 15 | Mr. Big News | 78-1 | 2,287.22 |
| 16 | Mystic Guide | 54-1 | 3,244.30 |
| 17 | Ny Traffic | 57-1 | 3,099.56 |
| 18 | Pneumatic | 56-1 | 3,170.10 |
| 19 | Rushie | 99-1 | 1,722.57 |
| 20 | Thousand Words | 47-1 | 3,754.62 |
| 21 | Tiz the Law | 2-1 | 56,170.12 |
| 22 | Uncle Chuck | 13-1 | 12,183.80 |
| 23 | All Other 3 Year Old Fillies | 24-1 | 7,200.14 |
| 24 | All Other 3 Year Olds | 8-1 | 19,494.81 |
Cafe Pharoah has broken his maiden in a race restricted to first-time starters, a stakes promoted to listed for the occasion in which the other runners were maidens to winners of two with only one horse who had previously run in stakes company, and this year the Unicorn, a Grade 3 with a reduced purse. The original purse structure was designed to start purses of graded races at U.S. $1 million although currency changes have lowered that about 10%.
He won them in a division, dirt racing, which is pretty much despised in Japan. Cafe Pharoah did not make it onto the year-end rankings at two. (The Japanese rank two-year-olds all together and don’t separate them into dirt and turf runners.) The highest-ranked dirt 2-year-old was 10th.
Our best bet for seeing a competitive Japanese horse in the Derby is to scrap this ill-conceived and ill-received “Road to the Derby” and court the horses that win the Grade Ones but are versatile enough to run on dirt.