Oaklawn Circles & Squares Analysis for March 12

Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 12 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.

RACE 4

#5 ALL SHACKED UP has some upside as he makes his third start of the meet and return to a sprint distance. He ran a competitive race coming off the bench (128-day layoff) for Hartman on January 24th and seemed to be “given” the mile race as a conditioning type run on February 11th. All Shacked Up lacked stick to hold the route of ground, though is given extra credit with the distance while chasing a very fast (VF O4S RaceShape) before losing ground. That pair of starter allowance races this season should have him fit and in position to compete running for a tag this afternoon.

#9 FIREHORN at a price, should be kept on the radar as well returning here for Morse. Firehorn was scratched out of a similar claiming event at the end of February, perhaps needing an extra work after the track closure due to the weather coming back from the layoff. His form here at Oaklawn Park is a bit stronger than the 0-for-11 record indicates on paper. Those races are shown in OptixGRID below filtering his Oaklawn Park sprints. Those races in terms of OptixFIG fit consistently within RANGE for today’s event. His more current form is not nearly as “strong” however some excuses can be made for his last starts between regression on July 3rd at Ellis Park which were followed up by route races and layoff lines. If Morse has him ready and capable to get back to his prior Oaklawn form, he fits right in with today’s field.

OptixGRID Race 4 — OptixGRID for Race 4 on March 12

OptixPLOT Race 4 — OptixPLOT for Race 4 on March 12

RACE 6

#8 SEKANI‘s connections will wheel her right back from the Downthedustyroad Stakes just 12-days ago and reason to expect more from her and improve off that 5th place finish given the trip that afternoon. Heading into that stakes race, she was projected to show more speed making her second start of the meet coming out of the open company allowance race, a likely PREP (OptixNOTES) for this season and the statebred company. She was not asked to show speed (TACTIC-) and forced to rate inside, slightly against the outside flow track profile. Her trouble did not end there as she lacked ROOM when needed and cost her overall a better position if not more competitive for the win. She is shown on OptixPLOT as a Quad II Square and with the EP RunStyle is capable to take up a front running role if allowed to do so here.

RACE 7

#1 JLOHR JAN is not the most reliable type though has consistently run some of the faster, higher OptixFIG numbers in the field and could be the right time to catch her at a price. She will make her second start of the meet and for trainer McKnight, a high percentage barn that started off the meet slower than in previous seasons. She has some upside landing here out of the maiden claiming race in the mud back on February 28th. The visuals suggested some upside potential and should find this race shape favorable to her preferred tracking “P” RunStyle – Quad II Surface/Distance. Both #4 QUEEN’S GIFT and #5 SHASTALOO project to be forwardly placed, Quad I/III, and lack value here in their morning line assignment given the distance and stamina test today. #6 MAKING PROGRESS figures to land in a similar off-the-pace trip and more “obvious” off her recent races finishing in the money. With a similar trip projected Jlohr Jan should offer a higher number and based on the Plot capable to get first run.

RACE 8

#8 LAY M OUT finds a Contentious (Sun) PlotFit and capable to find the right race shape and move forward making her second start of the meet for Morse. She ran at this starter allowance condition on January 30^th and overall a decent effort (C+ OptixGRADE) with the TRAFFIC trip. The Sun Contention was in play that afternoon, however the lower 10 SpeedRate left her compromised with minimal change in running order throughout. Lay M Out was positioned much deeper in Quad IV that afternoon than she is today with the Square tracking closer to the Quad II line. #6 JUST FLY is in a similar spot on the Plot, however, is shown as an EP RunStyle and based on her more competitive races to date prefers running closer to the pace – not as true to the Plot position as Lay M Out.