Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 13 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 5 – AZERI S. (G2)
The 2020 Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner, #5 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL will make her seasonal return this afternoon and projects off the form last season to be favored here today. The opportunity with the timing as well as supporting data checking in with OptixPLOT could see her as a soft favorite, and with a viable alternative in the field, she is worth taking on here in that role.
#1 ENVOUTANTE has legit class and tough to ignore her position right in the center of the Plot as a tracking Large Square. Her OptixFIG consistently stack up on the higher side of RANGE, and the B+ in the Falls City S. (G2) to close out 2020 jumps off the page. Envoutante will also return from a layoff this afternoon and looks pointed to run in this race by the connections and trainer Ken McPeek. She has been breezing forwardly coming into this race with her final work of the series here at Oaklawn Park on March 6.
Shedaresthedevil shares a role in Quad I, a “Fire” Contention along with higher 80 SpeedRate along with #2 MOTION EMOTION and #3 LETRUSKA, the pacesetters and need the lead types exiting the Houston Ladies Classic (G3). The outside post with the complexion of today’s field should force Geroux from the outside to put Shedaresthedevil into the race early and could see her falter late chasing that contentious pace. Brad Cox will also send out #4 GETRIDOFWHATAILESU here, one that will be class tested making her graded stakes debut coming off the B+ OptixGRADE in the Pippin S. during opening weekend. While she is a consistent type, her OptixFIG lack much in terms of progression and sit on the lower end of RANGE and in relation to others in this field. The pace scenario should allow for her to run on late from Quad IV and with the Circles in Quad I, is capable to pick up tiring runners for the minors.
RACE 7 – ESSEX H.
The “Red” PlotFit is crucial to keep in mind here looking at OptixPLOT and assessing the pace/race shape this afternoon. From Quad I, #4 TAX could appear to have a pace advantage this afternoon based on his position as a Quad I Square and with the “Snowflake” Contention. Connections scratched out of the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) two weeks ago, and while this race does not have the graded stakes association, it does carry a larger purse and will allow for Tax to race on Lasix as well. He has some overall form concerns that keep him from being a “standout” in this group, however capable. In terms of pace looking at Surface/Distance, #6 GREEN LIGHT GO expects to apply pace pressure with upside of his own coming into this race. Green Light Go will make his two-turn debut here following a scratch out of an allowance race here last weekend where he figured a strong contender and seems to be some positive intent to scratch out of that spot to run here instead. Green Light Go has shown consistent class throughout his career between the layoff lines and recorded OptixFIG that fit in RANGE this afternoon. He has upside as he did last week making his second start of the form cycle from the PREP returning from the 266-day layoff last month.
#5 SILVER STATE dominated (B+ OptixGRADE) the field in the Fifth Season S. here during the opening weekend program. He presented quality going back to his debut and after finding out his distance limitations on the Derby trail last year has been kept around the mile distance by Asmussen, a preferred route of ground. Silver State holds upside both in terms of Plot and progression over #7 NIGHT OPS, one that should benefit from the start and the added ground here though has shown with the Red Keywords to require a perfect trip and the right field quality to win.
RACE 9 – TEMPERENCE HILL S.
This type of marathon race presents tough handicapping puzzles and it’s worth spreading due to a chaos factor and lack of Surface/Distance data. With that said, #7 MURALIST will be a use based on the projected number and overall form especially form here this season making his third start of the form cycle. He turned in a “BTL/Better Than Looked” fifth-place finish on Jan. 29 and had some excuse due to the WEATHER and heavy FOG in the allowance just two weeks ago to take a step forward today. The more “logical” types here, #1 TENFOLD, #2 YOU’RE TO BLAME and #10 CAMPAIGN certainly are capable to win this afternoon; however, they fall into the tougher to trust category, something that is crucial with the shorter prices on that trio expected.
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