Oaklawn Circles & Squares Analysis for May 1

Emily Gullikson analyzes the closing day card at Oaklawn Park and provides her OptixEQ analysis.

RACE 1

Closing day of the meet and a final 2021 attempt for these state-bred fillies and mares to clear the maiden condition. #5 HOT SPRINGS BLING has run competitive races at the special weight level and just has run out of time on the calendar. #3 LITTLE BURRITO comes into this event with some sneaky form in her special weight races with OptixFIG in RANGE shown in the Past 3 Runlines. She also has upside coming out of the Rainbow Miss S. two weeks ago with that TRAFFIC and TROUBLE trip that cost her a chance to compete, and she showed run despite those challenges. Will also give another look to #7 MOONSHINE PRINCESS, one that has been “chased” at this maiden claiming level. Sitting alongside Hot Springs Bling in Quad II, she could move forward here off the recent WIDE trips. She should also offer value over #10 RACY JAYCEE in a similar Plot spot, however a Circle, and one that has had her share of gate issues and likely to get wagering support here with the class drop and the connections.

RACE 3

#7 BELLAMYS ROAN should be left on the radar here coming off an EX – Excuse and BTL (better than looked) effort on April 10. Capable to improve off that race, he fits on OptixFIG keying off the debut race back on March 4 earning a 78 OptixFIG against opening company maiden claiming, a top FIG for this field and on the high side of today’s OptixFIGRANGE. It was reasonable to see him regress off that debut with the wide post in his second start just 15 days later. That saw the rebound on April 10, the EX/BTL that could get overlooked here off the running line and sixth-place finish.

RACE 5

#2 UPSTRIKER has to improve this afternoon to compete, though has that upside potential making his second start off the layoff for his sophomore season. He ran an impressive B+ OptixGRADE and 85 OptixFIG on debut last season at Ellis Park. Following that race he was kept in stakes company where he was exposed at the route distance in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and struggled with the WIDE trip in the Nyquist S. during the Breeders’ Cup undercard. That race closed out 2020 and required the 155-day layoff that followed. Some positive expectations could have been in play here as he took wagering support from the 8-1 morning line on April 10. As shown on OptixPLOT and the Past 3 Runlines below, there is not a really clear-cut standout in this field, and a soft morning line favorite in #7 ULTIMATE, which could allow Upstriker to step up in that role with his upside potential. Positive intent could again be in play here returning to this higher allowance condition in just 21 days, along with the rider change to Cabrera, a rider who has had success for Moquett this meet.