November 27, 2022

Arlington Circles & Squares Analysis for Aug. 14

Emily Gullikson analyzes the Arlington Park Aug, 14 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.

Race 7 – Beverly D. (G1)

The light “Green” PlotFit presents a reliable Plot, and a potential pace advantage for #2 MEAN MARY.  She sits in Quad I with a Large Square with the bulk of the field “chasing” from Quad I/II as Circles. The positional speed should allow for Mean Mary to create separation on the others as well as the Square to kick and finish late. #3 JOY EPIFORA as the other Square in the field fits as an exotic use and holding her form coming out of the Modesty (G3), the local prep.

Class can upgrade #4 SANTA BARBARA, one that does not present any edge on the Plot. However, keep in mind she has just the one U.S. race, the Belmont Oaks (G1), to Plot. She could present upside as a lightly-raced three-year-old, but that could also create a hurdle as she will be running against older here as well. #6 LEMISTA also has limited data to Plot with just two American starts. She will land here for top connections and upside on that front; however, she is light in terms of class compared to others in this field.

Race 8 – Bruce D. (G1)

The “Red” PlotFit should be considered even with some consistency from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance. In terms of the quality of this field there is not a lot of separation top to bottom, and OptixFIG sit in RANGE, again without much edge, for many in this field. A lot of wagering support will side with #2 TANGO TANGO TANGO and #8 KING OF MIAMI, two logical runners returning from the local prep, the American Derby here last month. The two are positioned favorably on the Plot as Squares in Quad I, though could battle each other in that role, and project to find pace pressure from #1 THERIDEOFALIFETIME and #9 LIKE A SALTSHAKER.

#4 GINSBURNED, who could look to benefit from that Quad I Contention, is the other horse in this field that is a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. He is a lightly-raced, progressive type, coming off a strong win breaking his maiden recently at Ellis Park. He showed a lot of run while forced to make multiple moves and deal with TROUBLE, displaying his class to win going away. The timing is noted here with that special weight win just 20 days ago, a move that can suggest some positive intent to take this spot coming off that maiden win. As noted above, this race does not come up strong for the level, and without a graded stakes winner in the group, this step up in class is not as extreme under these conditions. Ginsburned fits with the field as a contender.