October 19, 2021

Indiana Grand Circles and Squares for Hoosier Heartland S. Sept. 15

Circles & Squares Logo
Indiana Grand Circles & Squares


Today’s race highlights an OptixPLOT with “Fire” Contention and a lower SpeedRate. This type of race shape can often look on paper to set up for closers with the presence of EP RunStyle horses. However, the SpeedRate suggests that might not necessarily be the case. Tactical speed and finishing ability (Squares) is most useful in these type of pace scenarios.

That will be kept in mind with the projected favorite, #5 PEARL TIARA. She is shown in that “Fire” Quad I, though she doesn’t hold any strong pace advantage in this race shape on OptixPLOT 2020. In terms of form and speed, she stacks up based on her Past 3 Runlines. She is also capable to move forward on class with the recent B+ OptixGRADE, something that will be required as she makes her first start against older fillies and mares at stakes level. She is capable of winning, though could be a soft favorite at a short price in this race.

#6 FIREBALL BABY is upgraded in terms of pace and for her position as a solid Square on Standard and Surface/Distance. Her position (Quad I) and finishing ability (Square) is consistent on both Plots and is upgraded with those minimal changes, especially as others present changes in shape and position from Standard to Surface/Distance. She holds form and OptixFIG in RANGE in her Past 3 Runlines, and looks to offer value as a Contender based on the morning line and how the public will assess her in this race.

#3 HITTHEFLOORRUNNING could fall into underlay/no-value category based on her Plot assessment and OptixFIG currently below Range. #1 PRETTY ASSETS will return to the main track and does hold an OptixFIG in RANGE keying off the July 1 race. She is capable of rebounding and upgraded on Surface/Distance to compete. However, she will have to overcome that lower SpeedRate and is something to consider in terms of value on the win end. #2 BREWSKY is a legitimate longshot in this race with OptixFIG and class (GRADE) below RANGE and, lacking a pace advantage, something that would be needed to compensate in this case.

#4 APRIL’S NO FOOL is light when it comes to OptixFIG for today’s RANGE this season. However, she’s on a progressive pattern as she makes her third start of the form cycle to suggest a move forward is possible. She can be upgraded based on the morning line with her Surface/Distance Plot.

#7 EXPECT INDY is also upgraded on the Plot as a Square in Quad I/IV, has back class (OptixGRADE at this stakes level), and OptixFIG in RANGE in prior seasons that make her competitive today. Her form has not quite been up to that level this season, though Contreras has used a two sprint-to-route pattern in the past. With a faster race track and with some positive projection, she can be playable at the right number.