June 23, 2024

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for Jan. 14

OptixEQ Circles and Squares
OptixEQ Circles and Squares


#1 C Z ROCKET will make his seasonal debut in this spot noting a scratch from an allowance race here back on December 18th. There are some reservations for the connections bringing this one back in an allowance race as he has been running exclusively in stakes races since the summer of 2020. His class (OptixGRADE at the stakes level) and OptixFIG stack up in RANGE, though will have show he is in peak form coming back to start the season as well as find the right trip. The trip is key from an OptixPLOT perspective, C A Rocket has the strongest late kick (Large Square) in the field though could have the challenge closing late into a lower SpeedRate. That trip will also be crucial from the rail as one that has a tendency to break slow/SLOG.

#6 KNEEDEEPINSNOW has some early speed (Quad I) and the ability to finish according to the Surface/Distance Plot. This will be his second start of the meet and for Maker exiting the allowance race C Z Rocket scratched out of on December 18th. The edge in terms of recency and trip could allow for a move forward and the “jump” on his main rival.

#7 CAZADERO could hold a pace advantage in this field with his early speed, the Quad I position. The “Fire” Contention is noted with the presence of others though the lower SpeedRate can assist horses forwardly placed. Cazadero lands in this spot making his first start off the layoff, a similar layoff to his Oaklawn Park return in 2021.

Oaklawn Park Optix Plot graph


#1 GLAMOUR GIRL has a look returning from the show finish in the December 12th allowance race. That placing was a “better than looked/BTL” effort given the handling as Geroux had her well off the pace (TACTIC-) before putting in a strong late kick (CLOSE) to finish in a BLANKET as the top three were together at the wire. In terms of class, she finds the same condition however a lower OptixFIGRANGE today, the 90-84 compared to the 95-89 RANGE last month.

Glamour Girl does not have to be as far back as she was last out, though the off-the-pace running style could be favorable for today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention. Morning line favorite, #2 FRONT STREET is part of the contentious Quad I and does not any pace, class, or speed figure edge at today’s two turn distance. #11 TRUMPET LILLY has similar value concerns at 4-1 lacking a speed or pace edge and will stepping up in class for this allowance event. Using the OptixFIGRANGE as a tool to assess the class level, Trumpet Lilly has the two recent wins with the OFR at 76-84, stepping up to the 90-84 RANGE today.

#10 TOO PRETTY is part of that “Fire” Quad I, though has upside as she makes her second start of the meet. She will make her second start of the meet exiting the sprint race on December 5th. This sprint-to-route angle has been successful for her and here at Oaklawn Park going back to both the 2020 and 2021 racing seasons.

#5 SHIP IT was also part of that BLANKET finish on December 12th along with Glamour Girl, though has distance concerns following the SHORTER? Projection given in OptixNOTES from that race. She is placed favorably in terms of the Plot, however the morning line along with the Projection could see her lack value or even vulnerable under today’s condition. #7 PRINCESS LEA has a nearly identical Plot with these two overlapping.  Princess Lea should not only offer the value of the two, though fits in this event in her own right based on her OptixFIG and GRADES last season at Churchill Downs and even some subtle Oaklawn Park form from last season at today’s distance.

Oaklawn Park Optix Plot graph