May 17, 2022

Oaklawn Park Circles & Squares Analysis for Jan 28

Cirlces & Squares for Oaklawn Park

RACE 1:

#9 FREER looks to hold a pace advantage in the opening race on the Friday card. His Plot position is strong as a Quad I Square and the lone runner in the field above the Par Line. His biggest challenge will be the fact he hasn’t raced since being claimed Nov. 11 at Churchill Downs, and there are some gaps in his works. #8 MEGA CHARLIE will also return from a lengthy layoff, though he holds some sneaky form (B- OptixGRADE) at this maiden claiming level from his races here last season. He has a steady work tab returning today for trainer Randy Morse and a live rider for this barn with John Hiraldo aboard.

#1 SPA has the edge in recency as he makes his second start of the meet. He exits a KEY? race from Jan. 2, a race that already produced a next out winner and others with improving OptixFIG. Spa showed run in that race and projects a move forward for this second start of the meet.

RACE 2:

#12 INCORRUPTIBLE projects to be favored in this race despite making his first start back in 791 days. In addition this will be just his second start, and he expects to get attention off the strong debut effort and speed figure earned back in 2019 at Fair Grounds.  There are some concerns with that time off as well as the placement today based on that debut as he will return at the lower claiming level, not necessarily a sign of confidence. While Incorruptible would not need to run back to that debut number (a number that could be inflated) to win, given all the factors involved he is the type of horse that is worth trying to beat at a shorter price in this spot.

#2 VIOLENT GIGI could hold a pace advantage keying off the Surface/Distance Plot. The contention does show a “Fire” rating based on the number of runners in Quad I, though also shows a lower SpeedRate. That could assist a horse forwardly placed and Violent Gigi has some hidden early speed, especially for this level. This will be his second start of the meet and he can be upgraded from the race shape, a contentious pace, as upside from the TRAFFIC and TROUBLE trip in the Dec. 19 starter allowance. He will find class relief to run here for the claiming tag, and it is worth noting that the Dec. 19 event has been productive with two next out winners as well as others with improving speed figures and finishing positions in their following starts.

#8 HONORARY DEGREE also worth a mention with today’s race shape and the lone “E” RunStyle combined with the Standard Quad I Square position. Connections also seem to suggest positive intent running in this event and class level noting a scratch from a similar race on Jan. 7, when he was unable to draw into the field and was assigned the 3-1 morning line that day. 

#1 THE FEATURE has been just that on Circles and Squares and has a mention once again. He has had some subtle trips in both of his local starts to give a look back at the right number. Trip will be key once again and he will be required to find a trip with the rail. The lower SpeedRate and lack of EP types could assist in this case with The Feature shown in Quad I. It is encouraging to see a rider change being made, a move off those recent trips that suggests positive intent at the least.

RACE 6:

The “Fire” Contention comes into play for today’s starter allowance when assessing morning line favorite, #5 ABSOLUTE LOVE. In terms of the Plot she holds a solid position as a Quad I Square, though is part of the “Fire” as well as the 45 SpeedRate as one of three runners above the Par Line, including pacesetter #4 TEXAS RAIN. In addition, the case can be made that Absolute Love’s better races are at a slightly shorter distance and not necessarily here at Oaklawn Park. #2 LEA RO also lacks some value as she does not hold an advantage as a short price as a Quad III/IV Circle.

#1 JAZZY LADY should find the ideal trip tracking that first flight and stalking trip as a Large Quad II Square. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, she holds recent OptixFIG in RANGE. The connections also show some positive intent to run in this spot and have been patient, noting a scratch back Jan. 9 when she was unable to draw into the race.