RACE 3:
The race shape here is one that is discussed quite a bit here on “Circles and Squares” as well as on #PlotPuzzle races. This race has the combination of the “Fire” Contention, shown by the group of runners in Quad I; however, it is paired with the lower SpeedRate shown on the Plot with the horses below the Par Line. This scenario makes it tougher for horses to “close” with stalking Run Styles, those PC/C types shown on OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) in Quad II/IV.
As far as Run Style, #8 SALADO is the lone E runner on OptixRPM. In today’s race shape he does not hold a pace advantage to the first call, a position which would have him furthest left from the others. Not only does he lack that pace advantage, but his current form also shows a lot of “Red” Keywords in OptixNOTES from Feb. 11 including the NO_FINISH – something that can be seen on the Plot as a Circle, representing the lack of finish. That same Circle shape and lack of pace advantage sit with #2 TANGO CHARLIE.
#1 COLD AS HELL could offer value as well, finding the required trip and pace advantage returning to this level in his fifth start of the meet. He is shown teetering around the Par Line and with the ability to make the lead from the rail and to the second call (higher on y-axis than others in this field) he could look to carry his speed. He ran a game race under similar conditions on Jan. 29, earning the B OptixGRADE finishing in a three-horse BLANKET at the wire. Cold as Hell is upgraded running as the Best of the Speed (BOS) against the dynamic (X_FLOW) as the race shape was slowing late and set up the winner, Ultimate, from off the pace. Cold as Hell also shows an “every other” pattern in his OptixGRADES starting out his form cycle with the place finish B- OptixGRADE and another BOS race on Dec. 18.
#9 NAME REJECTED sits favorably placed on the Plot for this race shape as the lone Quad I Square. While he should find the right trip, form comes into play as he will be asked to wheel right back in 13 days after recording a new top 100 OptixFIG and doing so in his first start back after a 50-day layoff. Name Rejected was claimed out of that event to make his first start for the new connections. Trainer Villafranco protects him here at this starter allowance condition, so the connections have a “free roll” running here without risk of a claim. He is capable, though as the projected heavy favorite, might not be the best bet.
#4 BEER CHASER should offer a bit more value, though he holds similar form concerns recording a new top OptixFIG (98) with the PERFECT trip on Feb. 11. Beer Chaser has the benefit of slightly more recovery time coming back in three weeks and does not hold the HARD Keyword, suggesting a taxing effort that is present with Name Rejected. The PERFECT is also a Red Keyword; that does not necessarily suggest a “regression,” though it does suggest how that top figure was earned and also in this case could be difficult to duplicate stepping up in class.
#5 BELFAST BOY (Quad II Square) will also wheel back from that common $50k claiming race with Name Rejected on Feb. 20. Trainer Puhich has had a solid meet sending out live runners though has come up short so far with Belfast Boy. To his credit, Belfast Boy has been holding his form and OptixFIG numbers that stack up on the lower end of the race par. He would benefit from the higher Contention, though he does have to position himself closer to that first flight or could be left with too much to do given that lower SpeedRate. Those same trip considerations are in play for #6 BREAKING NEWS from the common race and Plot position in Quad II. While some upside could be projected as Breaking News makes his second start off the long layoff, he would need that top effort without much recovery time coming back now under the care of Contreras claimed out of that event.
