COMMENTARY
JANUARY 12, 2006
Why Private Vow will win the Kentucky Derby
by John Mucciolo
A courageous title like this one is sure to attract naysayers from around the
country, but I’m sure that after reading this piece you will not find me so off
base and may actually, in turn, jump on the bandwagon with me. I would like this
to be in writing at this point, so when my wild prediction comes true, you know
where you heard it first.
For starters, picking the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner at this point of the
year, nonetheless 10 seconds before the race, is an immensely difficult
assignment that requires all the stars to line up in a certain way to come true,
but follow along and become one with my reasoning. Graded earnings, difficult
prep races, injuries, traffic trouble and a bevy of other factors stand in the
way, but if we look at BRIS Speed figures, pedigrees, ability and human
connections, we can come closer to a hypothesis that holds water.
Private Vow has never run a “clunker,” as some horse players like to call it,
where the horse never fires or is overmatched. The son of Broken Vow ran a big
second in his debut, and followed that up with three fairly dominant wins in New
York, where the racing doesn’t get much tougher. His lone hinderance was a race
where he never actually got the chance to run, when a broken rein cost him a
chance at Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) glory. This is obviously a serious horse,
so much so that trainer Steve Asmussen thought enough of him to say he’s the
best two-year-old he brought to New York earlier in the year. Big words from a
conditioner who pretty much dominated the juvenile racing scene at the 2005
Saratoga meet.
Private Vow has amassed lively and quite consistent Speed numbers to date,
leading us to believe that there is plenty more in the tank. We don’t feel the
same way about many of his competitors (Stevie Wonderboy, Henny Hughes and First
Samurai), but we’ll save that for another day. After registering a 91 BRIS Speed
fig in his debut, the colt reeled off numbers of 95, 101, 98 and 95, all without
being asked for his absolute best. He has not been hard ridden and his ceiling
is quite high. And, for a colt with six starts, he’s quite fresh.
In addition to being a supreme racehorse, the son of Broken Vow is bred to
handle the 10-furlong distance at Churchill Downs in May, and his running style
suggests that he can stay the trip as well. Originally perceived by some as a
sprinter, the colt showed a nice rating tactic in his Futurity S. (G2) thrashing
and also in his virtual workout in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) most
recently. Looking at his BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, we can notice that the
dark bay has eclipsed a 90 Late Pace rating in all of his outings, sans the
Breeders’ Cup mishap, and has done the same with his E2 ratings, proving that
his balanced running style should carry him a ways.
As for the pedigree, Private Vow is by Broken Vow, a five-time stakes winner
who’s biggest coup was the 2001 Philip H. Iselin H. (G2) at Monmouth Park. On
the track, Broken Vow concluded a career with a splendid 14-9-2-2 mark and more
than $725,000 in earnings. He is by a stamina influence, Unbridled, and is out
of a Nijinsky II mare, and like his pedigree suggests, Broken Vow did his best
running in route races. Private Vow’s dam, Smooth as Silk, is by Deputy Minister
and out of the Grade 3-winning stakes heroine Sacque (GB), which screams staying
power. For good measure, Smooth As Silk, while on the track, broke her maiden at
Del Mar going nine furlongs on the sod.
I didn’t forget about you Dosage fans out there. Private Vow has a superb
Dosage figure of 1.11 (with 1.0 being the optimal for stamina output), and a
Center of Distribution of 0.10. Next!
Private Vow’s trainer was the winningest trainer in the Unites States in
2005, and Steve Asmussen is a household name across the country in training
circles. He wins with babies, sprinters and routers alike, he knows how to
handle a good horse, and he’s due for a breakthrough on the Triple Crown trail.
The scenario reminds me of the breakthrough Richard Dutrow Jr. had at the
Breeders’ Cup this year, saddling two winners. Dutrow was widely thought of as a
top claiming and allowance trainer, but he proved that if you give him the right
horse, he’ll make good with him. Asmussen will do the same and his time is now.
And from the useless information department, we have studied and found out
that three of the past six Kentucky Derby winners were foaled on a Saturday, as
is Private Vow. Also, the past three Derby winners all captured races by at
least nine lengths sometime prior to the Run for the Roses, as has Private Vow.
Of the last five Derby heroes, their names are between seven and 11 letters,
Private Vow is 10, and three of those were from the first crop of their
respective sires, as is ‘Vow. The correlations are endless.
In conclusion, Private Vow has a successful race over the Churchill strip,
where he won the Jockey Club in the easiest of fashions, and he also has
valuable two-turn experience, which he gained in the same contest. He is trained
by the nation’s winningest conditioner, he’s bred to run all day, he’s obviously
an excellent racehorse among the head of his class, he is not tapped out and we
likely haven’t seen anything resembling his best effort yet. And there is even
has a website that has been established in tribute to the fine colt,
www.privatevow.com.
How can he lose?