Allaire duPont BC J

Friday’s $200,000 Allaire duPont Breeders’ Cup Distaff H. (G3), contested
over 1 1/16 miles at Pimlico, features the highly talented POOL LAND (Silver
Deputy) from the Todd Pletcher barn. The impressive winner of four of five
lifetime starts, she is coming off a runaway 12-length victory in Keeneland’s
Doubledogdare S. at this distance, in which she earned a lofty 108 BRIS Speed
rating. The four-year-old filly suffered her only loss two races back in the
seven-furlong Shirley Jones Breeders’ Cup H. (G2), when she was away slow from
the gate, then rushed up to a close fourth in the teeth of a :22 3/5 opening
quarter, only to fade to sixth. Pool Land is probably better at two turns in any
event, and she has the tactical speed to gain a forward position here beneath
Garrett Gomez. We see no reason to oppose the 2-1 morning line favorite,
especially since early pace factors are winning 64 percent of the 1 1/16-mile
races this meet.

The remaining eight fillies and mares are fairly evenly matched, so we’ll go
value hunting with FRIEL’S FOR REAL (Sword Dance [Ire]), an accomplished
performer whose chances are better than her 10-1 odds might suggest. The Edward
Allard mare won this stakes in 2004 and when attempting to defend her crown last
year, she caught a sloppy track that she doesn’t much care for and wound up a
distant third to SILMARIL (Diamond) and champion Ashado (Saint Ballado). Last
time out, in her second outing of the year, she again encountered wet-fast
conditions in the Winter Melody S. at Delaware Park but managed a better third,
beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Since then, the six-year-old has turned in a bullet
six-furlong drill in 1:13 at Philadelphia Park, and she could be rounding into
peak form in her third start off a layoff. Friel’s For Real boasts an excellent
record at Pimlico (3-2-0-1) as well as at this trip (14-7-1-4), and if she gets
the dry conditions she prefers, she could surge from midpack late. Stewart
Elliott returns to the saddle.

JOSH’S MADELYN (Quiet American) is a classy mare who has been in fine form
this year. Most recently, the Larry Jones trainee played runner-up to the
scintillating Dubai Escapade (Awesome Again) in the seven-furlong Madison S.
(G2) at Keeneland, posting a 114 BRIS Late Pace figure, the sixth straight time she’s
topped the century mark in that category. We think that there’s a fair bit of
early speed here to set up her great closing kick. Our main concern is that
horses with her running style have been at a disadvantage, so we’ll opt to use
her underneath rather than on top. Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount.

PROMENADE GIRL (Carson City) scored three wins in a row over the winter,
including the one-mile Nellie Morse S. at Laurel Park, racking up a 105 Speed
rating. She then dropped her next two stakes at Laurel, but we’ll forgive her
those because she was steadied in the first and hung out five-wide throughout
the second, the April 1 Snow Goose S. Conditioner Lawrence Murray has freshened
her since then, and the four-year-old has responded, signaling her readiness
with a sharp half-mile work at Laurel in :46 1/5. She should get a good tracking
position in midpack before unleashing her run. Erick Rodriguez will partner
Promenade Girl for the fourth straight race.

PRINCESS POLONA (El Prado [Ire]) has posted back-to-back victories in the
Snow Goose and Winter Melody. Although it would be no surprise to see her repeat
those performances, we suspect that her victims on those respective occasions,
Promenade Girl and Friel’s For Real, will turn in improved efforts here. PLATA
(Skip Away) loves Pimlico, with two wins and a second from three starts at Old
Hilltop. In her latest, she took full advantage of a cushy pace scenario in the
restricted Northview Stallion Station S., sauntering on an uncontested lead over
a sloppy track, and she won’t have things her own way this time. Still, Plata
will reunite with hot jockey Mario Pino, who’s compiling a 33 percent strike
rate at present.

IN THE GOLD (Golden Missile) deserves respect on the basis of her outstanding
form last year at three, most notably her win in the Gazelle S. (G1), but she
has been an abject disappointment in three starts this year. She wasn’t in the
same zip code as Pool Land when fourth in the Doubledogdare, and last time out,
she was again a non-threatening fourth in the Louisville Breeders’ Cup H. (G2).
While we would love to see her back to her best, we can’t recommend until she
gives us something to go on.

Silmaril is a vastly better runner when she gets an off track, and for that
reason, her win in last year’s edition of this race looks like a fluke. She
hasn’t come close to duplicating that performance in four subsequent races, and
she’s likely to be overbet. Unless the heavens open and the track turns muddy,
we’ll go against. DANCE FEE (Menifee) figures to be part of the early pace, but
we can’t see her sticking around for the finish.