HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 6, 2008
by Dick Powell
It was way before Al Gore invented the Internet, so it would be next to
impossible to check, but I wonder how many public handicappers picked against
Secretariat and Seattle Slew in all three Triple
Crown races?
Affirmed had Alydar, who many people
picked, but I wonder how it feels to go against a Triple Crown winner in all
three starts. It’s possible that I am about to find out.
BIG BROWN (Boundary) goes for the Triple Crown Saturday at Belmont as I write
this. After seeing a photograph of his left front hoof, I still have my doubts
that he’ll run, but as I write this Thursday morning I am assuming he will load
into post one for the 140th Belmont S. (G1).
In the Kentucky Derby (G1), I tried to beat him with DENIS OF CORK (Harlan’s
Holiday), who ran a nice race to get third at 27-1. In the Preakness, I thought I
had the exacta when ICABAD CRANE (Jump Start), at 22-1, made a strong move on
the far turn but he ran into traffic and hung in the drive to finish third.
At least I didn’t toss Big Brown completely, picking him second in both races
and using him in exotics. However, he made me look foolish by crushing his
competition and now we’ll see if I can clinch my own Triple Crown of
handicapping failure.
When looking at the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances for the Belmont, one
thing that jumps off the page is the gigantic edge in Prime Power ratings that
Big Brown enjoys. For a Grade 1 stake, I can’t ever remember a three-year-old having an
18.7 point lead over the next horse. Big Brown has dominated the first two legs
of the Triple Crown both numerically and visually. But with the bad hoof and relatively little amount of track work he’s
had in the past five weeks, I’m
tossing him.
The logical prime contender is the Japanese-owned CASINO DRIVE (Mineshaft).
The half-brother to the last two Belmont winners — Jazil (Seeking the Gold) and
Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) — looked good winning the Peter Pan S. (G2) here four
weeks ago and is lightly raced enough to indicate that more improvement is in
store.
I have all the respect in the world for Casino Drive, but he will try to get 1
1/2 miles in only his third career start. The pedigree, top and bottom, screams
“Yes” but the lack of experience screams “No.” Furthermore, international shippers
usually run their best race in their first start on foreign soil and then tend to
go downhill. Casino Drive’s training habits are a bit unusual and his
connections keep saying that five-furlong works in 1:10 are what they want.
But the fact is that he worked :59 4/5 before the Peter Pan and has yet to
show any zip the past month. It would be a great win and story if Casino Drive
pulled off the upset and it would have major ramifications for international
races, but I just don’t see it happening.
Of the others that have faced Big Brown in the first two legs, it’s hard for
me to get excited about any of them. They might finish in the money but they
have already proved that they are not up to the task.
So that leaves me with READY’S ECHO (More Than Ready), who will be my choice
to pull off the upset. After rallying from 25 lengths behind to get second in
his career debut at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs, the dark bay was off until March when he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park
going seven furlongs.
Despite being by a sire who usually throws quick, precocious speedballs,
Ready’s Echo usually breaks flat-footed and races toward the rear of the field.
In his maiden race, he accelerated beautifully in the stretch and was now ready
for two turns at Keeneland.
Sitting in 10th behind a first quarter of :25 1/5, John Velazquez had
Ready’s Echo in the back of the back. In the run down the backstretch, he began
to inch closer but on the far turn it looked like his momentum was stalled.
Midway around the far turn, he kicked in again, passed horses on the inside and
then swung out for the homestretch. He went from ninth to miss by a neck in a
very dramatic rush to the wire.
With that race under his belt, trainer Todd Pletcher ran him back in the
Peter Pan where he faced Casino Drive. He fell far behind in the
long run down the Belmont backstretch but began to show interest with about
three furlongs to go. Casino Drive had pulled off the rail to go up after the
leaders while Ready’s Echo was making his rally. They basically ran together to
the wire with Casino Drive pulling away to a 5 3/4-length victory and Ready’s Echo
getting up for third.
Playing come-from-behind types and extrapolating their form out to 1 1/2 miles
is usually a prescription for failure, but there’s a lot of things to like about
Ready’s Echo. He’s already shown that he can pass horses, pass horses on the
inside and pass horses while in between. He’s avoided the rigors of the Triple
Crown and comes into the Belmont fresh and fit for the same jockey and trainer that won
last year’s Belmont with Rags to Riches.
As we pointed out last week, Belmont Park’s main track has been noticeably
slower the past few weeks. Ready’s Echo has already run well on the rock-hard
Gulfstream main track, the Polytrack at Keeneland and has a race over Belmont’s
main track. He’s trained well for Pletcher, who is always dangerous when just
under the radar screen.
Ready’s Echo’s final pace figures are the best in the field and, while deep
closers do not always run well at the marathon distance of the Belmont, he gives
me enough confidence that he’ll be running hard at the end.
Betting this year’s Belmont is especially tricky since Big Brown will be 1-5
if he runs. I maintain that the hoof is far more serious than the bravado that
we are hearing from the Big Brown camp and there’s a good chance he doesn’t run
at all. If he wins, he wins and I will give him a polite golf clap and switch
channels as soon as possible. I don’t want to see him lose, but I also don’t want to see
him put at risk and I don’t want to see those that put him at risk giving each other
high fives.
My betting strategy will be Ready’s Echo to win and place and key him in all
three trifecta positions with all. I’m hoping for 30-1 on him but the amount of
money I play in the race depends on whether Big Brown runs. If he does, I’ll bet
less; if he doesn’t run, I’ll bet more. It’s that kind of race.