KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 1, 2010
by James Scully
Todd Pletcher’s name will be all over this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1)
program. With MISSION IMPAZIBLE’s (Unbridled’s Song) victory in Saturday’s
$750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2), the conditioner’s roster is potentially
nine-deep.
Here’s a break down of Pletcher’s Derby horses in terms of graded earnings:
Mission Impazible joined RULE (Roman Ruler) and DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft)
as guaranteed Derby starters, barring injury. INTERACTIF (Broken Vow) and
AIKENITE (Yes It’s True) are well-situated with $270,450 and $218,000,
respectively, in graded earnings and both will have the opportunity to pad their
bankroll in the $750,000 Blue Grass S. (G1) on April 10. That’s five Derby
starters so far.
SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) and ESKENDEREYA (Giant’s Causeway) are on the
outside of the graded-earnings bubble presently, with $163,832 and $150,000,
respectively, but both colts are poised to make a significant jump in their
final prep. Eskendereya will be the heavy favorite in Saturday’s $750,000 Wood
Memorial (G1), and Super Saver looms as the potential lone speed in next
Saturday’s $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1). That makes seven probables.
Pletcher said on Tuesday’s NTRA teleconference to include Grade 1-winning
filly DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) in the Derby discussion. Nominated to the
Triple Crown, Devil May Care ran nine furlongs faster than Florida Derby (G1)
winner Ice Box (Pulpit) when posting a 2 3/4-length victory in the Bonnie Miss
S. (G2) earlier on the program and will easily make the field ($364,000 in
graded earnings) if her connections decide to challenge a less-than-inspiring
group of males. Look for them to opt for the Derby route, providing Pletcher
with his eighth contestant.
Last on the nine-horse list is CONNEMARA (Giant’s Causeway). Winner of the El
Camino Real Derby (G3) two back, the half-brother to 2004 Derby runner-up Lion
Heart finished third as the 8-5 choice in Saturday’s Lane’s End S. (G2) and will
need major defections in order to make the Derby with only $138,500 in graded
earnings. A good showing in the $300,000 Lexington S. (G2) on April 17 would
ensure his participation, but his connections may not want to run him that close
to the Derby.
So we’ll go with eight likely Derby runners, with the possibility of nine.
That puts Pletcher, who has recorded a pair of seconds and a third in 24
previous Derby starts, in position to send out at least 40 percent of the 2010
Derby field. He has a lot of good horses as well as strength by numbers.
Louisiana Derby
Mission Impazible recorded a hard-fought, three-quarters of a length decision
over pacesetter A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) in the 1 1/8-mile Louisiana Derby.
After breaking on top, the gray colt was eased back by jockey Rajiv Maragh and
received a ground-saving trip along the inside, within a few lengths of the
leader. Maragh guided his mount off the rail approaching the conclusion of the
far turn and went after A Little Warm in midstretch, eventually wearing down his
rival late. He received a disappointing 97 BRIS Speed rating for his effort.
That Speed figure won’t get it done on May 1 and the Louisiana Derby doesn’t
look like a strong prep. But Mission Impazible, whose lone previous win came in
a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight event at Keeneland last April, is a horse
on the improve for Pletcher. After being sidelined eight months, he returned
with a close second in a six-furlong allowance at Gulfstream in January and then
gave a solid account of himself with a fourth-place effort in the Southwest
S. (G3), re-rallying through the stretch after losing ground on the far turn. He
took a significant step forward in the Louisiana Derby, flashing plenty of
potential for the lucrative three-year-old stakes races this summer, but he’ll
be competing for a minor award at best on Derby Day.
A Little Warm ran a big one in his two-turn debut, withstanding multiple bids
from fourth-placer Discreetly Mine before being challenged by Mission Imapazible
and third-placer DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor) inside the final furlong, but
trainer Tony Dutrow was non-committal about the Derby afterward, leaving it up
to the owners to decide. The speedy colt is in a tenuous position with only $180,000 in graded
earnings and a handful of rich prep races remaining, and it would probably be in
his best interest to bypass the Derby given his pedigree for 1 1/4 miles.
Drosselmeyer was able to save ground early from post 13, angling over to the
rail in midpack as he entered the first turn, but encountered serious trouble
in the stretch run. Jockey Kent Desormeaux had the option to take him
around horses entering the far turn, but he elected to remain on the rail and
Drosselmeyer arrived at the top of the stretch with a head full of momentum and
no place to go. Desormeaux was forced to apply the brakes and, with no
opportunity to alter course, waited until a path opened in deep stretch. By that
point it was too late and Drosselmeyer wound up being beaten only a length in
third. He’s left with only $85,000 in graded earnings, and trainer Bill Mott
will need to squeeze in another prep race or point toward the Preakness S. (G1).
Discreetly Mine, who was forwardly-placed from the start, offered a bold move
turning for home but came up a little short in the final eighth of a mile,
checking in another neck back in fourth. He’s earned BRIS Speed ratings of
95-97-95 this year and will be facing faster horses next time.
Sunland Derby
ENDORSEMENT (Distorted Humor) is a new face on the Derby scene by virtue of
his convincing victory in Sunday’s Sunland Derby (G3), rolling past pacesetter
and 3-5 favorite CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) at the top of the stretch to win
going away by three lengths. Owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Shannon
Ritter, the well-bred colt was dismissed at 11-1 by the betting public following
a 2 1/2-length maiden score on February 20 at Oaklawn Park that netted him only
a 93 BRIS Speed rating. He earned a career-best 99 Speed number at Sunland Park.
Conveyance’s stock took a serious tumble in defeat. The gray colt comfortably
captured his first four career starts, including a pair of one-mile tallies this
year in the Southwest and San Rafael S. (G3), and led by 1 1/2 lengths on Sunday
after an opening half-mile in a dawdling :48.04. The Bob Baffert pupil couldn’t
have asked for a better set-up — only one of the other 11 two-turn route races
on the program featured a slower opening half-mile — but it became readily
apparent that Conveyance was in trouble when Martin Garcia began asking for more
approaching the stretch drive. Conveyance didn’t put up much of a fight against
the winner and will have to carry his speed an extra eighth of a mile on a
contested pace in the Derby.
Endorsement is out of an A.P. Indy mare and may generate some comparisons to
last year’s three-year-old champion Summer Bird (Birdstone). After breaking his
maiden at Oaklawn last March, Summer Bird finished third in the Arkansas Derby
and sixth in the Kentucky Derby. He went on to win the Belmont S. (G1), Travers
S. (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Endorsement has a lot to do to live up to
those standards, but he’s got that kind of potential. The chestnut owns good
tactical speed and can finish, generating BRIS Late Pace ratings of 107 and 101
in his limited racing career, and there’s plenty of room for improvement. He’s a
beautiful mover who shouldn’t be taken lightly, but the Derby will be asking a
lot from such an inexperienced colt.
Don’t be surprised to see Endorsement’s bandwagon pick up steam in the coming
weeks, especially if he trains splendidly at Churchill Downs, but history is not
in his corner. Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Derby after breaking his
maiden in February, is another recent example of a supremely talented
three-year-old who wasn’t able to overcome his inexperience on the first
Saturday in May.
Lane’s End
DEAN’S KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy) switched from turf to Polytrack to notch his
first stakes victory in Saturday’s Lane’s End, rallying from just off the pace
to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths, and is headed to the Derby for owner Ken
Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker. The synthetic track at Turfway Park is the only
reason he’s in the picture.
His lone dirt attempt came over a good track in the off-the-turf Pilgrim S.
at Belmont Park last year and Dean’s Kitten trailed most of the way before
winding up 33 3/4 lengths back of the winner. He posted an encouraging 101 BRIS
Speed rating in the Lane’s End and rates as one of the top turf three-year-olds
in the country, but Dean’s Kitten will probably finish up the track in the
Derby.
Upcoming
A dynamite slate of races is on tap this weekend, headed by the appearances
of the two leading Kentucky Derby contenders, LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) and
ESKENDEREYA. The former will be the one to beat in the Santa Anita Derby (G1),
where he’ll have to catch dangerous front runner and San Felipe S. (G2) winner
SIDNEY’S CANDY (Candy’s Ride [Arg]). The centerpiece event of the Santa Anita
meet will provide the last opportunity for Derby hopefuls CARACORTADO (Cat
Dreams), SETSUKO (Pleasantly Perfect) and ALPHIE’S BET (Tribal Rule) to garner
enough graded earnings.
Eskendereya put on a scintillating display at Gulfstream Park when capturing
the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) by 8 1/2 lengths, but he bypassed the Florida Derby
in favor of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he will face a much stiffer
test. AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again) looked formidable when posting an impressive 1
1/4-length score in his U.S. debut, the Gotham S. (G3), and is eligible to keep
moving forward for trainer Jeremy Noseda on Saturday. Fountain of Youth and
Holy Bull S. (G3) runner-up JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) will be cranked up for his
best by Nick Zito, and SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Stephen Got Even), who narrowly lost
the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) after striking the front too early, will pick up the
services of Ramon Dominguez and enters on the upswing for Derek Ryan.
Tom Amoss has morning-line favorite BACKTALK (Smarty Jones) in Saturday’s
Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne. The Grade 2-winning colt opened his sophomore
campaign with a victory in the Sportsmen’s Paradise S. at Delta Downs and
recorded a sizzling six-furlong workout at Fair Grounds last weekend in
preparation for his second start of the season. Gotham runner-up YAWANNA TWIST
(Yonaguska) will ship in for Richard Dutrow, and a couple of well-regarded
California invaders, AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) and DAVE IN DIXIE (Dixie Union),
will be looking to move up in their dirt debuts.