HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 1, 2010
by Dick Powell
So many races; so little time to go over all of them. Nine Grade 1 stakes
races will be offered this weekend in North America as most horses will be
making their final Breeders’ Cup preparations.
Belmont Park will be holding their annual Super Saturday with five Grade 1
stakes races carded. Last year, it was a total washout as torrential rains hit
and this year, the rain that is hitting the New York City area should at least
stop before Saturday. The turf courses should be softened up some so pay
attention to horses that have done well when the turf was anything but “firm.”
First up is the Vosburgh S. (G1) at six furlongs on the main track. It
attracted a field of nine and at least six of them have a shot. On a track that
might still be sloppy by the time it’s run, you could argue that all of them
have a shot. GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy) looked like a horse that needed a race when he
ran evenly in the Forego (G1) last out going seven furlongs. He likes Belmont
and has a strong pedigree for wet-track success.
The Flower Bowl Invitational S. (G1) is for fillies and mares going 10
furlongs on the inner turf course. RED DESIRE (Jpn) (Manhattan Café) ships in
from Japan where she is one of their best turfers. She has beaten Group 1 males
at 1 1/4 miles and comes into this race off a wide-trip fourth going a mile in a
fast time. How she does on a soft turf course will be the main question she has
to answer. SHARED ACCOUNT (Pleasantly Perfect) has the best soft-turf form and
should benefit the most if expected rains hit.
The Beldam (G1) is up next for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the
main track. Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra retired this week and BLIND LUCK
(Pollard’s Vision) went to the Cotillion (G2) at Parx Racing (nee Philly Park)
so the Beldame came up a little bit light with only a field of six competing. At
weight-for-age conditions, LIFE AT TEN (Malibu Moon) looks to have these at her
mercy. She tired badly in the Personal Ensign (G1) last out when she dueled with
Rachel Alexandra over a very deep and tiring track. Her win at Belmont in the
Ogden Phipps (G1) was brilliant and she won her only start over a wet track.
The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S. (G1) attracted a field of 11 and
with Belmont canceling racing on Thursday due to heavy rain and high winds, this
year’s race could be run on similar ground to last year when INTERPATATION
(Langfuhr) won in 2:41 and change for a mile and a half. Interpatation is back
again but looks, like he did last year, overmatched. PADDY O’ PRADO (El Prado
[Ire]) has had a hard year by today’s standards as he makes his ninth start of
2010 and takes on older horses for the first time. I’m going to go with BEARPATH
(Dynaformer), who has shown an ability to handle soft turf going 1 1/2 miles and
should get a good trip while saving ground.
In the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) for three year olds and up going 1 1/4 miles
on the main track, seven horses will try to deny BLAME (Arch) his sixth straight
victory and third in Grade 1 stakes company. The winner of the Whitney H. (G1)
in his last start, Blame is using the Gold Cup as his final prep for the
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which will be contested over his home track of
Churchill Downs. At weight-for-age conditions, he’ll be tough and should be able
to handle a wet track since he has shown an ability to handle anything he runs
over. With his ability to relax and unleash a devastating late kick, 10 furlongs
should be right up his alley. The only negatives are the potential for someone
to get loose on the lead and never look back or not being cranked up enough with
his big goal five weeks away. HAYNESFIELD (Speightstown) has a huge wet-track
pedigree, tactical speed and four wins in five starts over the Belmont main
track.
The Oak Tree meeting will be run at Hollywood Park this year and it hosts
four Grade 1 stakes on Saturday. Race 6 is the Norfolk S. (G1) for juveniles
going 1 1/16 miles on the Cushion Track. J P’S GUSTO (Successful Appeal) has won
his last four starts including a maiden victory at Hollywood. He finishes his
races surprisingly well considering that he runs on the pace and the Norfolk
will be his first attempt at going two turns. Even with a sprint pedigree, he
should handle his rivals here.
The Lady’s Secret S. (G1) was supposed to be re-named the Zenyatta S. but
when the undefeated mare came back for another year of racing, the name change
was shelved for another year. Based upon speed figures, ZENYATTA (Street Cry
[Ire]) should be vulnerable at a distance where she is just getting warmed up —
1 1/16 miles — but her will to win overcomes all. If I were Rafael Bejarano, I
would open up as big a lead as possible aboard RINTERVAL (Ire) (Desert Prince
[Ire]) and dare her to catch me.
The Yellow Ribbon S. (G1) at 1 1/4 miles on the turf attracted nine
hard-knocking female turfers. GYPSY’S WARNING (SAf) (Mogok) had a rough trip in
the Beverly D. S. (G1) last out at Arlington Park and should get a better trip
from post 1. HIBAAYEB (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) was a good third behind Sarafina
(Refuse to Bend [Ire]) earlier this summer going today’s distance and could
complete the exacta.
The Goodwood S. (G1) is the final Grade 1 run on Saturday at Hollywood Park
and only seven showed up in the entry box. In a field that looks devoid of
speed, TWIRLING CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) could have things his owns way on the
front end if Mike Smith decides to send him. Too many of the others look like
they want 10 furlongs instead of nine and might not get there in time.
Elsewhere, LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) returns to the races at Hoosier
Park for the Indiana Derby (G2) and the Cotillion attracted not only Blind Luck
but Alabama S. (G1) runner-up HAVRE DE GRACE (Saint Liam).
On Sunday in Paris, Longchamp will host seven Group 1 stakes races including
the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1). As I write this on Thursday, Paris is
receiving rainy weather and it is expected that the turf course will be very
soft come Sunday. 22 horses are considering running — only 20 can enter for
safety reasons — and post positions have not been drawn yet. I still think that
SARAFINA is going to run a big race and the soft turf only helps her. FAME AND
GLORY (Montjeu) hasn’t run in 56 days, but he should also move up on soft turf.
We’ll have to wait to see who actually enters and while it might not be a
memorable renewal of the Arc, it certainly will be one of the best to wager on.