HANDICAPPING FEATURE
OCTOBER 26, 2007
Some Possible Clues on Reading the Monmouth racing surface: Wednesday in
Review and Friday and Saturday in Preview
by Steve Zacks
As a follow-up to last week’s piece on the Monmouth bias (if any exists), we
list several horses to watch on Friday and Saturday for possible indications of
how the track is playing. By running well some horses will tell you things; by
not running well the same horses may tell you other things. THESE HORSES/RACES
ARE NOT RECOMMENDED AS PLAYS, but as horses/races from which you can learn
things for later on.
The piece is written before Thursday’s races have begun and the weather and
track conditions are known. The weather map suggests significant rain at some
time in the next few days. The track was wet and drying on Wednesday but there
appears to be a lot more wet stuff in the offing. The darker the surface appears
on the TV screen the wetter it usually is. While one can try to anticipate the
weather nothing is for sure, just as is the case for many races. I try to
incorporate the prospect of a wet track into my thoughts.
Wednesday Review
Well I did not exactly outdo myself with the horses I selected to watch
— and I hoped you noted the warning that these were not win selections for the
day (we played one) — they did create the needed focus and did answer the
questions asked. The simple conclusion is that on the day there was lots of
movement but, as expected, mistimed (too early or too late) or misplaced (too
wide) moves were to no avail. The fractions got faster as the day progressed and
the projected pace figures were matched and close to the summer’s projections.
The dirt lessons to be learned are that it was best to be in contention at or
nearing the quarter-pole going either long or short, and the horse can not be
too wide when making that move. Please pay attention to the fact that the day’s
two highest prices came from sixth place in a field of seven (Judith’s Symphony
[Brahms] in the 5TH) and sevent in a field of 11 (Medford Junction [Private
Interview] in the 10TH) to pay $33.80 and $25.60, respectively. Each was ridden
by jocks with summer experience at Monmouth and neither was very wide at any
time of their serious efforts. Many wide moves gained ground but progress halted
at the eighth pole. Early in the day, front runners turning for home were
widening in the stretch while others were making bold but non-threatening wide
moves.
The turf looks more than fair. A stretching out sprinter got loose and while
he may have had an excuse when pressured by a riderless foe, he had no excuses
and was no match for the Mott-trained WAR MONGER (War Chant), who is by a
Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner.
Reviewing the selected races
In the 2ND race, Don’t Question (Sailor’s Warning) was off the pace but never
got inside and never mounted a serious charge. While the following thought is
from memory and not based on formal research, horses may have more difficulty
shortening up in distance at this track than at many others — unless they
showed good early speed in routes.
In the 4TH, a split of the 2ND, De Fearless One (Defrere) may have paid the
price for his quick return off a top effort. After a sluggish start he was
always wide and whatever run he had, made little impact, though he did pass
several during the race.
In the 5TH, Hale and Hearty (Millennium Wind) forced the pace of a
free-running long shot early, mounted a bid but proved no match for the
aforementioned winning longshot Judith’s Symphony. He lost the place on the last
jump to a horse rallying inside.
In Wednesday’s 10TH race finale, Lockup (Deputy Warlock), the lone “S” on the
BRIS summary, showed no early speed but then closed ground midtrack — probably
not the place to be. The winner managed to find the inside after starting
outside and his rally meant something as he entered contention on the turn while
saving ground.
The simple assessment is that Monmouth played like Monmouth for the most
part. I noted in the original piece that closers could win with good trips over
the summer. That was the case today. The problem often was in identifying which
horses would get the needed trip to save that ground.
My approach, barring any drastic change, will be to consider every horse I
like and that my handicapping tells me can win. From there, I have to decide if
my horse will get the trip he needs. Will he run inside? Can be in contention on
the turn? In other words even if the jockey and trainer are aware of what to do,
is the horse capable of executing the plan and find the path to the winners’
circle. Monmouth regulars will also tell you that C.C. Lopez is probably the
best bias rider there. Watch carefully which path he chooses and if he tries to
restrain a front-runner or turns him loose. Unless the track changes late
rallies in the middle of the pack will only get you a smaller share — if that!
Late Thursday Update
The rains came and turned the track wet and muddy/sloppy. The main change to
be observed that there were two winners that came with wide rallies beyond the
four path on the turn and entering the stretch. They had both begun their strong
late moves entering the turn and they both were well backed in their events.
This suggests that the outside of the track might be playing fairer than it had
been. However, the inside was not negative as the surrounding races were won by
inside runners on or near the lead; a wide rallier made the lead but was passed
by an inside closer going under the wire in the finale.
Friday
I generally avoid using maiden races with many of the starters making their
first few starts; these races are less than predictable and full of surprises
and form reversals of a positive or negative nature. Of course you can still
note if the pace is contested and in which paths the horses are faring the best.
Prices of winners and in-the-money horses provide some help. Does the front
runner widen in the stretch? Are the best stretch movers wide or inside? Which
paths are the top jocks trying to find? You may not be able to find a play here,
but you still can learn from them. And if your opinion proves wrong, was it your
handicapping that missed something or did something happen that suggests the
race track contributed to your loss. BE HONEST WITH THIS if you want to benefit
later on!
By themselves, the 3RD 4TH and 5TH races may not prove much; when viewed
together as a group they may tell a whole lot about how the races will be won
going two turns.
The 3RD race is a high-purse entry level allowance route with a full field
and a good mix of early runners and pace pressers. There are several in-form,
lightly-raced developing sophomores in the mix and taking a short price on any
(at least from my perspective) would be foolish. If there is any detectable
bias, either the track norm or something new that is appearing over the first
few days that may help narrow the field. Otherwise the race should provide a
good learning experience for the two-turn races. Horses are coming from five
different real dirt venues. A real clue would come if any can rally successfully
from far back or from an outside post; the lack of a standout in the race would
suggest that perhaps the racing surface is playing fair. Based on what we
learned yesterday, a closer can win; the winner will likely be in contention by
the midpoint of the turn and will be moving not too far out in the track. If you
cannot find one you like, watch and observe the race or the replay to see if the
winner fits that description.
The 4TH race is a high-purse second level allowance route with a full field
and a good mix of early middle and late runners. The two-for-two sophomore, Now
A Victor (Yankee Victor), is the one that catches my eye as the kind of colt
that could be a good one. He looks to have the quality speed, tractability and
connections to turn into a nice kind of runner. He now stretches out for the
first time; he has a good run to the first turn and should be able to get
position; only the running of the race will tell if he is good enough. His rider
is well aware that the inside is the best route to take. Early speed is somewhat
less dominant as they go farther, but outside posts have not fared well —
though from limited opportunities. He may have to even out his energy allocation
to finish on top of this contentious field based on the final BRIS Speed
numbers. Even if he wins it will be hard to tell if he is a good horse or it was
due to the track. There are strong finishers in the mix and an off-the-pace
victory by El Chile Dog (Puerto Madero) that should also like the off going or
any of several others, depending upon tactics elected, would prove interesting
and informative.
Six sophomore distance fillies square off in the 5TH race, the Inside
Information S. Two of the fillies, Boca Grande (A.P. Indy) and Bare Dancer
(Cherokee Run), would seem to be rallying types that have done their best
running at one turn and/or against slower paces. If closers are competitive the
two turns could suit them; the former is the favorite, the latter one of the two
longest prices. Shippers come in from four different tracks; the pace could be
crowded, so one of the closers should have a good chance. Should Boca Grande
turn the tables on Tessa Blue (Awesome Again), who bested her by seven lengths,
it might suggest at least a fair running surface.
Two-year-old sprinters go six furlongs in the 7TH race, the final pre-BC
event. There are several multiple winners in the mix and also several that have
won only on the front end. Young horses of some quality are frequently not a
prisoner to a running style, but rather the good ones respond to their jockey’s
handling. The race is a complicated read with several of the runners coming off
career-bests and others off “soft” wins or bounce efforts. Unless the track is
much slower than normal, the pace should be right around :22 and :45; those who
can stand pressure and/or rally from the back should prove effective. With the
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint up next, heed the paths and trips of the
winners and losers on the turn. Unless things are different, they should be
within a couple of lengths or at least moving and should not be too far off the
inside.
If, in any of these better preliminaries, regardless of distance, outside
movers are sustaining their moves and gaining ground beyond the three or four
path, things are different — in my view at least.
You should be able to learn something from watching these middle races that
should help in the final trio of BC events. Just make sure that you don’t make
too many excuses for your selections. See what is going on from an open-minded
perspective. If the track is likely to affect certain horses you like, downplay
their chances … unless you see the rider adapting to the current situation, if
in fact there is a detectable one. And if logical favorites are winning these
races, and longer prices with contrary running styles are faring well, do not
give up the fight. You might be right — if you get the right trip. Getting
lucky always beats being smart!
Saturday
Again, the exact state of the weather and track condition is an unknown.
Based on what we know so far, the most important key would be to see the
progress runners are making wide and in the stretch. The inside paths are
usually favorable here and being in or approaching contention by the midpoint of
the turn is the normal path to success. Any detected deviation from the norm —
such as bold wide moves and big gains in deep stretch — could put you in line
for some handsome returns.
The three preliminary races on Saturday are all stakes for sophomores; two
are sprints and the 1ST race is the Pegasus (G3) at nine furlongs for young
males. In my opinion, a lot will depend on whether the two-for-two Now A Victor
(Yankee Victor) elects to run here today. Should he do so, he can be the
dominant speed and may have the kind of quality to develop into a good one. He
looks to have the quality speed and tractability. Stretching out for the first
time, he should get a good run to the first turn and secure position; only the
running of the race will tell if he is good enough. His rider is well aware that
the inside is the best route to take. Should he run and wire the field, it would
only suggest that he is the best. Should he get clear, set a moderate pace and
stop, it might suggest other than a speed-conducive track. Money is likely to
show up on him if expectations are favorable. I would be surprised to see him at
his morning line. Helsinki (Distorted Humor) faced an impossible task last time,
but did put in a big late run and with the drop in class, should provide a good
read on late speed. Pay careful attention to his paths and the timing of his
move.
The Miss Woodford S. at six furlongs is the first of two preliminary sprints
and goes as the 2ND race. Considering the full field and pace mix, it would seem
unlikely that any will get away on these if the break is clean. Silver Knockers
(Silver Deputy) exits the Test (G1) at Saratoga and has indicated some
willingness to close ground. Her inside draw, with winning rider Bravo aboard,
should give you an opportunity to study what he thinks about the paths on the
track. As the perennial leading rider here, he might teach you a lot by paying
attention. Coco Belle (Storm Boot) has really good early speed and while drawn
outside, she goes back to real dirt which she once handled well. She is well set
up and looks sharp coming off a win at Oak Tree. Sindy with an S (Broken Vow)
was a handy winner at Laurel last time and should give a decent read on the
stalkers. A top California rider is up — but out there a lot of races are won
with wide trips. Watch and learn.
The final preliminary is the Select S. for three-year-olds at six furlongs.
The inside gelding Appealing Spring (Successful Appeal) has shown closing
tendencies (is rated as the lone “S” on the BRIS Bias Summary) and was able to
gain ground in Grade 3 company in his first try over Polytrack at Turfway. If
the inside is good, he could get the needed trip at a square price. He needs to
improve to win, but he is one I will be paying close attention to for later on.
Presuming he is back on track following the layoff, Buffalo Man (El Prado) could
prove to be the inside speed. He was as fast as any back in February so it is
easy to make him a factor as he should be bigger and stronger now. He has a top
local jock so anticipate the proper trip.
Interim Conclusions and Things to Watch for
Based on one day’s races and unknown weather and track conditions for the big
days, I still think that closers can win with the proper trip. A repeat of
Street Sense’s (Street Cry [Ire]) Juvenile (G1) or Derby (G1) (and even his
Preakness [G1] except for his stretch failure) is the desired text book ride for
victory on this track. It is also the desired one on most North American tracks
too. So unless one detects changes, the basic Monmouth norms remain in place:
Being in contention or moving into contention on the turn is essential.
The closer to the inside the better particularly on the turns; the inside
three (or four) paths (though as of yet the rail path has not dominated).
Closers can make up many lengths, but so far the best moves and impact has
been made by horses running or moving late on the inner three or four paths.
If you detect any big outside moves being sustained, and loose speed backing
up, or any horse fading inside off reasonable trips, then maybe things are
changing.
Good luck, enjoy, and may the goddess of racing be on your side!