CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK
NOVEMBER 21, 2007
by Steve Collison
Happy Thanksgiving!
On Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, Churchill Downs will offer a full card of
12 contentious races highlighted by the $300,000 Fall City H. (G2) for fillies
and mares, three-years-old and up, going 1 1/8 miles. The quality field of seven
includes Todd Pletcher’s PANTY RAID (Include), who figures to be the likely
favorite, with TESSE BLUE (Awesome Again) looming as the main threat. The Frank
Brothers-trained Tessa Blue has looked awesome in her last two starts, winning
by a combined 20 lengths. Brothers attributes that success to her ability to
show speed after stretching out in distance. The trainer is also quick to point
out that veteran jockey Mike Smith fits her running style perfectly and is a
major reason why she’s going as well as she is right now. If Tessa Blue can
indeed triumph, she will be the fifth three-year-old in seven seasons to capture
this traditional Thanksgiving event. Panty Raid is also a sophomore.
The Holiday festivities will continue on Friday with the $500,000 Clark H.
(G2) on tap, along with the River City H. (G3) at 1 1/8 miles over the turf.
On Saturday, the fall Churchill meet concludes with a pair of graded stakes
in the $250,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and $250,000 Golden Rod S. (G2), both
at 1 1/16 miles for two-year-old males and fillies, respectively.
TRAINERS
Trainer Steve Asmussen has turned what looked like a tight trainer’s battle
into a runaway as we head into the final days of the Churchill stand. At the
end of the first week, he and Bill Mott were tied atop the standings with two wins apiece. Now,
two weeks later, Asmussen has 13 winners to his credit, with Dale Romans the
nearest competitor with eight wins. Obviously, Asmussen has many strong attributes
but despite all of his success, it’s still newly claimed runners and new
acquisitions that stand out as the strongest plays from this stable. Asmussen hits nearly 30 percent with his first-off-the-claim runners, with a similar
win rate from runners making their initial start for them.
Even though he got off to a slow start here, trainer Ian Wilkes has been the
hottest of all of late, having now won with seven-of-21 starters. Most of his success
has come with maidens and younger runners who are just now finding their proper
competitive racing levels.
The claiming frenzy continued unabated this week with 30 more horses taken at
the claiming box. Here are some of the more active conditioners.
Tom Amoss (4)
Michael Maker (3)
Scott Sowle (3)
Michael Tomlinson (3)
Hal Wiggins (2)
Merrill Scherer (2)
JOCKEYS
After week one, jockey Julien Leparoux looked like a cinch to win the Churchill
Downs’ riding title before promptly going into the tank in week two. Then Kent
Desormeaux became the focal point as he looked to be on his way to winning this
prestigious riding title for the first time in an illustrious career. Desormeaux
then fell off the map as well. Now, it’s Calvin Borel who sits atop the
standings with 20 wins despite having gone zero-for 12 at the beginning of the
meet. Leparoux in the meantime has rebounded with 19 wins and can still take
home the title before packing up his tack and moving on to California to test
his riding skills there. This guy is one of the best natural riders I’ve seen in
many years and his success in his new surroundings are all but assured. In fact,
it wouldn’t be surprising to see Leparoux on top of the California standings in
the very near future once his agent gets him in with the right connections.
RECENT CLAIMS TO WATCH
Wednesday (11/14)
3RD — JADED VIEW (Jade Hunter) didn’t make his career
debut until just last month at which time he showed some potential against
Keeneland maiden special weight company. The three-year-old colt turned in an improved effort today
after being dropped in for $30,000 and was claimed by trainer Tom Amoss. Amoss
will replace the current slumping rider which in itself will help move his new
charge forward. Plus, offspring of his sire, Jade Hunter (Mr. Prospector), don’t begin
maturing until early in their four-year-old season which means this colt is just
beginning to come into his own.
Thursday (11/15)
5TH — FIFTEEN ROUNDS (Fit to Fight) is a hard knocker, but it takes guts to claim a soon to be
eight-year-old gelding for $50 grand. However, trainer Scott Sowle is underrated when it comes to claims and obviously feels he can get this old timer to the winner’s circle quickly and
frequently.
Saturday (11/17)
1ST — FANFEST (Fantastic Light) has gained a bad habit of running just
well enough to lose by the slimmest of margins. Typically, a runner like this
would be avoid, but instead trainer Michael Tomlinson claimed her for a lofty
$50,000. Since this guy is no fool, we suspect that he has an idea on how to get
this one into the winner’s circle and soon.
2ND — WESTERN REVENGE (Gone West) has been racing non-stop
since April and this old timer now gets claimed by trainer Michael Maker. Maker took this
one for himself and will probably give him some time off to freshen up and bring
him back ready to run at the start of the new year.
Sunday (11/18)
2ND — SERAC (Gulch) was handicapped by having a slumping
rider in the irons today but still managed to turn in a respectable effort.
Maintained his non-winners of one lifetime status so is still eligible for that
classified claiming condition, which is probably one reason why trainer Merrill
Scherer took him.
5TH — FANTASTIC BUD (Grand Slam) is a talented three-year-old colt who was taken by
astute claiming trainer Nick Canani, who hits at a lofty number with his first-off-the-claim runners. Canani is especially effective at improving lightly raced
runners such as this one.
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (11/14)
7TH — CLANDESTINE FURY (Stormin Fever) doesn’t have
particularly strong off-track breeding yet still turned in a solid performance
when making his debut today over a substantially muddy racing surface. Beyond that,
he also had a rough-and-tumble trip and displayed an aggressive attitude while
never backing down. That’s the type of equine personality traits that produces
winners.
Thursday (11/15)
3RD — SECRET ENQUIRY (Sea of Secrets), a two-year-old filly, added blinkers today
after returning from a two-month vacation for trainer Forrest Kaelin. Managed to
turn in a solid place finish despite having a troubled trip after breaking from
the far outside.
4TH — LENAWEE (Albert the Great), who after breaking slowly in her debut
performance, made an impressive middle move before
understandably fading through the lane. That explosive show of speed signals a
horse who had the ability to win in the near future under almost any
circumstances. And, trainer Wikes is extremely hot right now.
Friday (11/16)
3RD — PURE CLASSY (Pure Prize) had the misfortune of being forced to
overcome a front runner who had established an easy lead setting plodding
fractions. For her part, this filly flashed excellent middle speed attempting to
come on late and will be a serious factor next time around with an honest pace
scenario.
5TH — BLACKPOOL (Captain Bodgit), a bottom-level claimer, turned in a solid
performance today going against a strong group in this starter allowance affair.
Trainer William Denzik isn’t well known, but does keep his runners in good form
once they reach their stride.
Saturday (11/17)
4TH — DYNAMALT (Dynaformer) was making just his third start for Mott and showed solid improvement in the process. Despite breaking from the
extreme outside post while being forced to chase a favorite with an easy lead,
this two-year-old colt was able to gain the place in what is a preview of much better
to come.
BEWARE OF THESE
Wednesday (11/14)
8TH — LORDLY (Victory Gallop) is a four-year-old filly bred and owned by the
same man. After 10 failed attempts at the non-winners of one allowance condition,
her connections still haven’t dropped her down to a level where she might
win as they obviously have an emotional bond with their homebred. That’s natural
and understandable. However, when or if she does drop to a claimer beware as
it’s probably due to necessity and the chances of success will have been greatly
diminished.
Friday (11/16)
1ST — FOUR FOURS (Distorted Humor) is a well-bred three-year-old gelding who cost his
connections $150,000, which was well below the $225,000 asking price for his
sire’s services. This often signals troubled confirmation which in turn will
create physical problems once the rigors of racing starts. That is what we have
here as each time out this horse subsequently needs time off to recuperate.
Today going against $15,000 claimers, he turned in what looks like a solid
third-place performance but
even if he does come back in reasonable amount of time, the chances of a forward
progression are against him and he’ll be short odds.
Saturday (11/17)
5TH — DEVIL’S MISCHIEF (Devil’s Bag), a three-year-old filly, had the lead along
the inside coming inside the eighth pole and had dead aim on the winner’s circle.
However, her jockey was riding very gingerly as if every step may be her last.
Eventually she faded quickly to fifth place and we would view her with skepticism next time
out.